Challenges of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Construction
The "Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Urban Cluster Development Plan" will be released soon. The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will focus on building into a global technological innovation center, a global advanced manufacturing center, an international financial shipping and an international trade center in the future. The development of the economy of the Greater Bay Area has been the “standard configuration” of the world’s economic powers. For example, the world’s three well-known economies in the Bay Area: New York Bay Area, San Francisco Bay Area, and Tokyo Bay Area have highlighted the strong economic and national strength of the United States and Japan. , And the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area also demonstrates that China’s economic strength and national strength have gradually entered the stage of "big and strong".
Shen Minghao, a senior researcher at the Guangdong Institute of International Strategy and the dean of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Research Institute, said that the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area occupies an important position in Asian cooperation. "China is the world's largest country in trade in goods, while Guangdong accounts for more than a quarter of the country's import and export of goods, and the trade volume between the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and ASEAN accounts for more than one-third of the country."
“At present, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area accounts for 0.58% of China’s area and 5% of the population, contributing 12.8% of GDP, more than a quarter of the import and export volume, and more than half of the patents. Authorized, it is expected that in five or six years, the total economic volume will reach 1.9 trillion US dollars and become the largest scale in the world.” Speaking of the development trend of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Shen Minghao said that Guangdong’s advantage lies in its cooperation with Hong Kong and Macao. The alliance of the free ports can fully contribute to the smooth connection of the supply chain throughout Asia.
With the appreciation of opportunities and the blessing of time, the future development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has given the outside world many fantasies and visions. However, in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, supported by one country, two systems, three currencies and four major cities, institutional barriers are undoubtedly the main obstacles that need to be overcome. The so-called "the future is bright, and the road is tortuous." In addition to institutional barriers, the future construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will also face the following four major challenges.
First, it is more difficult for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to "unify with the masses" and coordination is not easy. Not only under "One Country, Two Systems", the coordination between the nine cities of Guangdong (Guangzhou, Foshan, Zhaoqing, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Huizhou, Zhuhai, Zhongshan, Jiangmen) and the two SAR governments of Hong Kong and Macau is due to differences in systems, laws, and cultures. Faced with challenges, even among the nine cities in Guangdong, it will be difficult to coordinate actions due to the interests of the respective cities. If the coordination mechanism is not established effectively, the inter-city flow and docking of production factors such as talent, capital flow, logistics, and information flow between cities will be difficult to smooth. How easy is it to realize the integrated development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area?
In this regard, some scholars have proposed that to solve the problem of difficult coordination, they can refer to the experience of the euro area countries and set up an overall coordination group to establish a strong coordination mechanism to overcome the obstacles to the real interconnection and integrated development of cities. But this suggestion is easier said than done. The success of the coordination mechanism depends on "unity as one" rather than "unity of diversity". Having a single political system, a single currency, the pursuit of common interests and common development goals are the prerequisites for success. There are 18 countries in the euro area. The “diversity and unity” of the euro area is like a mosaic composed of different ethnic groups and cultures. For many years, the member states of the euro area have been unable to say that they are united and acted in concert. Let alone the development of integration.
In the past ten years, there have been more and more incoordinations among the member states of the Eurozone that "everyone is for me, and I am only for me". For example, Greece, Portugal and other weaker countries in the euro area, relying on the umbrella of the euro area and under the guarantee of the euro area, have borrowed a lot and excessively created credit. This has not only led to high inflation, increased operating costs, and hurt international competition. It also triggered high debts of some member states and huge government deficits, which led to the outbreak of the European debt crisis in 2010.
What is even more surprising is that after the outbreak of the European debt crisis, the governments and citizens of some euro area countries are not looking for how to solve the problem, but for how to leave the euro area. There have been talks of “Brexit” in Greece, the Netherlands and other countries in the market. For example, Greece calls “Brexit” “Grexit” and the Netherlands calls “Nexit”. After Brexit, Greece and the Netherlands can decide on their own exchange rate appreciation. And depreciation in order to increase foreign trade exports and promote economic development.
Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
How to save the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge?
If the bridge is just a bridge, the problem is naturally difficult to solve, but if the bridge is not a bridge, putting "kung fu" outside the bridge may help solve the development dilemma of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge.
