Depth report

　　

The meeting mechanism of the heads of government of China, Japan and South Korea was finally restored after three years of suspension. This is beneficial to the improvement of the political and economic relations of the three countries, as well as to the peace, stability and development of Northeast Asia. But this does not mean that the relationship between the three countries will flourish from now on. The main reason is the structural contradiction between China and Japan. It is very likely that, for a considerable period of time in the future, Sino-Japanese relations will swing between "economically warm and politically friendly" and "economically warm and politically friendly", and it will be difficult to reach the level of "economically warm and politically friendly", let alone "economically warm and politically friendly. The realm of "hot politics". "Getting together with each other" will become the new normal in the relations between the two countries.

    The new Chinese government has put forward the "Belt and Road" initiative. It is generally believed that this initiative has become the top-level design of foreign relations and will shape China's grand foreign strategy for the next eight years or so. This shows that China’s geopolitical positioning is no longer an “East Asian country”, but a “central Asia country” and a “large country at the eastern end of the Eurasian continent”.

    The status of neighboring diplomacy in China's diplomacy has risen significantly, but there are many neighboring countries, and China needs to tap subregions and countries with significant room for improvement. The importance of Russia in China's neighboring diplomacy is shown in the following: Russia is China's only "comprehensive strategic cooperative partner", and the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor, one of the six major economic corridors of the Silk Road Economic Belt, passes through Russia. Central Asian countries are the key direction of the Silk Road Economic Belt, and more actively respond to the “Belt and Road” initiative, so their importance in China's neighboring diplomacy has increased significantly.

    The same is true for South Asian countries, especially the all-weather strategic partner Pakistan, and the de facto all-weather partner Bangladesh. Although India is not very enthusiastic about the “Belt and Road” initiative, its development prospects and potential for cooperation with China have elevated India’s status in China’s neighboring diplomacy. South Asian countries such as Sri Lanka and Nepal, as well as West Asian countries such as Iran and Turkey, have also won with the potential for cooperation with China. ASEAN countries are the first hub area for the construction of the Maritime Silk Road in the 21st century, and the Indo-China Peninsula is a branch of the Silk Road Economic Belt, so its importance in China's neighboring diplomacy is undiminished.

    As far as Northeast Asia is concerned, there is considerable room for improvement in China’s cooperation with Mongolia and North Korea. South Korea has become China’s focus in the Northeast Asia sub-region because of its political and economic relations with China and its positive attitude towards the “One Belt, One Road” initiative. Cooperative partner. In contrast, Japan lacks a comparative advantage, and its current importance in China's neighboring diplomacy is probably behind Russia, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, ASEAN, and South Korea. This trend is difficult to change in the foreseeable future. Looking back at the 1980s and 1990s, Japan ranked behind the United States in China's major-country diplomacy, and ranked first in its neighboring diplomacy. The reason for this change mainly stems from Japan's choice.

    Japan’s pursuit of "national normalization" began when Nakasone Yasuhiro was prime minister, and it has now become the mainstream consensus in Japanese politics. In all fairness, Japan has the right to do so. Germany has achieved this goal long ago and has led the multinational force in Afghanistan (the Netherlands became another leading country at the request of Germany, and it was Germany that actually played a leading role). But the key point is that Japan is pursuing this goal in a way that is unacceptable to neighboring countries without resolving the issue of war responsibility.

    Shinzo Abe took this approach to the extreme: vigorously strengthen the U.S.-Japan alliance to obtain support from the United States; strengthen relations with ASEAN, India, and Oceania countries to maintain Japan’s influence in the Asia-Pacific region; retreat on historical issues ( Questioning the relevant statements of the predecessor), stimulating China and South Korea, the main victims of World War II in Asia, in words and deeds (such as visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, claiming that there is no absolute definition of aggression, and calling comfort women "victims of human trafficking"); follow mainstream Japanese public opinion Unacceptable ways to push for policies and bills that shake the constitution of peace; show prevention and confrontation against China on security issues (such as preparing to conduct joint air patrols with the United States in the South China Sea, and pushing the foreign ministers of the Group of Seven countries to speak out on the South China Sea issue); passive treatment The “Belt and Road” even introduced countermeasures (such as the launch of the US$110 billion Asian Infrastructure Construction Funding Program); unwilling to increase the economy with China (such as the establishment of a Sino-Japanese free trade zone), and promote Japanese investment from China to Southeast Asia, etc. Wait.

    As a result of these practices, Japan’s political relations with South Korea and China have continued to be cold. Economic relations are the ballast stone of China-Japan relations, but since Abe took office, Japan's trade with China has grown slowly. In the first half of 2015, China-Japan trade volume has been lower than China-South Korea trade volume. Therefore, the importance of Japan in China's political, economic and diplomatic relations does not rise but falls.

    Due to the contradictions between the "One Belt One Road" strategy and Japan's national normalization strategy, the foundation of the Sino-Japanese strategic reciprocity originally proposed based on the goal of building the East Asian Community no longer exists. In the absence of a common strategic goal and therefore a lack of necessary strategic mutual trust, the overall relationship between the two countries is obviously unlikely to become warm, and it is difficult for China and Japan to have major strategic cooperation. The establishment of the China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Zone during the Abe period The possibility of completion is less than 50%. However, as the two major economies in the era of globalization, it is neither reasonable nor necessary to significantly weaken each other's economic and trade relations, and it is not in the interests of both parties. Therefore, maintaining a lukewarm economic relationship has become a bilateral choice. Fluctuations in political relations sometimes also affect economic relations. When political relations affect economic relations, the two parties are also willing to take some measures to "appropriately warm up", so there was a "four-point consensus" at the end of November 2014, and The China-Japan-Korea summit on November 1, 2015. On the whole, Sino-Japanese relations will oscillate between "economy, politics, and coldness" and "economy, politics and moderation." This relationship may have to be maintained after the Abe regime.

    So, what will China and Japan do in the future? In addition to maintaining necessary economic and trade relations and appropriate political relations, the two sides can also seek cooperation in certain specific functional areas. Strategic reciprocity is gone, and tactical reciprocity still needs to be maintained or even deepened. China's commodity market and tourists are still what Japan needs, and some technologies are also needed by Japan, such as drone technology, high-speed rail technology, and IT technology.

    Japan still has comparative advantages in some aspects for cooperation between the two parties: in the cultural field, both officials and citizens promote personnel exchanges, such as tourism, study abroad, art exhibitions, etc.; technical cooperation, such as energy saving and emission reduction technology, automobile engine technology; social management Japan has mature experience, while China needs to implement refined municipal management after large-scale urban construction, such as the management of urban bus and subway operations, and the recycling and utilization of garbage.

    In addition, you can also try to cooperate in projects in third countries, such as coordinating with each other in the construction of new railway projects in the Indochina Peninsula, to avoid vicious competition. Japan has accumulated considerable experience in improving operation and management of existing railway lines in the Indochina Peninsula. As major oil and gas consumers, China and Japan can work hand in hand with South Korea and India to establish an organization of energy consumer countries in Asia to help each other and achieve win-win cooperation in eliminating oil premiums in Asia.