Depth report

　　

The rise of a country must be guided by the rise of cities. China has risen to the second largest economy in the world. At the same time, hundreds of cities in the country have undergone earth-shaking changes. In the final analysis, the prosperity of cities will ultimately rest on the basis of industry.

    Why is there such a big gap between Shenzhen and Zhuhai in the special zones that started at the same time? Why is Suzhou, with its strong economic power, inferior to Lanzhou, the capital of Gansu Province, which has an underdeveloped economy, in terms of financial vitality? Different industry choices lead to different final urban patterns. Looking at it on paper, almost all urban development plans are tall and tall, and it is necessary to develop high-tech industries, emerging industries, and revitalize the service industry.

    The reality is very skinny. There are many prerequisites for what industry a city is suitable for. Not all cities are suitable for tall buildings. Based on the lessons learned from dozens of cities, a city needs to consider five conditions when choosing an industry.

Triple positioning in the world, country and economic circle

    High-end industries are blooming everywhere. Almost all cities, when planning industries, can't wait to be led by high-tech industries. Regard low-end industries as backward production capacity. But in fact, the level of the leading industry needs to be considered from the division of labor and positioning in the region.

    China is at the middle and low end of the global industrial chain. Take the manufacturing industry as an example. The global manufacturing industry is divided into four phalanxes. The United States is the first phalanx, other developed countries such as Britain, France, Germany, Japan and South Korea are the second phalanx, and emerging countries such as China are the third phalanx. Pull the late-developing country as the fourth phalanx.

    In the field of high-tech industries, the most core technology is controlled in Europe and the United States. For example, the top technology of automobiles is in Japan, Germany and the United States. China has finally achieved a zero breakthrough in the technology of large aircraft, but the main technology is still in the hands of a few countries, and the core technology of electronic components is also in the hands of Europe, America and Japan. China has only made breakthroughs in a few areas.

    China's position in the global industrial chain is destined for most cities to focus on mass industries, or mid-range industries, and high-end industries can only land in some first-mover cities. If China loses the advantages of mass-manufacturing, it will be attacked on both sides. In the high-end field, it is blocked by Europe and the United States, and in the low-end field, it is eroded by countries such as India and Vietnam.

    At the same time, there is also an industrial gradient in China. With the completion of China’s vast inland industrial transfer, China will form a U-shaped curve industrial structure. The eastern coastal area will become the core area of R&D and high-end industries, as well as the sales center of final products, and the bottom of the U-shaped curve will be processed and manufactured. The end is concentrated in the Midwest.

    Taking the manufacturing industry as an example, there will be three major groups in China's manufacturing industry. One is the high-precision manufacturing industry represented by Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. The total amount is small, but the technology is at the top of the ranks. These cities also do not take manufacturing as the mainstream. The second is the mass manufacturing center represented by Wuxi, Suzhou in the Yangtze River Delta and Foshan and Dongguan in the Pearl River Delta. It has advanced technology and strong foundation, and is at a node in the manufacturing system. The third is the mainland hinterland cities that are currently undertaking the most concentrated industrial transfers.

    As far as the country is concerned, most cities are also destined to be dominated by mid-range industries. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, many cities in China have taken a long way to go and have taken detours, while those cities that are down-to-earth are generally accumulating and developing well. For example, Wuhan, Changsha, Hefei, Zhengzhou, Chongqing, and Chengdu in the central and south-central regions have honestly engaged in mass manufacturing in the past few years, especially Wuhan and Chengdu, which have all ranked among the top ten cities in domestic GDP.

    The third is to look at the division of labor in different cities within the same economic circle. There is an interesting phenomenon among the cities in the Pearl River Delta. The financial industry of Dongguan and other important economic towns is not developed. Where is the financial industry in Dongguan? It's very simple. It was done by Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hong Kong. In the industrial division of labor within the Pearl River Delta cities, Guangshen's tertiary industry is relatively strong, and it is a regional financial center.

    Globally, the triple positioning of countries and economic circles is a restriction for all cities. In particular, many cities like to engage in leapfrog development and are unwilling to keep their feet on the ground. They always want to speculate and engage in miracles.