The above-mentioned actions of governments and citizens have caused many governments and citizens of Eurozone member states to question whether it is worth fighting for other member states, generous taxpayers in their own country, and burdened with huge costs for the "poor relatives" who are "good eat and lazy". Furthermore, the Eurozone has begun to appear "unorganized" and "disciplined" trends, which easily pushes the Eurozone alliance to the edge of a cliff.
If individual cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will "sweep their doors" or "passively sabotage" like Greece and Portugal in the future, "saying is equal to doing" during the construction of the Greater Bay Area, how can they be properly done? deal with? Should the principal officials of individual cities be punished or expelled from their "district registration" in the Greater Bay Area? This is worth thinking about by planners in the Greater Bay Area.
Second, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area may not be able to attract the continuous participation of outstanding talents at home and abroad. To build the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area into a global technological innovation center, a global advanced manufacturing center, an international financial shipping and an international trade center, what is most lacking is not funds and projects, but talents and ideas. Looking around the world, talents and ideas are particularly precious for the development of technological innovation industries and advanced manufacturing industries.
With countries all over the world entering the battle for top talents, providing high-paying jobs, a suitable living and working environment are just the most basic attractive factors. The decisive factor is the long-term development vision. This will enable top foreign talents to be willing to serve in the long-term. Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.
However, the vision of top foreign talents is often not the same concept as the vision of the Chinese. China’s development plans are usually more adaptable, organic and flexible, less mechanical and deterministic, and the result of things is often a combination of various factors. The product of the gathering of forces. However, foreign talents, especially the top talents in North America and Western Europe, are more "a rib". The plan in their minds needs to clearly define the goal, and then set a step-by-step plan to achieve this plan, mobilize the necessary resources, and then move towards Go forward with the established goals.
Therefore, although the "cake" planned for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is large enough, it is still necessary to "cross the river by feeling the stones" step by step to explore the direction in the future. For top foreign talents, the current plan is inevitably "mysterious" and "empty", and it is intangible. How to set clear short-, medium-, and long-term directions and goals to attract them to serve in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area for a long time will also test the wisdom of the Greater Bay Area planners.
In addition, the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area emphasizes the interconnection of production factors. However, if a large number of talents in the Greater Bay Area flock to the four major cities of Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Macau, this will not be beneficial to the overall development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. , Eurozone countries have learned relevant lessons.
For example, the debt crisis in Eurozone countries such as Greece, Portugal, and Spain, leading to economic stagnation, is rooted in the huge difference in unit labor costs between these countries and other Eurozone countries, resulting in a risk premium (Risk Premium) problem. The labor force continues to move abroad, and a large amount of capital and technology are also transferred to other countries in the Eurozone. This undoubtedly seriously damages the economy. Economic setbacks will affect the decline in government taxation and fiscal revenue. The reduction in government revenue will naturally reduce government expenditure and investment. In turn, it further impacts the economy.
If a similar situation occurs in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in the future, talents in Foshan, Zhaoqing, Dongguan, Huizhou, Zhuhai, Zhongshan, Jiangmen and other cities will bring their technology and capital to central and developed cities, then Foshan, Zhaoqing, etc. Will the future development of the city be hindered? This deserves vigilance among planners in the Greater Bay Area.
If the problem is not solved well, it may force Foshan, Zhaoqing and other seven cities to adopt a more extreme "Bumiputraism" (Bumiputraism) policy, and retain talents through more preferential policies and treatments. If these talents receive special treatment, there will be a series of sequelae. For example, the city will show a state of duality, making most people with low skills and low education prejudice to work. These people are not only marginalized in the economic field, but also Being excluded from mainstream society, the greater the polarization, the more it affects social stability.
Third, the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area may impact the development of surrounding cities in the Greater Bay Area. Although in the long run, the establishment of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area can spread and radiate to cities outside the Greater Bay Area through the "diffusion effect", and drive economic growth in the surrounding areas. These surrounding cities can in turn further promote the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. The development of the district forms a cyclical accumulation process that gradually rises. However, in the initial, mid- and short-term terms, the Greater Bay Area is prone to "echo effect" (an analysis of economic behavior of the difference in the income of production factors, which refers to the flow of production factors from backward areas to developed areas, resulting in further expansion of the development gap between regions. , The adverse impact of the priority development of economically developed areas on other backward areas) is likely to affect the development of surrounding cities.
