- 2019-01-24
Five-Year Assessment of "One Belt One Road"
China’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative was five years old by September 2018. The "Belt and Road" is a project of the century, and five years can only be regarded as a start. However, the five-year period is not too short. It is necessary to evaluate and improve the construction of the “Belt and Road” as a short period.
The implementation situation in the past few years can be summarized as "huge results and outstanding problems". On the one hand, as the top-level design of China's foreign relations in the new era, the "Belt and Road" initiative has caused "ripples" that have spread to the world, and its influence on international politics, economy and culture is still being demonstrated. Historically, the “One Belt, One Road” initiative has shown a major change in the concept of Chinese governance of the world, and this initiative is likely to rank among the Republic’s diplomatic decisions that have the greatest impact on the world. On the other hand, the “Belt and Road” initiative is an unprecedented major attempt to reshape the world in a peaceful manner in human history. It is impossible to have a detailed design and then implement it. Not surprisingly, the key lies in analyzing the problem, solving it, and avoiding major mistakes. And listening to the world's wide-ranging discussions will greatly help China to objectively grasp the crux of the problem.
Let's listen to the voice of Philip Stephens, deputy editor and chief political commentator of the Financial Times.
1. In your personal opinion, what is the main reason why President Xi Jinping proposed the "One Belt One Road" initiative?
I think maybe only President Xi can give a clear answer to this question. What I don’t know or don’t quite understand is the extent to which the “Belt and Road Initiative” is just a collection of ideas to expand production and ensure the security of raw material supply, that is, to what extent it is based on strategic and geopolitical purposes.
China will say that some of our industries have overcapacity, we want to form alliances or partnerships with other countries, we need to ensure the security of the supply of raw materials, we hope to continue to showcase China's development results after the Beijing Olympics, and so on.
The Beijing Olympics is clearly a turning point. As for the fact that all these reasons combined, make President Xi Jinping said that we need a geopolitical framework, so this ambitious framework was designed, or is it a geopolitical framework at the beginning and then an economic component? This is not clear. In other words, I don't know whether it gradually develops a grand strategy from small to large, or is it a grand strategy from the beginning, and different elements constitute the driving force for its development?
About a year after the “Belt and Road” initiative was proposed, I attended a meeting in Shanghai and found that everyone was not quite sure what the true intention of the “Belt and Road” was.
(Xue: What year is it?)
I think it was four years ago. No one is sure whether the "Belt and Road" is a grand strategy or the accumulation of a different project, and then these projects are easily integrated into a large project. There is a marketing term in the West, that is, you have a lot of ideas, and then merge them into a big idea. So is this a combination of a series of different ideas, or is it just a vague idea at the beginning, and then it is put forward after absorbing some specific points? I now think that it is mainly a geopolitical concept, that is, the “Belt and Road” is an idea about Eurasia, an idea that tries to persuade Europe and other countries to look east rather than west.
2. What do you think are the advantages and disadvantages of the “Belt and Road” initiative?
The advantage of the "Belt and Road" is that everyone will benefit from it, especially in central Eurasia. If the Eurasian train is successfully completed, both European and Asian countries on the Eurasian continent will benefit from increased trade.
On the shortcomings, the outside world is concerned about the intention of the "One Belt, One Road" initiative. Is China's construction of the "Belt and Road" out of good intentions? For example, when China entered parts of the Balkans, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe to take some actions, such as helping Romania build infrastructure and buying the port of Piraeus in Greece. At this time people will think, why does it do this? Is it just because it wants to establish cooperation and partnership with Europe, or is it trying to divide Europe? Many people believe that "16+1" is a sign that China uses its economic power to divide the West.
Westerners pay more attention to China's true intentions, that is, why did China do this, and what is its purpose? To gain political or strategic advantage? China came to a certain country and told him that we will do a lot of things for you. When this country starts to rely on China, China will tell him you want to do this or that.
