- 2018-10-19
Global economic growth is accelerating
Experts predict that in 2017, the global economic growth rate will gradually rise, at least stabilizing at the current situation. In the past six years, the harsh economic environment has seriously affected the development of the global economy, but in 2017, a greater degree of economic recovery and even prosperity will change this situation.
The 2008 financial crisis caused the global economy to paralyze to varying degrees. The crisis spread from the United States in the West to China in the East. Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said that the global economic recession that occurred in 2011 is a major obstacle to the slow global economic development.
With the intensification of geopolitical tensions, whether in the Middle East, where conflicts continue, or in other regions where terrorist attacks continue, including Europe, global economic growth this year is still facing huge challenges.
However, the latest forecasts by experts on economic growth and related values are still full of positive sentiment, especially based on the remarks made by the leaders of some countries on avoiding obvious obstacles: the uncertainty of global politics, trade protectionism and related harm , The deterioration of the unhealthy financial environment and the decline in economic growth in developing countries caused by the deterioration of the financial environment.
Lagarde predicts that in 2017, emerging markets and developing countries will contribute approximately 75% of global GDP growth. Last week, the Arab Monetary Fund (the Arab Monetary Fund) released a report showing that the oil exports of Arab oil exporting countries will rise by 2.3% this year, because the global demand for crude oil and the increase in crude oil prices promote the increase in exports.
The report also pointed out that in 2018, the economic growth rate of Arab countries will rise by 2.7%.
The report believes that the economic growth in 2018 will cover the member states of the Committee and other oil-exporting countries, and the economic growth rate of these countries will increase by 4.1%. This is mainly due to the improvement of the global economic environment and the country's support for export and investment activities.
According to the relevant forecasts of global inflation from 2017 to 2018, the report believes that the inflation factor will be affected by many local factors such as the implementation of value-added tax and the adoption of new proposals such as selective tax cuts.
The report predicts: This year, the inflation rate in Arab countries will reach 9.8%, and in 2018 it will reach about 9.6%.
At the same time, the World Trade Organization predicts that in 2017, global trade volume will rise by 2.4%, but it is still affected by many uncertain factors such as economic and political development, especially the uncertainty of US policy.
Roberto Azevêdo, Director-General of the World Trade Organization, remains cautiously optimistic about global economic growth, but he believes that global economic growth is still fragile. Recently, Lagarde, President of the International Monetary Fund, said: The momentum of world economic growth is increasing, and the cyclical recovery brings hopes of increased employment opportunities, increased income levels, and increased prosperity. However, downside risks still exist, including factors such as political uncertainty, the threat of trade protectionism, and the increasingly tense development trend of the global financial environment.
Experts predict that in the first quarter of 2017, as the world's second largest economy, China's economic growth will remain stable, given the recovery of its government spending and exports. They also believe that China's GDP in the first quarter of 2017 will remain at 6.8%.
Eliminate fear
This time, the IMF saw a brisk financial market and the "long-awaited cyclical manufacturing trade recovery."
The rebound in commodity prices has also helped to eliminate the fear of deflation or falling prices. Deflation and deflation have always been considered a danger, especially in the developed world. In some cases, deflation may exacerbate economic weakness.
The forecast for this year shows that this year’s global economic growth is better than last year’s. What is striking is that in the IMF's predictions for larger economies, no economy is predicted to see a decline in economic activity this year and next. Even Brazil and Russia are predicted to grow this year, albeit not much. At present, these two countries have been enduring the collateral effects of international and domestic political problems.
Eurozone growth "closes to its highest level in five years"
Inevitably, the IMF has identified potential risks that may pull down the agency's main expectations. In particular, the latest report pointed out that "the pressure of inward-looking policies in advanced economies" has risen. The report emphasized that the loss of so-called "medium-skilled" jobs in advanced economies is the result of scientific and technological progress since the early 1990s. How much job loss may be caused by global trade growth has always been the focus of debate.
In addition, the slow recovery after the recent economic crisis has had a great impact on lower-income groups, leading many people to become more hostile to globalization.
UK growth enhancement
The expectations for the UK’s economic growth this year are now only slightly lower than the IMF’s expectations a year ago. At that time, the IMF predicted that the British economy would grow by 2.2% this year. The revised forecast further shows that the British economic performance is not greatly affected by the Brexit referendum, which is lower than the expectations of the IMF and many independent economists. However, the IMF believes that the longer-term impact of the Brexit referendum on the UK is harmful.
The IMF raised its expectations for the UK’s economic growth, indicating that the country’s economic growth has strengthened. However, the IMF also pointed out the negative impact of Brexit on the UK, including "decreased consumer purchasing power after the devaluation of the pound" and "uncertainty effects of private investment."
The IMF also stated that due to the expected increase in trade and immigration barriers and the potential impact on the UK’s financial services, the UK’s longer-term economic growth prospects have been weakened.
It is Africa that has weak growth prospects. In sub-Saharan African countries, the rate of economic growth may only slightly exceed the rate of population growth. Although the prices of commodities, including oil, have rebounded recently, they are still at a relatively low level. The IMF pointed out that low commodity prices have hindered the economic growth of African oil-producing countries, such as Nigeria and Angola.