Chinese mobile phones bid farewell to the golden age
In the past year, the global mobile phone consumer market has become bleak. Manufacturers are digging their heads to stimulate purchase impulse, but user demand has only trickled down and narrowed.
Facing manufacturers' production lines running at full capacity, the trickle is ruthless. It gave way to the global king of shipments at the head of the market, Samsung shut down its factories, and profit margin winner Apple slashed orders; it also broke the undefeated myth of "getting the channel to get the world" and giving way to the rising star OPPO in the middle of the market. And vivo ushered in a rare staged decline; after Xiaomi landed in the capital market, the ups and downs have also made Gionee, Hammer, Meizu, and Meitu, who are constrained by internal and external troubles, like autumn leaves, walking on the edge of elimination.
This kind of cleaning has made entrepreneurs understand a lot. Entrusting the destiny to the ups and downs of the market is ultimately not the way. Technology and innovation show unprecedented importance; scale is the prerequisite for everything, and “feelings” and “high-end” without strength support are hooligans; seeking others is better than seeking yourself, in fact, the best Rescue is self-help...The beautiful scenery makes them feel ashamed and sober. Their emotions changed from optimism and upward to pessimism and silence, and they managed to control their direction at the moment when they were almost stranded until they were calm.
"Human life is rushing like a flood, and it is difficult to arouse beautiful waves without encountering islands and reefs." Ostrovsky actively persuaded the world to regard difficulties as "waves", but Chinese smartphone entrepreneurs have encountered problems. But the hardships are insurmountable, leaving a paragraph of sorrowful story and the final game to be solved.
Charan
On March 17, 2018, Beijing ushered in the first snow of the entire winter. This snow came unexpectedly and made sense. Isn't this twilight snow falling in the mobile phone market in 2018?
At the beginning of the year, existing data showed that the global smartphone shipments had declined for the first time in history. The overall shipment of 1.462 billion has been loosened by 7.31 million units. However, just like that late spring snow can't make people feel bitter, the 0.5% decline is just an inflection point, not a gully, it is a signal that has already appeared, but is not enough to shock the entire market.
Shen Wei, the founder, president and CEO of vivo, is very satisfied with the results of 2017: the entire team has just completed the goal of annual sales exceeding 100 million yuan, and the 36% growth rate is also the fastest among the world's top five mobile phone manufacturers. At the company's annual dinner, he will emphasize that the total mobile phone market will continue to shrink in single digits, and the cost of raw materials will also rise sharply. The future business situation is full of challenges, but he believes that this will not affect vivo. "Difficult crises are often the best time to turn crises into opportunities!" Shen Wei is full of confidence.
After hearing Shen Wei's summary, the employees returned to the work station with cheer-faced faces and continued to charge. Their confidence is not unreasonable: On February 1, the X20 Plus, the world's first under-screen fingerprint recognition mobile phone, will be released. This arrangement allows the pace of vivo innovation to surpass that of Huawei, OPPO, and competitors such as Apple and Samsung.
Huawei is also throbbing. Since the shipment volume just broke 100 million in 2015, the shipment volume in 2016 has grown to 139 million units, and in 2017 it exceeded 153 million units. Huawei has no trend of slowing down at all. How can this sweetness stop? After the festival, Huawei immediately released the latest products Huawei P20 and P20 Pro in Paris, France.
In addition, Samsung, Meizu, Xiaomi, Honor... The desire of mobile phone manufacturers to compete for the market is not inferior to previous years. Every manufacturer has a killer, or they all use the slogan of "not enough" to break the cost-effective casserole. This is obviously a lively spring. What is the fear of a snow? So the wilds and wilds are still happy and peaceful, and the manufacturers are complacent.
Silver Cold
The warm air in March was unfinished, and suddenly a manufacturer sounded the alarm, and Gionee had a problem.
Under the trouble of a series of negative information such as supplier OFILM’s application for property preservation, the freezing of the chairman’s equity by the court, and the suspension of employee wages, Gionee, which is struggling, has become insolvent. A large amount of funds could not be transferred to the central system, making Gionee Industrial Park gradually cold. In the 258 acres of factory area by the lake in Dalingshan Town, Dongguan City, the hope of survival is like a bean.
