Depth report

　　

When analyzing the economic situation of Russia in the first half of the year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Economic Report used this sentence: confirm that the Russian economy is recovering. At the same time, the Russian Ministry of Economic Development predicts that the Russian economy will grow by 2% this year, and the World Bank believes it will grow by 1.5%. From the perspective of major economic indicators, the Russian economy continues to stabilize and further enters the low-speed growth channel, which has become a consensus among many parties. However, what needs more attention than economic data are the challenges of Russia's economic transformation in the past two years and the impact on future Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation.

The economic structural transformation is beginning to show results

 　 According to data from the Russian Federal Statistical Office, Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2016 was 86.044 trillion rubles (approximately US$1.419 trillion), a decrease of 0.2% year-on-year, but it was significantly better than the 2.8% decline in 2015. Since July last year, Russia's GDP has continuously achieved year-on-year growth, reaching 1.6% in the first half of this year.

 　 High inflation is a chronic disease in Russia's economic development, and it is also a key factor hindering investment development. However, it has dropped from 12.9% in 2015 and 5.4% in 2016, and has now fallen to 4.1%. In terms of people's livelihood, the employment and labor force participation rate is approaching the highest level in history, and the unemployment rate is approaching the lowest level in history. Some other data from the Russian Federal Bureau of Statistics show that the actual disposable income of Russian residents stopped falling in the first half of this year.

 　 The Russian economic crisis that began in 2014, from the perspective of external factors, is mainly the Western economic sanctions that the United States has publicly dominated, which cut off Russia’s financing channels in the international market. The sharp drop in oil prices in the international market to around US$30 per barrel has also plunged Russia, which mainly relies on crude oil and natural gas exports, into an economic quagmire.

 　 According to calculations by the former Russian Finance Minister Kudrin, the correlation coefficient between Russia's GDP growth rate and international oil prices from 1999 to 2008 was 0.86, and the coefficient reached 0.98 from 2009 to 2014. The trend of commodity prices, especially oil prices, has become the “fate door” of Russia’s economic prospects.

 　 Russian President Vladimir Putin once stated that due to the long-term sanctions imposed by the United States on Russia, Russia has lost US$50 billion to US$52 billion, leading to a decline in the prices of traditional Russian products, including oil, natural gas, steel, and chemicals. However, Putin also emphasized that Western sanctions have strengthened Russia's determination to carry out economic structural transformation.

 In response to this economic crisis, reducing the impact of external sanctions, and stabilizing the macro economy, Russia has decisively implemented "import substitution" and dedicated funds to support the advancement of import substitution projects. The policy has supported a number of non-raw material companies and increased efforts to develop the Far East. And Siberia, implement the "Look East" strategy. At the same time, it also proposed a series of specific measures that are conducive to the establishment and development of enterprises, such as not raising the tax standards of enterprises within four years, not adding non-tax revenue channels, and granting a two-year tax exemption period for newly established small and medium-sized enterprises, and so on.

 　 These measures have achieved initial results. Take agricultural products as an example. Two years ago, Russia imposed severe restrictions on the import of fruits and vegetables, but due to its inability to be self-sufficient, the inflation rate at that time was above double digits. In the past two years, the government has unswervingly and vigorously developed its own fruits, vegetables, meat and other agricultural products. The agricultural output value and the growth of agricultural products have become a highlight in the economic transformation.

 Many scholars believe that if the world oil price drops to less than 30 U.S. dollars per barrel, it will “not become an insurmountable obstacle for Russia”. After these two years of “anti-crisis”, Russia’s economic resistance today is no longer the first few years. Years can be compared.

Achieving rapid growth is the primary problem

 　 Getting out of economic recession does not mean getting out of economic dilemma. On June 15th, when the 2017 "Putin Hotline" program was broadcast, the first question raised by the public was about the Russian economic crisis. Putin said that the Russian economy has come out of recession and entered a period of growth. However, “the number of people living below the poverty line in Russia is still increasing, which is disturbing.” According to Andrei Belousov, the Russian President’s economic adviser, the number of people living in poverty has increased by nearly 500 since Russia’s economic crisis. Million, the total number exceeded 19 million. Among them, Russians with incomes below the minimum standard of living have reached about 13% of the total population-and before the economic crisis, this proportion was 10%.

 　 How to give the people a more "sense of gain" and to effectively improve the living standards of ordinary people while getting out of the economic crisis is of vital importance to the Russian government.

 　 After Putin became president again in May 2012, he successively proposed more than 200 tasks, covering economic growth, population increase, education and health modernization, improvement of quality of life, and fulfillment of social obligations, which are required to be achieved by 2020. According to calculations by Russian scholars, to achieve these goals, the average annual GDP growth rate should not be less than 5% to 6%.

 　 The analysis believes that the sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union will not be lifted in the short term, Russian companies still have obstacles to financing in the international market, and structural economic problems will be difficult to eliminate in the short term. After being out of the economic crisis, Russia's economic growth is still weak. Even if it is optimistically predicted, this year's GDP growth rate will be lower than the average growth rate of the world economy. How to enter the track of rapid growth is the most important problem currently facing Russia.

China-Russia economic and trade cooperation advances in depth

 　 Although the economic and trade relations between China and Russia are developing rapidly, the fundamental way to improve the trade structure between the two countries is still in the transformation of the Russian economic structure. According to statistics released by the General Administration of Customs of China, from January to June 2017, the total value of imports and exports between China and Russia was 39.778 billion US dollars, an increase of 25.7% year-on-year. Among them, the total value of China's exports to Russia was 19.441 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%; the total value of China's imports from Russia was 20.336 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 29.3%.

 　 It should be said that in the process of Russia's exit from the economic recession, its strategy of "looking eastward" is precisely because of its comprehensive strategic partnership with China, as well as the strong economic strength and market potential of this neighboring country. The in-depth advancement of Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation, especially in-depth cooperation in energy and agriculture, has played a significant role in Russia's economic recovery.

 Following the signing of a large gas contract with China in May 2014 with a total value of US$400 billion and a cumulative term of 30 years, in September 2015, Russia held the first Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok. Foreign companies in China have signed about 20 billion U.S. dollars in cooperation projects. Subsequently, Russia established "advanced development zones" in the Far East and Siberia to provide foreign investors with preferential policies and speed up the docking and cooperation with Northeast China. In the process of the Russian economy coming out of recession and moving towards recovery, the economic and trade cooperation between China and Russia, which is highly complementary in economy, has also ushered in a new situation.