Therefore, my honest answer is: We (Europe) doubt China's intention to do so. Is this a power game played by China? For most Westerners, the main problem related to the “Belt and Road” is that we now have to accept that China is already a big country (the fact that), but we really can’t accept this (do not really want to accept that) . We want to do business with China, we want to establish economic relations with China, knowing that this is a mutually beneficial thing, but we have political and strategic doubts. Therefore, my conclusion is: Whether other countries believe in China and their worries about China's true intentions are the main issues facing the “Belt and Road” initiative.
(Xue: In your opinion, how should China eliminate this doubt?)
China needs to take concrete actions to eliminate these doubts. Europeans are now paying attention to what China is doing in Southeast Europe, because China seems to be trying to divide some of these countries and draw them from Europe into her arms. The emergence of "16+1" reflects this problem. China can only appease these people through concrete actions rather than vague remarks.
(Xue: Why does China propose the "One Belt One Road" initiative?)
A short answer is: China is trying to become the most powerful country on the Eurasian continent.
(Xue: Is this kind of thinking abnormal?)
This is neither normal nor normal. Judging from the long historical period of the rise and fall of great powers, this is normal. In terms of what has happened in the past 5 or 60 years, this is not normal, because after 1945 we have a fairly stable international system perspective. Westerners once dominated the world, and any challenge to this dominance will make you uncomfortable. Our value system is very different from China. We have Western-style democracy but China does not.
I made it clearer. Any great country will incur resentment. This is the reason for the anti-American sentiment. Our country has also had anti-American sentiments for a while. However, due to the cultural and social similarities between Britain and the United States, we are more likely to accept American hegemony. European democracy is not perfect, but it is roughly similar to American democracy. We watch the same TV shows and speak the same language as Americans. Accepting American hegemony is not easy, but compared to China's hegemony, it is easier (we accept it).
The social, political and cultural structure of China is different from that of the West. Some people would say that this is a kind of antagonism. Some people say this is different, but not a threat. (Immediately) Some people will say, after China becomes the most powerful country in the world, how should we adapt to this new situation? What we are arguing now is that the Chinese are coming soon. In some international organizations (such as the United Nations), China will ask us for political support. What should we do? Support or not?
The rise of any emerging power will raise doubts, but due to social, cultural and political differences, China’s rise will face even more doubts.
(Xue: Building the "Belt and Road" is the way for China to achieve its rise. You mean, China should make the "Belt and Road" easy to understand and accept by the West, right?)
Yes it is. The only feasible way for China is to move within the rule-based system. This is not easy, because the United States is leaving the system. If China is willing to act actively within the rules-based system, it will be regarded as a benign power. The United States after 1945 has played the tricks very well. Interestingly, Europe, China and Russia are now joining forces to oppose the United States and defend the Iran nuclear agreement.
3. Do you know the case of British participation in the “Belt and Road” investment?
I do not know. Some investment projects were later labeled as "One Belt One Road". I don’t know the specific case. Does the China-UK nuclear facility investment project count?
(Xue: Is the Hinkley Point project? In China, it is regarded as one of the “Belt and Road” projects. I'm not sure if this is the case in the UK.)
When we talk about this project, we don't think it is related to the "Belt and Road", but treat it as a Chinese investment project, a relatively large project.
(Xue: A Sino-French joint venture project.)
Yes it is. I think the British government has not signed an agreement (on the "Belt and Road") with the Chinese government.
I know that the train from China to London crosses many European countries along the way.
(Xue: This is a symbolic project. Compared with the number of sea freight, this railway has very limited transportation volume.)
This is a symbolic item, but it is very important. It makes people realize that the distance between China and Europe is not that far. In the past, it took 7 weeks to ship the goods by sea, but the train only took 2 weeks. This is very important information, it shortens the distance between the two ends of Eurasia.
4. Based on your observations, how does the British society comment on the “Belt and Road” initiative, whether it is positive, negative or neutral?
Frankly speaking, most British people don't know what the "Belt and Road" is. The “Belt and Road Initiative” is not well-known in the UK. Most businessmen should know it, and most British people (who have heard of the “Belt and Road”) treat it as an all-encompassing framework that covers everything China does, instead of treating it as a specific project.
