Depth report

　　

The United States "posed a threat to world peace" has been the main rhetoric of Russian and Iranian propaganda agencies for many years. For those who believe in the Western Alliance, it is painful to admit that this view has some truth now. Under the leadership of Donald Trump, the United States looks very dangerous.

    Trump played a fringe policy on North Korea on the nuclear issue, vaguely threatened to take military action against Venezuela, and had an ambiguous attitude towards white supremacists in the country. His leadership style is completely contrary to the stable, predictable, and peaceful style that American allies hope.

    It is well known that Trump quickly threatened that North Korea might face the "fire and anger" of the United States, which had been "loaded", and this was particularly irresponsible. Even if this threat is a bluff, it puts the credibility of the United States to the test, and it can also intensify the Kim Jong Un regime, which is threatening to launch missiles near Guam within U.S. territory. What is even more worrying is that the Trump administration publicly talks about the idea of a preemptive strike against North Korea on the grounds that Kim Jong-un, who possesses nuclear weapons, cannot be deterred. But if the United States can rely on deterrence to contain the nuclear threats of Stalin's Russia and Mao Zedong's China, then of course it can also contain Kim Jong-un's North Korea. The previous presidents of the United States all rejected the idea of preemptive strikes against nuclear-weapon states for obvious reasons.

    Trump's increasing contribution to the international crisis is inseparable from the domestic problems that plague his government. Former FBI Director Robert Mueller's investigation of Russia's interference in the US election increasingly involves Trump's inner circle. Congress is in a stalemate, and the White House layoffs and intrigues. Now, there is political violence on the streets of the United States. White supremacists and neo-Nazis attack and even kill the protesters in Charlottesville, and Trump made vague statements from the golf course.

    The danger is that these multiple crises will converge, enticing the embattled president to try to use international conflicts to get rid of domestic difficulties. Just this week, the controversial White House aide Sebastian Gorka used the North Korean crisis to force Trump’s domestic critics to make concessions. He told Fox News: “ During the Cuban Missile Crisis, we supported JFK. The current situation is similar to the Cuban Missile Crisis. We need to unite."

    Gorka's view that the threat of war might unite Americans around Trump should be a wake-up call for all those with a historical perspective. Governments facing domestic crises are often more willing to take risks abroad. For example, the German government that plunged Europe into World War I faced severe threats from domestic political opponents. But on the day of the war, the elated Kaiser said to the crowd: "I no longer recognize any party or faction; now we are all German brothers." Or as Gorka said: "Now we have to act as one It's time for the country to unite."

    Leaders facing severe domestic political pressure are also more likely to act irrationally. During the Watergate crisis, Richard Nixon's cabinet members asked the military to verify with them before obeying the president's order to launch a nuclear strike. Regrettably, it is unclear whether U.S. officials-now or at the time-have the power to revoke the nuclear strike order issued by the president.

    Outside observers can only hope that "adults" in the Trump administration will control him in some way. But at least in public, resistance to Trump’s threat of war is clearly weak, both in Congress and within the government.

    Trump's national security adviser Herbert Raymond McMaster (HR McMaster) defended Trump's belligerent stance on national television. At the same time, General McMaster himself was criticized by white nationalists among the president’s supporters, who accused him of laying off some of their allies in the National Security Council. Last week, as the North Korean crisis intensified, the hashtag "McMaster Leaving" became popular on Twitter, and nationalists sought to purge new enemies from the White House. This is diametrically opposed to the mainstream sentiment that the White House should have as a potential nuclear confrontation in the Pacific approaches.

    Those who hope that the "dark forces" in the United States will contain Trump and even force him to resign may be wishful thinking. Forcing him to resign is still extremely difficult, and it may lead to more radical internal and foreign affairs in the United States.

    The last disturbing thought is that Trump’s becoming the President of the United States is more and more a symptom of a broader crisis in American society. Even if Trump steps down, this crisis will not disappear. The decline in the living standards of many ordinary Americans and the demographic changes that jeopardized the mainstream status of white Americans have spawned a large number of angry voters who voted for Trump. With this social and economic background, coupled with concerns about the decline in international status and a political culture that respects guns and arms, you can expect that this country’s response to international crises is increasingly likely to be "loaded."

The United States and China are engaged in an "economic war"

    The White House strategist Steve Bannon warned that the United States and China are engaged in an "economic war" and that there will be only one winner in the end. He issued a severe attack on this geopolitical opponent in Washington.

    The outspoken presidential adviser said: "The economic war with China is everything. We must focus on this frantically. I think if we continue to lose, we will be only five years away from reaching an inflection point where we can never recover. , At most 10 years.” Bannon claimed that in this winner-takes-all competition between the world’s two largest economies, North Korea is nothing more than a “sideshow” and the United States should not soften on trade issues in exchange for China. Help put pressure on Pyongyang.