Comply with the development stage and measure the time coordinate

    Life has annual rings, and cities have rhythms. Respect for the development stage is also vital to the city's industrial strategy.

    Many places believe that the low proportion of the tertiary industry means that cities are underdeveloped. In fact, which industry is the mainstay depends on the stage of urban development. The once-popular "service industry breakthrough" has led to strategic mistakes in some cities.

    At the national level, some people have begun to breed feelings of being ashamed of the world's factories. In the past ten years, China has experienced a tendency to hollow out its industries, and the real economy has suffered heavy losses. It was not until 2015 that it turned around and launched the China Manufacturing 2025 plan.

    The United States has survived many crises and is still standing. Although the United States is the world's largest service industry country, its manufacturing industry is equally developed, and it is even the largest agricultural country. A reasonable industrial structure provides the United States with strong anti-risk capabilities and adjustment capabilities.

    At its peak, the manufacturing industry in the United Kingdom accounted for about 45% of the world's industrialized countries. At its peak, the United States accounted for 53% of the Western world. China currently accounts for only 20% of the world, and it is large but not strong, far from reaching its peak.

    Judging from the stage of development, China is still in the mid-stage of industrialization, and the manufacturing industry is still an important factor. This also determines that most cities in China will be dominated by manufacturing.

    The positive case is that cities such as Wuhan have persisted in manufacturing in recent years, which has consolidated the industrial foundation and laid the foundation for long-term development in the future. More than a decade ago, Wuhan had implemented the strategy of "taking off the two links" and wanted to be dominated by the service industry, but it turned out to be a detour. Later, Wuhan re-adjusted its strategy and implemented the industrial doubling plan, which achieved great results. Wuhan is currently in the middle and late stages of industrialization. Last year, Wuhan's manufacturing industry accounted for about 40%, and the service industry was slightly higher than the national average. In the next ten years or more, its industry will continue. The proportion of Wuhan's service industry may not be as high as Beijing's nearly 80%, and perhaps 60% is very suitable. This is a development stage that cannot be jumped.

    First realize the rise of the manufacturing industry, then become the center of the service industry, and finally realize the full rise. Wuhan's industrial strategy is quite universal. Cities such as Changsha, Chengdu, Nanchang, and Hefei have actually followed a similar path. In recent years, the development speed of the South Central region has been the fastest in the country, and they have chosen to honestly engage in the real economy and have made great contributions.

    A typical example of failure caused by leapfrog development is Zhuhai. In the early stage of reform and opening up, other Pearl River Delta cities took the lead in developing industries by undertaking industrial transfers from Hong Kong and Europe and the United States. At this time, Zhuhai wanted to achieve high and low development, with tourism and high-tech industries as its leading industries.

    Zhuhai thus lost the best time to develop its industry. In the 1980s and 1990s, it was the golden age for cities in the Pearl River Delta to take off. The manufacturing industry in the Pearl River Delta developed rapidly and became a world-renowned “world factory”. The Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration, led by Guangzhou and Shenzhen, also completed its preliminary stage. Rise. The lagging manufacturing industry has frustrated Zhuhai's dream of extraordinary development. In the first round of development, Zhuhai has gradually fallen behind and the special economic zone has disappeared. The gap with Shenzhen is huge.

The dispute between stock and increment: keeping integrity and surprising

    In many places, traditional industries are regarded as daunting. Both listed high-tech industries as the focus of future development. Want to break the situation with emerging industries. However, if all places use emerging industries as a way to break through, the competition in emerging industries will soon change from the blue ocean to the red ocean. For example, the solar energy industry is rushing in from all over the world, and no one can be spared when the industry is turbulent.

    In addition, the rise of emerging industries takes time. During this period, how can local governments support the existing structure and wait for the emerging industries to bear fruit?