5. According to your observation, what changes have taken place in China's foreign policy after the “Belt and Road” initiative was put forward?
"One Belt One Road" is part of China's assertive policy. China views the Beijing Olympics as a turning point. When I went to China before the Beijing Olympics, every Chinese would say that we are still a developing country and we cannot do things beyond national capabilities. After the Olympics, the way the Chinese speak has changed. They began to talk about Chinese power. This is something that happens slowly over time rather than suddenly. I think the “Belt and Road Initiative” is focused on expressing a view that China will not only be a regional power, but a global power. Therefore, China invests heavily in Africa, seeks bases in the Indian Ocean, and invests in Europe.
The “Belt and Road” is a concentrated expression of China as a global power rather than a regional power. China becomes richer, and China's interests are not limited to East Asia, but also involve Africa, Europe and Central Asia.
6. In your opinion, how does the "Belt and Road Initiative" affect China's national image? Better, worse or no change?
In Europe, China's national image must have deteriorated. This is partly due to the growth of China's power, partly because of the way China does business in the West, (and also) partly because of the way China expresses itself now. China has become more assertive and ambitious.
I remember that at a meeting in Shanghai, around 2013 or 2014, I met a retired senior military officer. His statement is very interesting, because it was in a private (party) occasion and there were no reporters.
We are talking about the nine-dash line. He was urged to clarify the meaning of the nine-dash line. It is necessary for China to do so. He joked that you in the West would not want to see the connotation of the nine-dash line clarified, that would upset you. Some people say, no, just say it. So, he said, it was not a discontinuous line, but a solid line. Then he said, look, now you are upset.
This is the first time I heard someone (Chinese) say that. Going back three or four years, he (definitely) wouldn't say that.
I am familiar with a senior Chinese diplomat who often participates in international conferences and found that his language has also changed.
(Xue: Did the words change, or just the tone of speech changed?)
The intonation has changed, and the language has also changed. The current statement is: You should realize that the world has changed, and China is already a big country. This is a fact. You should accept this new fact.
(Western) business people, if they only see China as a market to be developed, they may accept some things that make them uncomfortable (practice). However, with the passage of time, they do not want to accept it now. Last year, I stayed in Germany for three months. What some Germans said struck me (struck). These people have a lot of business in China. However, they have become more cautious about joint ventures with China and matters related to intellectual property rights. Moreover, their trust in China's behavior has been greatly reduced. Perhaps this is a classic thing, that is, when China becomes more powerful, the doubts of those dealing with it will deepen.
7. In your opinion, is China's South China Sea policy conducive to the construction of the "Belt and Road"?
Honestly, I don't know. It is not easy for China and the world to properly handle the South China Sea issue. I once communicated with a Chinese person. He said, look at what happened in the Caribbean at the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century. At that time, U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt vigorously developed the U.S. Navy, and the waters surrounding the United States were basically under British control, which had a large military base in the Caribbean. Britain's situation (in the Caribbean) was very similar to the situation of the United States in the South China Sea today.
Around 1905 or 1906, Americans began to cruise in the ocean, telling us that this is their territory, this is their waters, and we must leave. They made it clear: If we refuse to leave, they will expel us. At that time, Germany was vigorously developing its navy. After weighing, London finally decided to cede the Caribbean Sea to the Americans.
To some extent, people can continue to argue on this issue. I heard someone in Beijing said: What China is doing now is just repeating what the Americans did more than 100 years ago. This is indeed a fact. They are roughly the same but not exactly the same. The problem is that we should now behave like a modern nation-state, not as we did a hundred years ago. Today, we have the rules of the international system.
I found myself quite sympathetic. If I were Chinese, I would control my coastal waters. If I were Vietnamese or Japanese, I
I wonder, do we want a great power to control this extremely important choke point?
The Americans control this throat but allow freedom of navigation and ensure this. China says we will do the same. But do we believe in China? Do we understand China? It's difficult (to do).
