- 2018-11-01
The decline of "Airbus"
When the dinner plate was taken away, the lights in the cabin were turned off, and some of the passengers were sleeping or staring at the screen. I sometimes think that human creativity is really great.
We are in a long tube, flying at an altitude of 35,000 feet, flying over the vast land and ocean. Although there are several excellent pilots in the cockpit, the aircraft flies mainly under computer control.
Last year, global air passenger traffic reached 3.8 billion passengers, more than half of the world’s population, and most of these journeys are safe. In 2016, a total of 10 fatal aviation accidents occurred, killing 268 people.
This is a shocking achievement-this feeling was strong before I got on the Airbus A380. This double-cabin "Big Mac" carries more than 500 passengers, but its engine is extremely quiet. In the early stages of the launch of the aircraft, there were reports that pilots found it difficult to take a nap while resting because they could hear babies crying and the sound of toilet flushing.
However, just 10 years after Singapore Airlines (Singapore Airlines) performed the first commercial flight of the A380, Airbus announced that it would drastically cut production, making many people believe that the double-decker jet has a dead end.
Last year Airbus said that they would reduce the annual production of A380 from 27 in 2015 to 12 in 2018. Not long ago, Airbus announced that by 2019, the production of A380 will be reduced to 8 per year.
Although Airbus has signed orders for 317 A380s so far, and 213 of them have been delivered, the company has not received new orders for more than two years, and it has no hope of breaking the order shortage before the end of this year.
Where is the problem? Since the 1990s, Airbus has plausibly argued that it hopes to replace Boeing's "old" 400-seat 747 with a new super-large jetliner. As newly wealthy travelers from emerging economies are eager to learn about the world, the number of air travelers is also increasing.
The construction of the airport is costly, and the expansion of the airport often causes controversy. The aviation industry is facing the pressure to reduce emissions and rationally use fewer, larger, and more energy-efficient modern aircraft to carry passengers. Airbus once believed that the A380 could meet this demand.
I remembered that when the A380 had not yet come out, one day before the opening of the British school one year, I was at the airport in Johannesburg looking at the flight departure schedule. Five full Boeing 747s flew to London that night-two flights by British Airways, two flights by South African Airways, and one flight by Virgin Atlantic. It seems that this route can be operated by a large aircraft.
Airbus has said that in many popular routes and large-scale hub airports, such as London Heathrow, Hong Kong and Dubai, the A380 will assume vital passenger transport tasks. Airbus has predicted that by 2030, there will be 1,300 A380s into commercial flights.
Then why is there only a small part of the A380 in active service? There are several reasons. Many passengers tend to choose to take direct flights operated by low-cost airlines at smaller airports instead of going to a large airport for transit.
New, smaller aircraft can now fly longer ranges, reducing the market demand for super-large aircraft. Moreover, the economic efficiency of the aviation industry is not good now-the industry has been in this state for a large part of the history of the development of the industry.
Emirates is the star airline in recent years and the largest buyer of the A380. Last year, it was hit hard by the New Deal for Air Travel in the United States, the terrorist attacks in Europe and the downturn in the Middle East oil and gas industry, which reduced its profits by 82 %.
A380 is by no means useless
Compared with the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350, the A380 is by no means useless. It can still occupy a place in the crowded international airports, such as London, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Paris and Beijing, but the reality is that the passenger throughput can reach There are only a handful of cities of this level, and it is very difficult for airlines to achieve high attendance every day. Of course, if an airline has both Emirates' geographical advantages, international route network density, financial strength and ambitions, then a large purchase of A380 may be a desirable option.
"For those airlines that focus on growth and market share, such as Emirates, you can use A380, but most airlines are more concerned about profits, and they don't want to fill up this large aircraft by reducing fares." Richard said.
"If airlines can continue to ensure that the passenger capacity of this large aircraft remains above 80%, then the A380 will become their cash cow, but the problem is that when the off-season comes, the number of passengers will decrease, and the capital cost and maintenance cost of the aircraft, Fuel costs and so on will not be reduced accordingly." Dr. Li Yanhong explained further.
According to the latest "Current Market Outlook" released by Airbus, in the next 20 years, the average annual growth rate of global air passenger traffic will be 4.5%, and more than 33,000 aircraft above the 100-seat class will need to be added, of which single-aisle aircraft account for 70%. Wide-body passenger and cargo aircraft such as Airbus A380 and Boeing 777 require approximately 9,500.
When the first A380 flight landed in Sydney, Australia in 2007, some people called it the "beginning of tomorrow", but after ten years of development, for the A380, it is now more like the "beginning of the end".
Airbus CEO Thomas Enders recently insisted that the prospects for the A380 still exist and that Airbus will use this production cut to increase the A380's attractiveness to customers. Maybe one day A380 will be hot again and orders will continue. But it is more likely that Airbus's "Big Sky" will become a limited edition just like Concorde. Despite the remarkable achievements, the aircraft industry still has no dreams to come true.