    In the tide of industrial transformation, Wuxi has chosen emerging industries and high-tech industries to break through in recent years. Wuxi Suntech's sharp edge was revealed, and once brought great glory to Wuxi. But later, the photovoltaic industry represented by Wuxi Suntech declined, but the traditional industry was in crisis. In the past five years, the proportion of Wuxi's industry has dropped by about 5 percentage points, from 54.2% in 2011 to 49.3% in 2015. In 2015, the added value of industries above designated size was more than 30 billion less than in 2011. The growth rate of the added value of the industrial enterprises above designated size has been at the bottom of the province for 6 consecutive years. Ignoring traditional industries has caused a heavy blow to the real economy.

    Wuxi is also surrounded by two comprehensive cities, Shanghai and Nanjing. The development of the service industry should obviously not be the focus. At the same time, it is difficult for emerging industries to become the leading industry. Taking the solar energy industry as an example, 46 countries around the world regard it as the pillar of the future, and almost all provinces and cities in China also regard it as the key industry for future development. It is easy to homogenize. It is not surprising that Wuxi Suntech finally lost in the fierce competition.

    In the field of high-tech industries, the core technology is controlled by Europe and the United States. In China, there is also an industrial gradient. The most high-end industries still land in central cities, such as Beijing Zhongguancun, Shanghai Zhangjiang Science Park, Shenzhen High-tech Industrial Park, and so on. Wuxi is hard to keep up. Wuxi over-relied on emerging and high-end industries, and even took advantage of the Taihu blue algae incident to drive away many traditional manufacturing companies. They focused on getting bigger and bigger. In the end, the photovoltaic industry was not preserved, the traditional industry was sluggish, and both ends fell through. It ignores the huge stock, which has a negative impact on the urban economy. Development is very deadly.

    Compared with emerging industries, China has a huge stock of traditional industries. Compared with the service industry, China's manufacturing stock is huge. For most cities, the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry is more important than the transformation from manufacturing to the service industry; the renewal of traditional industries is more important than the transformation of traditional industries to emerging industries.

    It is worthy of recognition is Foshan, Guangdong. Foshan's development model can be described as a three-body one: a solid and solid real economy, a strong and prosperous local economy, and a vibrant private economy. Endogenous development. Foshan has always adhered to the manufacturing industry, and the proportion of the secondary industry has remained at around 60%. Made in Foshan has become the most resounding business card in Foshan City. It has gradually established several pillar industries such as home appliances and ceramics. After decades of work, it has gradually become the most famous manufacturing town in the country. In recent years, the overall strength has risen strongly, with per capita GDP catching up to Shanghai.

    The inspiration from Foshan is that by sticking to manufacturing and sticking to an industrial system dominated by traditional industries, there can be a future. Keeping integrity is surprising. For most cities, it is an iron law that must be followed. There is no miracle, only accumulation.

Industrial layout of special cities

    There are many types of cities in China, and the strategic system is complex and diverse. Among them, there are three types of cities, which are prone to strategic misunderstandings. They are famous tourist cities, resource-based cities, and heavy industrial cities.

    What is different from the common people’s impression is that the tourism cities with more developed economy have a higher proportion of cultural tourism income than those due to poverty. Take Zhoushan and Tongren as examples. In 2016, Zhoushan's tourism revenue was 66.162 billion yuan, GDP was 122.851 billion yuan, Tongren's tourism revenue was 34.730 billion yuan, and its GDP was 85.697 billion yuan. Zhoushan's economic aggregate is large, and the ratio of tourism revenue to GDP is still higher than that of Tongren. The per capita GDP of Zhoushan reached 106364 yuan, while that of Tongren was 27366 yuan, a huge difference.

    The proportion of Tongren's secondary industry is only 28.4%. It can be seen that a moderate industrialization course is vital to Tongren's future. The Fanjing Mountain in Tongren is well-known in China, but there is no expressway yet. Zhoushan is different. The citizens are rich, and local tourism can lay the foundation. At the same time, the Yangtze River Delta where it is located is a land of prosperity, and the cultural and tourism industry is more powerful than cities that rely solely on tourism.

    In recent years, Guizhou has been engaged in large-scale industrialization and the economy has been advancing by leaps and bounds, and the proportion of tourism has increased. In 2016, Guizhou's total tourism revenue reached 502.7 billion yuan, and its added value accounted for about 10% of GDP, making it a pillar industry in Guizhou.