The chairman of the company Liu Lirong no longer saw his signature smile, and he began to worry. In an interview with the media, he attributed the cause of Gionee's rollover to the 12 variety shows and TV series sponsored between 2016 and 2017, and regretted that the six spokespersons failed to restore product sales. After squeezing out trader Lu Weibing, the burden can only be left to Yu Lei, who is in charge of marketing and publicity-6 billion yuan in marketing expenses, what a big hole!
"I will not run away. The debt will be repaid step by step." Liu Lirong is as optimistic as ever. He firmly believes that the remaining 50% of employees can get a place in the blind spot market of manufacturers such as OPPO and vivo, but this is too optimistic.
According to third-party data, global smartphone shipments in the first quarter of 2018 were 345 million units, down 2.4% from the same period last year. What is even more frightening is that the domestic third- and fourth-tier markets suddenly "closed stores", and a large number of channel vendors have lost their adsorption power, causing the loss of users to be extremely prominent.
Faced with the sudden loss of customers, even if they risked smashing goods and lowering prices and being fined by suppliers, they must clean up their inventory as soon as possible to quickly induce panic in the delivery link. During this period, 50% of the channel vendors were eliminated, and the elimination rate in some areas was as high as 80%.
Physical channels are the main positions of OPPO and vivo. They also quickly sensed the cold, and suffered serious losses in this “closing store wave”. In the first quarter, the sales of the two manufacturers in the domestic market fell by 16.8% and 13.8%, respectively. Even in the middle of the year, the media predicted that OPPO and vivo's annual shipments will decline by 5%, and the "Silver Age" is so cold.
As early as 2011, Xiaomi took the concept of Internet mobile phones and opened the curtain of online marketing. Traditional mobile phone manufacturers competed to imitate and achieved great results. Five years later, online marketing failed, and OPPO and vivo rejuvenated the value of physical channels; Two years later, the energy efficiency of physical channels is also degrading, where is the next shore? Every one of them seems to be the correct answer, but none of them seem to be.
The coordinates are blurred, followed by fear-induced rumors and various adjustments to avoid panic. In mid-to-late April, the media suddenly revealed that 360 plans to spin off the tepid mobile phone business, and Luo Yonghao became a picker. The resignation of Yao Jue, deputy general manager and financial leader of 360 mobile phone department, and Liao Qinghong, deputy general manager, was precisely Zhou Hongyi paving the way for the transfer.
It's just that the rumors overestimated Luo Yonghao's savings and underestimated Zhou Hongyi's adoration of mobile phones. The hammer is still relying on the capital market to support its life, and it has been shameful for a long time; the president of 360 mobile phone Li Kaixin is busy developing new N series products, and has no time to take into account the floating sound, which quickly lost the foundation of the rumors.
"I don't know what the xx website is, and I am not afraid of being slapped in the face." Zhou Hongyi drowned the rumors with foul language, but did not stop the panic from continuing to wander.
At the beginning of May, Yang Yuanqing, chairman and CEO of Lenovo Group, issued an internal email announcing the establishment of a smart device business group, integrating the original personal computer and smart device business group, mobile business group, and the original data center business group. Within Lenovo, this is a business restructuring triggered by personnel adjustments. However, it is generally believed that Lenovo has assigned two helpers to the mobile business group, personal computer and data center business, in order to make the performance of the declining mobile business unit less so. Unsightly-yes, in the first quarter of 2018, the combined global shipments of Lenovo and MOTO were only 9.56 million units.
Faced with a sudden market decline, manufacturers do not want to give up the opportunity in the mobile market, but they can't find an ideal solution, so they have to evasive or even keep silent.
Fury of the Twin Cities
When everyone was eager to find a way out, the communications industry experienced two huge shocks around ZTE and Lenovo.
On April 16, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that ZTE had received a rejection order for violating U.S. regulations. ZTE would not be able to purchase parts, products, software, and components from U.S. companies within 7 years before March 13, 2025. technology. For the mobile phone sector, this means that ZTE will not be able to use Qualcomm processors, Broadcom's baseband chips, and Google's Android system and other products and solutions.
According to media investigations, ZTE’s official website and Tmall flagship store website immediately removed various terminal products, and the Shenzhen headquarters’ direct-sale stores also kept pace. Only JD.com was able to find sales pages. The mature market division of labor, complete industrial chain coordination, and years of industry accumulation were still defeated by technological blockade in an instant.
