Depth report

　　

Singapore’s Minister of Trade and Industry Lin Xunqiang said on February 6 that after the United States withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the other 11 member states should still strive to complete the approval process and prepare for the United States to rejoin. Today, the Japanese government has also turned to the 11 countries excluding the United States to promote the agreement to enter into force. Ministerial consultations will be held in Vietnam in late May to start discussions on the TP framework that does not include the United States.

    Japan has determined that the Trump administration has not raised objections to the advancement of the TPP on the premise of excluding the United States. At the Japan-US summit in February, after the United States announced its withdrawal from the TPP, the two leaders agreed to explore the best way to promote trade and growth in the Asia-Pacific region. There is a sentence in the joint statement issued after the talks that “Japan will continue to promote economic development at the regional level on the basis of existing agreements.” A person from the Japanese government stated that this is "Japan has confirmed to the United States a problem including the promotion of TPP11."

 　 There are many expectations that Japan will lead TPP11. A relevant person in Singapore’s diplomacy stated that “after the U.S. withdraws, Japan, which has the largest economy within the TPP, will not make progress without taking any action.” Among some U.S. congressmen and experts, there are voices that hope that Japan will replace the United States and promote trade liberalization in Asia. There are also concerns that as the United States withdraws from the TPP, which is the backbone of its return to Asia policy, China's dominant position in Asia will be strengthened.

 　 For a TPP without the United States to take effect, 11 countries need to agree on an amendment agreement that excludes the United States. Although countries such as Japan and Australia have a positive attitude, the difficulty is to convince Vietnam and Malaysia. For the two countries that look forward to the huge export market of the United States and make concessions in the negotiations, the TPP without the United States is very attractive. If Vietnam and other countries ask for the withdrawal of concessions made due to US pressure, the TPP11 negotiations are equivalent to starting from the beginning on the core content, and the situation will be difficult to deal with. At this time, superb negotiation skills are required, both to maintain the content of the TPP agreement, and to ensure that the United States is excluded.

Expect economic results

　 Regarding the multilateral "high-quality liberalization" concept proposed by the TPP, the Trump administration, who is optimistic about short-term benefits, is not too concerned. Japan’s strategy is to continue to negotiate with the United States through economic dialogues, and at the same time make the TPP11 take effect, so that the United States will return to the multilateral trade framework in the future. Regarding TPP11, there are still issues that need to be resolved in Japan, such as how to build a framework for importing white rice and dairy products to 11 countries including the United States. In addition, in bilateral negotiations between Japan and the United States, the United States requires Japan to open up its market more than the TPP's Japan-US agreement, which embarrassed Japan.

 　 Even so, it still makes sense for Japan to promote TPP. According to Professor Kenichi Kawasaki of the Graduate School of Policy Research, Japan, TPP12, including the United States, can push Japan's real GDP (GDP) up by 1.37%, and TPP11 can push up by 1.11%, which is less than TPP12. But even without the United States, its economic effects cannot be ignored.

 　 As the United Kingdom left the European Union and the Trump administration came to power, global multilateralism was shaken, and world trade began to lean towards bilateralism. Among them, the TPP, which guards the liberalization of multilateral trade, also has the meaning of restraining anti-globalism.