Asean's steady economic growth has a strong momentum of cooperation with China
In 2024, ASEAN countries' foreign trade will continue to recover, domestic demand will show resilience, consumption and tourism will pick up, and their economies will maintain steady growth. But some in ASEAN are concerned that the new U.S. administration's protectionist policies risk undermining the bloc's economic momentum and driving up inflation.
Some ASEAN officials point out that ASEAN's stellar economic performance is due to the strong momentum of cooperation with China. To overcome future risks and challenges and seize economic development opportunities, ASEAN should further deepen and expand cooperation with China in various fields and build a closer China-Asean community of shared future.
Steady economic growth has shown resilience
Asean has a population of more than 600 million and a gross domestic product of nearly $4 trillion. With the acceleration of industrialization and digital transformation, ASEAN has become one of the regions with stable economic growth in the world in recent years.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on December 11 released a supplementary report to its Asian Development Outlook 2024, raising its forecast for Southeast Asia's economic growth in 2024 from 4.5% to 4.7%. From the regional country level, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia and other countries in 2024 economic growth is expected to be more impressive. The Singapore-based ASEAN Plus Three Macroeconomic Research Office released its latest quarterly report in October, forecasting ASEAN economic growth of 4.7 percent in 2024 and 4.9 percent in 2025.
Indonesia's Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Ellanga Hartato, recently said that in the past 10 years, the average economic growth rate in the ASEAN region has been 4% to 5%. Today, ASEAN is the fifth largest economy in the world. Thanks to its political stability and commitment to multilateral cooperation, ASEAN has become a stable regional cooperation platform in the Asia-Pacific region.
Malayan Investment Bank released a report in early December, pointing out that driven by multiple positive factors such as further improvement in manufacturing and exports, rising foreign direct investment, rapid development of data centers in the ASEAN region, continued recovery of tourism and China's deployment of a package of incremental policies, Asean countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam are expected to maintain steady economic growth. The report emphasizes that at present, the ASEAN region is accelerating the construction of data centers, effectively stimulating ASEAN countries to invest in renewable energy, and related industries are gradually becoming new growth points in Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand and other countries.
At the same time, ASEAN's economic development still faces challenges. Some observers believe that factors such as rising protectionism and heightened geopolitical uncertainty could undermine the stability of global supply chains and normal trade flows, a concern exacerbated by the return of unilateralist, protectionist policies under the new US administration.
Xu Heyi, chief economist of the ASEAN Plus Three Macroeconomic Research Office, pointed out that the new US administration may escalate protectionist policies, which will be one of the main risks to ASEAN's economic growth. Mr Erlanga said there could be policy conflicts between Asean and the new US administration. "Us President-elect Donald Trump values bilateral relations more than multilateral relations. But ASEAN countries believe that multilateralism will lead to shared prosperity." Chen Chengjie, research manager of Malaysia Merdeka Polling Center, believes that the new US government will prioritize the interests of American companies and support local manufacturing by means of tariffs, which will bring more uncertainty to global trade.
We reached consensus on deepening cooperation with China
Asean officials pointed out that in the face of risks and challenges, ASEAN should further deepen and expand cooperation with China in various fields, maintain the strong momentum of cooperation with China, build a closer China-Asean community of shared future, and safeguard regional peace, stability and prosperity.
In recent years, economic and trade cooperation between China and ASEAN has continued to develop. China has remained ASEAN's largest trading partner for 15 consecutive years, and ASEAN has been China's largest trading partner for four consecutive years. Statistics from China's General Administration of Customs show that in the first 11 months of 2024, the total value of trade between China and ASEAN reached 6.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.6 percent year-on-year.
At present, China and Indonesia have reached important consensus on building a community of shared future with regional and global influence. The Jakarta-Bandung high-speed Railway, a key project of Belt and Road cooperation, has ushered Indonesia into the "era of high-speed rail". The building of a bilateral and multilateral community with a shared future with Malaysia and the Mekong countries has reached a new high. Steady progress has been made in the construction of the East Coast Railway in Malaysia undertaken by Chinese companies. The China-Laos railway has seen both passenger and cargo growth, and the China-Laos-Thailand international cargo train has officially launched. Negotiations on upgrading the 3.0 version of the China-Asean Free Trade Area have substantially concluded...
Asean Secretary-General Koh Kim Hong said recently that infrastructure construction plays an important role in promoting trade, and projects such as the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway and the China-Laos railway are successful examples of cooperation between ASEAN and China, hoping that the two sides will continue to strengthen cooperation in infrastructure construction, while strengthening supply chain connectivity, and help ASEAN maintain economic competitiveness and resilience.
Hou Yanqi, China's ambassador to ASEAN, told reporters that China and ASEAN are interdependent and closely linked. During her exchanges with ASEAN officials, they talked most about peace, stability, development and cooperation, and most hoped for adherence to genuine multilateralism, open regionalism and inclusive development. To strengthen cooperation and achieve common development between China and ASEAN is in line with the interests of regional countries and people's expectations.