Seeing that batches of mobile phones continue to be taken off the shelves and the sales of other products and solutions have been suspended one after another, Hou Weigui, the 76-year-old founder of ZTE, also stepped forward to defend rights.
ZTE's mood has not yet calmed down, and Yang Yuanqing's mood has been stirred up again. Some media have revealed the so-called “foundation” of Lenovo, claiming that in 2016, in the voting meeting of the 5G standard organization 3GPP, Lenovo and its subsidiary Motorola Mobile abstained from voting for the Polar solution led by Huawei. This move caused Huawei to lose the opportunity to formulate 5G low-level standards by one vote, and the accumulated R&D investment for several years was wasted.
"Lenovo is a Chinese company, can't it be the Huawei platform of the national brand?" Many cross-examinations captured Yang Yuanqing's Weibo, which also isolated Lenovo from the opposite of mainstream values. This matter has been fermented for several days, and the focus of the dispute has long been out of the essence of fact. The emotions of all parties are held up and kidnapped, forcing Lenovo to the moral judgment stand.
Temporarily erratic. Facing the chaotic situation, Lenovo's spiritual leader Liu Chuanzhi was ordered to help the building. He regarded "Demon Wind" as a "premeditated" slander, and called on all Lenovo people to take action, determined to take off the hat on his head. "All my colleagues must actively contribute ideas and suggestions, unite as one, share the same hatred, and swear to win this Lenovo honor defense battle!" Liu Chuanzhi.
One is the suppression of external forces, and the other is the crusade by public opinion. Both ZTE and Lenovo are in trouble.
Liu Chuanzhi is a quick-tempered entrepreneur, and he also found a way out before ZTE.
In order to win the war, Liu Chuanzhi launched his own circle of friends. New Hope Liu Yonghao, 360 Zhou Hongyi, Alibaba Jack Ma, Jingdong Liu Qiangdong and others soon began to support Lenovo. Even Huawei Ren Zhengfei also said that “Lenovo’s practices in the 5G standard voting process have no problems.” Liu Chuanzhi will abruptly. The battle of reputation changed to a battle of slogans.
Waiting for the fever to go down in the controversy and stalemate. After all, such a fruitless quarrel will become boring the longer it is delayed. "We unanimously believe that Chinese companies should unite and cannot be provoked by outsiders." Summing up the matter, Liu Chuanzhi said.
In contrast, ZTE is more difficult. After nearly two months of arguing, the two sides finally found a solution: the US Department of Commerce removed ZTE from the ban list, but ZTE would have to pay a $1 billion fine for this. Faced with the technological blockade that cannot be passed, ZTE signed an alliance under the city.
Reflection
After the turmoil between ZTE and Lenovo, the sentiment that dominates the mobile phone industry is nothing but consternation.
Judging by the trend in the first quarter, the era dominated by increments is over, and the market share of rivals is not captured, and survival will be unprecedentedly bitter; Lenovo’s lessons learned prove that in the past ecological chain, users are prey and mobile phone manufacturers are predators. At the moment, it seems that mobile phone manufacturers have become prey and patent giants are the predators-patents are the weak and the strong. This is the new "Silver Age" rule of survival.
Hammer, Meitu Xiuxiu, Meizu, and those manufacturers that regard "small and beautiful" as their biggest advantages have all hit the rocks, and technical capabilities and patent reserves have become "entry tickets" for the new era.
In the face of reality, manufacturers have not lost their due calmness. The disappearance of increments is an objective fact, and they cannot be reversed and must be faced; they cannot make up for technical shortcomings, they can only be crops waiting to be harvested, and they will never have the right to choose. Therefore, the leading companies in the market have begun to continuously develop in the technical link. force.
Data shows that as of the second quarter of 2018, Samsung, Huawei, Apple, Xiaomi, and OPPO have become the top five manufacturers in global shipments. OPPO ranked fifth with 29.4 million units. After that, all manufacturers only shipped 11.37 million units.
"With grain in hand, don't panic in my heart." In the middle of the year, manufacturers supported by shipments started an arms race with patented technology. Huawei was the first to join the revolution, or Huawei has never left the revolution.
