Depth report

　　

UBS analysts pointed out that since 2008, the Bank of China has lowered interest rates in Asian countries, but the private debt repayment rate has been steadily rising. The growth rate of corporate debt repayment is faster than the growth of corporate income. Analysts have named Asia as having debt problems and increasingly The more serious the third wave of financial crisis, the tipping point is in Asia.

Private enterprise debt "super fast" growth

    Since the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate to a level close to zero in 2008, the debt of private enterprises in emerging countries in Asia has experienced "super-high-speed" growth, but the growth rate of the nominal gross domestic product (GDP) has not. Always out of reach.

    The debt repayment rate is the ratio of debt repayment expenditure to the income of the enterprise. UBS analysts Wu Dekai and McCree pointed out that the debt growth rate of South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, China and India has exceeded the growth rate of the nominal GDP. It is obvious that the debts of Asian companies are already very heavy, but they are unable to make ends meet.

    This situation has caused Asian countries to retreat. On the one hand, they are considering lowering interest rates to boost the economy. On the other hand, they are worried about the substantial growth of debt and are considering tightening monetary policies.

    Slower economic growth in Asia and high debt levels may impact global economic growth, bulk commodities, and economic and trade exchanges. UBS believes that this is the third stage of the 2008 financial tsunami. The reason why analysts put forward this view is mainly related to the behavior of investors.

    After the banking industry collapsed in 2009, Western countries lowered their interest rates to a level close to zero. Due to the boom in emerging markets such as China and the high return on bond issuance, international funds were transferred to Asia. Now that the Asian economy is cooling down, the U.S. Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again, triggering the withdrawal of funds from emerging markets.

    UBS stated that Singapore and Hong Kong may be the most endangered because these two regions are most closely linked to US interest rates. It is estimated that the debt service ratios and benchmark interest rates of these two regions will be affected at the same time after the United States initiates interest rate hikes. Pull up together.

Southeast Asia's GDP growth rate explores new tsunami lows

    Political turmoil has hit investor confidence, weak Chinese demand, and household debt restrained consumer spending. Southeast Asian countries, once a shining star in emerging markets, are now facing the predicament of slowing economic growth. Credit Suisse estimates that Southeast Asia's economic growth will drop to 4.1% in 2015, rewriting the lowest level since the outbreak of the financial tsunami.

    Credit Suisse estimates that Southeast Asia’s economy will grow by 4.1% in 2015, not as good as 4.3% a year ago, and write down the lowest level since the financial crisis broke out six years ago. Southeast Asia’s economy has grown by an average of 5.3% over the past quarter of a century. One of the factors dragging down Southeast Asia’s economy is China’s weak demand. China is a major buyer of Southeast Asian goods, but official data point out that China’s imports have fallen every month since October 2014.

    Although the United States and the European Union are also major buyers of raw materials in Southeast Asia, the economic recovery in Europe and the United States is insufficient to fill the demand gap left by China.

    The political turmoil is also the cause of economic growth and investment in Southeast Asia. Taking Thailand as an example, economists generally do not believe that the military government has the ability to govern the economy, and there are no signs that the military government intends to return power to the civilian government.