This is because under policy tilt, all parties have vigorously promoted the development of the Greater Bay Area. Economic resources and production factors are concentrated in the Greater Bay Area. The surrounding underdeveloped or relatively backward cities will suffer from policy imbalances and resource, The loss of production factors has further widened the development gap between cities.
Related situations are not uncommon in developed countries. For example, the article "Regional Advantage: Culture and Competition in Silicon Valley and Route 128" conducted in-depth and thorough investigation and analysis of two major high-tech industrial regions in the United States, and compared the two regions in detail. Differences, try to explain how the San Francisco Bay Area has become synonymous with “high-tech” and the new darling of many venture capital funds, while the 128 Highway area in Boston has become relatively backward and lost its competitive advantage. Another example is the article "The Global City: New York, London, Tokyo", which introduces in detail the situation and reasons of the differences and competition within and outside the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan.
Therefore, while vigorously promoting planning, planners in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area need to think about how to coordinate the priority development of the Greater Bay Area and the relationship between its adverse effects on the surrounding backward areas.
Fourth, does the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area have enough fault-tolerant mechanisms to build it into a world's technological innovation center?
Looking around the world, whether it is scientific research and innovation or the creation of innovative companies, they often encounter various problems, with more failures than success. If the scientific innovators and entrepreneurial failures are allowed to fend for themselves, it will not only damage the atmosphere of innovation and entrepreneurship, but also detrimental to the development of innovative technology industries, and will not promote the development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area into the world's technological innovation center.
In the planning of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, if the temporary failure of technological innovation not caused by moral hazard is not given to provide assistance and protection in terms of company dissolution, bank arrears, tax burden, employee severance, bankruptcy liquidation, etc., then , Why do technology innovators risk starting businesses in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area? It must be clearly recognized that only adequate assistance and safeguards can reduce the worries of innovation and entrepreneurs, and give the losers a chance to make a comeback in the future.
Examples of this are everywhere. For example, San Diego in the United States is one of the top biotechnology centers in the world. On average, there are about 500 biotechnology companies in the area throughout the year, even if there are many biotechnology companies every year. The company failed or was newly established, but the area will still maintain a number of about 500 companies. Why is there such a peculiar number? That's because one of the most important characteristics of the success of the San Diego biotechnology industry is that there are industry associations and government support systems to help those failed companies rejuvenate and ultimately help them succeed.
Moreover, there will not be only one Greater Bay Area in China in the future. In addition to the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, the construction of the Hangzhou Bay Greater Bay Area and the construction of the Bohai Bay Area have all been or will be on the agenda, regardless of each Greater Bay Area. Regardless of the plan, technological innovation will become the focus of all major bay areas, and technological innovation enterprises will also be the targets of competition among major bay areas.
This is because even if an innovative idea or an innovative product is temporarily deemed "failed" in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, it does not necessarily mean that the construction in the Hangzhou Bay Greater Bay Area or the Bohai Bay Area will not be accepted or be deemed a "failure". ".
Entrepreneurship experiences around the world have also shown that the success rate of entrepreneurs who fail to start a business next time is usually higher than that of first-time entrepreneurs. Only those who fail to innovate due to moral hazard, entrepreneurs who have succeeded in innovation and entrepreneurship are more strongly supported The odds are greater.
Therefore, if the lack of assistance and safeguards in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area leads to the conversion of technological innovation enterprises to the construction of the Hangzhou Bay Greater Bay Area and the development of the Bohai Bay Area, will it lead to mutual consumption among various regions in China? This is also a question worth pondering by the planners of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.
Of course, the "Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Urban Agglomeration Development Plan" has not yet been announced. Planners may have found solutions to the above-mentioned challenges. This is something I am very happy to see, and of course it is also the future development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. Fortunately.
After all, although China is called an "emerging country" by the West, as one of the birthplaces of the world's four major civilizations, it has experienced rapid development in recent years after many years of silence. In fact, it is a "renaissance" and not just "emerging." From the perspective of long-term historical development, most Western countries may be "emerging" countries.