Xiaomi did not appear in the list, but according to its prospectus submitted on May 3, its patent reserve has exceeded 16,000 items, of which 50% of the content has been authorized overseas, and it has signed cross-licensing with companies such as Microsoft and Nokia. protocol. Including the two patent giants Samsung and Apple, the top five manufacturers in shipments are all "changing faces."
The turmoil of mobile phone manufacturers will soon update the momentum to the industry chain. In the first half of 2018, OFILM’s R&D investment was 1.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32%; Luxshare Precision’s investment reached 1.542 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67%; Lens Technology’s investment reached 866 million yuan, which has reached the same period Twice the net profit-manufacturers who insist on alive, no one wants to be eliminated.
"In the future, in the global mobile phone market, there will be no more than 5 mobile phone brands with sufficient influence." Seeing the decline of mobile phone manufacturers, Honor President Zhao Ming was quite moved.
Bloody rivers and lakes
The winter of 2018 was earlier than previous years, and many companies failed to withstand the external cold.
At the end of November, Meitu, which tried its best to boost sales, finally chose to give up. The brand, imaging technology and second-level domain name of its Meitu mobile phone were packaged and attributed to Xiaomi;
One month later, Gao Dongzhen, president of Samsung's communications department, said that he wanted to protect the "important market" of China, but he put a seal on the Tianjin factory with a production capacity of 36 million units/year;
Seeing the continued decline in shipments, Liu Lirong also admitted to the fact that he gambled. When the court sent the bankruptcy determination, the company’s total liabilities had reached 20.253 billion yuan and there were 648 creditors;
Meizu, who was tortured by complicated personnel relations back and forth, had to wait anxiously for the renewal of funds from the local government at this time...sorrowful and helpless.
And Luo Yonghao's hammer has been living in rumors of bankruptcy.
The manufacturers that failed to withstand the cold of the market retreated sadly, but the remaining manufacturers were also secretly anxious, and the pressure came mainly from Qualcomm.
Not long ago, Qualcomm released its fourth-quarter financial report for the 2018 fiscal year. The content shows that the company’s revenue was 5.8 billion U.S. dollars, down 2% from the 5.9 billion U.S. dollars in the same period last year; the net loss was 500 million U.S. dollars, and the net profit in the same period last year was 200 million U.S. dollars. Regardless of the equipment and services sector, or the patent licensing sector, Both have declined to varying degrees.
The cold market soon made upstream manufacturers feel the pressure, but it did not let the
The patent giant shrank, but started the "attack mode" more radically, and the pressure continued to pass downward.
Before launching the 5G program, Qualcomm has announced the 5G mobile phone patent authorization program and the Internet of Things charging standards. According to the latest licensing plan, mobile phone manufacturers and Internet of Things products still cannot avoid Qualcomm tax, setting the patent fee between 2.275% and 5% (the levy is capped at US$400). "The number of our 5G license agreements is growing, and more than 20 new agreements have been signed based on the previous license framework of 5G." The declining report did not affect the mood of Qualcomm CEO Steve Mollenkopf, and the Android camp is still highly cooperative , Which also makes Qualcomm more happy to replicate an old world in the new era.
In contrast, Apple is not very "obedient." The declining shipment volume has caused the trader Tim Cook to smash orders, cut prices, and increase service fees. This inevitably makes his supply chain troubled for a long time in a worried state of mind, and makes Apple itself appear in unprecedented embarrassment. . At this moment, Qualcomm's tightness made him feel extremely bad.
"Qualcomm's actions are illegal, and regulatory agencies in many countries agree with our views." In the face of Qualcomm's blockade, Cook expressed his attitude.
Right now, the arena is still that arena, the leader is still the leader, and the rules are still the same set of rules. The difference is that the market is tight, and the arena has become a battlefield for life and death, and the way of competition will only be more bayonet. Only the strong can survive, otherwise they have to fall into the blood pool of the "Silver Age".
Looking back at 2018, it started beautifully and ended very sadly. A year's time has turned a colorful world into today's loneliness and desertedness, and the industry is increasingly lacking surprises, but this may be the definite number. Those familiar faces cling to their own fixed numbers and eventually survive. This is the fixed number of the entire industry.