    Poor and beautiful, no one comes, and insufficient consumption. Many people have ignored the local demand factors Porter mentioned in the theory of national competitive strategy. The enlightenment is that poor and beautiful places can easily become castles in the sky by virtue of their beautiful careers. Moderate industrial supplementary lessons can be achieved as long as they are within the scope of ecological pressure.

    There are many misunderstandings in the transformation of resource-based cities. The most typical thing is that they all want to do cultural industries. In fact, there are two hidden prerequisites for the transformation of traditional resource cities in developed countries such as Ruhr. First, these cities were already mainstream cities in developed countries before the transformation, with strong capital, and a good foundation for derivative industries and cultural industries. Europe and the United States are in a strong position and have a foundation and a market for cultural tourism. The second is that their transformation lasted for decades before finally succeeding.

    The transformation of many resource-based cities in China is actually inappropriate to learn from Ruhr. Most of the domestic resource-based cities are poor cities. The country is rich and the people are poor and the gap between the rich and the poor is serious, and the general consumer market is insufficient. Beijing can turn Shougang's old factory and 798 factory into a cultural industry base, but many resource cities in poor places have been doing cultural and creative industries for many years and have no effect. The overall economic strength cannot keep up. This is the root cause of the failure of cultural industries in resource-based cities in Shanxi, Northeast, and Shaanxi.

Power coordinates

    China is an incomplete market economy country. The market and power alternately determine the allocation of resources.

    The arrangement of public resources in Chinese cities is based on political status. In this system, municipalities directly under the central government are in the first echelon, provincial capitals are in the second echelon, cities that are separately listed in the plan are in the third echelon, and other prefecture-level cities with standing committee members serving as secretaries are in the fourth echelon, and generally cities are in the fifth echelon. County-level cities are in the sixth echelon. The town is in the seventh echelon.

    In the field of culture and education, China's top universities, including Peking University and Tsinghua University, are all established in Beijing. In terms of medical resources, Beijing dominated the fourth among China's top ten hospitals in 2016. In the economic field, more than 80 of the more than 110 central enterprises have their headquarters in Beijing, surpassing all other cities combined. As for the central institutions, they are all concentrated in Beijing. The headquarters of the Fortune 500 in Beijing is already the world's first. It is the location of the Central Bank and the three associations, and it is the source of policy. In 2016, Beijing's domestic and foreign currency deposit balance was 13,840.89 billion yuan, the highest in the country. Beijing's absorption of funds far exceeds that of other cities.

    In such a city, the tertiary industry is naturally developed. In 2016, Beijing's tertiary industry accounted for more than 80%, the highest in the country. Its financial industry ranked first in added value, accounting for 17.1% of GDP; the cultural and creative industry also exceeded 10%. The status of Beijing in the country is just like the status of the provincial capital and capital in various provinces and autonomous regions. In almost all capital cities, the tertiary industry is relatively developed. The tertiary industry in many provincial capitals in backward areas can also be better than ordinary cities in developed areas. Without it, the resources of the province are concentrated in its hands.

    For example, the economically developed Suzhou has a ratio of domestic and foreign currency deposits to GDP but only 1.3. However, the economically underdeveloped Gansu provincial capital Lanzhou, its deposit balance to GDP ratio can reach 2.8, which is stronger than the economically developed Suzhou. The same is true within a province. The economy of Suzhou is stronger than that of Nanjing, but its ability to attract gold is not as good as that of Nanjing. The ratio of domestic and foreign currency deposits to GDP in Nanjing reached 2.7. The ability to attract capital is stronger than that of Suzhou.

    Not only the distribution of public resources, but also the level of the city’s power must be considered. Many of the monopolies that have not completely gone out of the approval system

Industries and semi-open industries all rely on the urban power system. For example, prefecture-level cities can act as city banks, but even more developed county-level cities do not have the authority. This is not a market choice but a distribution of power.

     It is also a reality that many cities need to respect to fully consider their own position in the power system and rationally lay out their industries.