Depth report

　　

Because of Singapore’s position and practices on the South China Sea issue, Chinese officials and media have rarely publicly expressed dissatisfaction and anger against Singapore some time ago. Singapore feels aggrieved and believes that it has been misunderstood, and has explained and defended it through various channels. One of the most important reasons is that Singapore implements a great power balance strategy and treats China and the United States equally. Singapore has repeatedly emphasized that abiding by international law is only expounding its own principles, and has no intention of targeting China...

    The key to the balance of great powers is balance. From the perspective of physical movement, interpersonal communication, or international relations, balance is never easy. Everyone wants to balance, but imbalance is the norm. In the past few decades, Singapore’s great power balance strategy has been successful because of the favorable conditions, the right time, the people and the people, and these conditions are generally available.

    The international status that Singapore has today is inseparable from Lee Kuan Yew's personal ability and contribution. Lee Kuan Yew is a world-class politician. His contributions to Singapore are concentrated in two aspects: transforming a small cargo transshipment port whose main population is coolie into a clean, efficient, and law-stricken global financial center and trading center. In man’s time he has achieved a leap from the third world to the first world; from democracy to global governance, from India’s future to China’s reform and opening up, he has his own clear, clear and insightful views, thus greatly improving Singapore International influence. Former U.S. Secretary of State Kissinger commented, "Lee Kuan Yew is an indispensable friend of the United States, mainly not because of the power he represents, but because of his extraordinary thinking. His analysis is very good, very deep, and other The leaders of the country believe that meeting with him is a way to receive enlightenment."

    In terms of specific international political operations, Lee Kuan Yew knew very well where the boundaries of balance lie. He insisted on whipping American teenagers who graffiti in Singapore, but he was unambiguous in inviting American military forces to stay in Singapore. He would also criticize China, but he would establish diplomatic relations with China in 1990 after the political turmoil and criticize it. Hong Kong democrats have no sense of reality. Obviously, he can distinguish what is the core interest of the other party, what is the second-level interest, which can be touched, and which can not be touched. This kind of judgment is the core competitiveness of "Balancer". In fact, because balance is not easy to obtain, the top masters in international relations have always been able to play balance. For example, Bismarck, who played the game of "five goals without falling" between Britain, Russia, France, Austria, and Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai, who chose the opportunity to establish diplomatic relations with the United States under the situation of Soviet offensive and defense, and Tito, who was in the East and West during the Cold War.

    Therefore, Singapore’s achievements in national governance, Lee Kuan Yew’s personal charisma, and the recognition of Singapore from other countries, coupled with superb international political skills, are the fundamental reasons why Singapore can play the balance between great powers. But now, these factors have faded to varying degrees, making balance not so easy.

    First of all, Lee Kuan Yew has passed away in March 2015, and he is leaving with unrepeatable insight and international influence. To today’s leaders of various countries, including China and the United States, Lee Kuan Yew is likely to be an iconic figure who has been familiar from his youth. He has a halo of his own. They are willing to listen to his opinions and give Singapore to Singapore when facing specific problems Stay affectionate. Lee Hsien Loong is a lot unfamiliar to them, so he is more of an official business. Not only that, in dealing with some specific issues, today's Singapore governance team is obviously much rougher than in Lee Kuan Yew's time. In this case, the balance strategy of the same great power has completely different effects.

    Second, Singapore's own development achievements are facing tests. On the one hand, the prospects for a new round of economic transformation in Singapore are uncertain. In the first three quarters of this year, Singapore’s GDP continued to grow negatively, especially in the third quarter, which fell by 4.1% from the previous quarter, the worst performance since the third quarter of 2012. The Monetary Authority of Singapore stated that it does not expect the country's GDP growth to rebound significantly in 2017. The short-term economic decline is not terrible, but the data also shows that in recent years, Singapore’s economic growth has lacked motivation from innovation and technology, indicating that the prospects for economic transformation are not clear. And sustained economic success is crucial to Singapore’s international status and maintaining its attractiveness to talents.

    For Singapore, national identity and cultural identity are still in the process of constructing. People come to Singapore to work and live largely because of various practical benefits. Therefore, if Singapore wants to maintain its attractiveness, it must work miracles, constantly moving from one success to another without making mistakes. In the past, it was precisely because of Singapore’s outstanding performance in hard power such as the economy that people were willing to listen when it said something or tried to act as a “balancer”. This is the same reason that many people regard Bill Gates and Jack Ma’s words as standard. From this perspective, the continued economic downturn is definitely not good for Singapore to act as a "balancer".

    On the other hand, Singapore faces the real risk of leadership decline. Singapore’s success over the past half century has largely been the success of its leadership. Lee Hsien Loong’s leadership is not inferior to that of contemporary Western politicians, but after all, he has not experienced too harsh political experience. Since 2004, Lee Hsien Loong has served as prime minister for more than 12 years. In recent years, he has expressed his views on multiple occasions after the 2020 election. However, so far, some key cabinet positions are still held by senior ministers of Lee Hsien Loong's peers. In the two previous leadership transitions in Singapore, Goh Chok Tong and Lee Hsien Loong have experienced long-term experience in key positions such as Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Finance, and Minister of Defense, and have sufficient political experience.

    This chaotic state has lasted for so long, which shows that there is no candidate in the cabinet at present, and the decision-makers are uncertain about weighing left and right, and are still hesitating. This has sounded a wake-up call to the leadership training mechanism in Singapore. Regardless of who the future leader is, his learning period is destined to be very short. Given that Lee Kuan Yew has passed away, Singapore is facing multiple challenges and cannot afford to make mistakes, the pressure can be imagined.