I think of the “South China Sea Arbitration Case” filed by the Philippines. The refusal of the award has harmed China. Fu Ying (afterwards) came here to explain China's position. I saw the relevant briefing and felt that her statement was not convincing. You said: We are part of the international system, but we only partially agree to the law of the sea. All those (South China Sea) maritime disputes are not within the jurisdiction of the law of the sea and should be resolved bilaterally: with the Philippines, with Vietnam, or whatever. country.
How can you do this? This is difficult (successfully), right?
Of course, China will control this (South China Sea) waters for 30 to 50 years.
(Xue: You mean from now on?)
If you count from now, twenty-five or six years will be enough.
How does China achieve the peaceful transfer of (control of the South China Sea)? China must become a good international citizen. What China lacks now is soft power. The most important power can have over someone else is to persuade the other one to do something that you want them to do , but make them want to do that for you).
(Xue: How can China convince the West that she will become a good citizen of the world?)
This kind of thing happens from time to time. It may take a long time and will not happen in 5, 10, or 20 years. Consider the example of the United States. In 1873 or 1874 (should be around 1894-Xue Note), it surpassed the United Kingdom to become the largest economy, but it took another 50 years to become the number one global geopolitical power. My opinion is that the faster China rushes, the stronger the resistance it will encounter. Patience is very important.
8. Chairman Xi Jinping called the "One Belt One Road" a project of the century. In your opinion, is the “Belt and Road” initiative sustainable?
If the "Belt and Road" is a grand strategy, it should (make it) sustainable. One of my thoughts (and possibly wrong) is that most of the economic and geopolitical powers of the 20th century surrounded the Atlantic Ocean. Europe looked west toward the United States, and the United States looked east toward Europe. So it is a century of North Atlantic coast countries.
Now, China wants Europe to look east, and the 21st century powers will also focus on the Eurasian continent. This continent has 70% of the world’s land, 70% of the mineral resources, and 70% of the population.
For me, "One Belt One Road" is a strategy. For the Eurasian continent, this strategy may last for a century. Maybe this was said too early, but it is indeed my thought.
(Xue: How does the European Union position its relations with China? The transatlantic ties between the European Union and the United States are strong and strong. The European Union mainly values economic relations in its relations with China and Japan.)
This (the relationship between Europe and China exceeds the relationship between Europe and the United States) will be a long-term process, and there will be no changes in the short term, although Trump has made life very difficult for Europeans (making life very difficult for Europe). In the long run, Europe will still look to the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, but if China and the “Belt and Road” continue to develop for 10, 15 and 20 years, the business between Europe and the eastern part of the (Eurasian continent) will grow bigger and bigger. Political relations with the eastern part of the mainland will also be strengthened, and each other will adapt to the new situation (new accommodations). This is not easy. There will be many frictions and conflicts, and then the period of cooperation will begin.
(Xue: In your opinion, in the long run, Sino-European relations will surpass European-American relations?)
It may happen but not necessarily. If China uses its power wisely and behave very well, it may happen. If China used its economic power to induce political changes in Europe, or treated Europe as client states, it would not happen.
10. How can China be accepted by the world?
First of all, the problem is that the rise of any emerging power will incur doubts, which is normal. Secondly, China's cultural and political system is completely different from ours, and people will have more doubts about it. I am not accusing China of misbehaving. I mean, such doubts and fears are normal. The West has always been dominant in the past. Now you have to lose that advantage. I am not criticizing China either. (In a world dominated by the West), China wants to compete with and cooperate with it. What can it do to increase the trust of the West?
This is why I mentioned the international system again. We will operate within the international system. Of course, it does not necessarily operate within the existing international system. We can design a new system. We must abide by international rules like other countries.
Trump is undermining the rules of the European Union, and what he did is to say: We can do whatever we want, because we are strong. Therefore, Europeans feel that Trump is both dangerous and destructive. Let us wish Trump never show up here (in Europe).
What I want to say is that the rules are here for everyone (rules are here for everyone) and China must accept these rules.
11. In the context of "One Belt One Road", what role do you think the UK can play between China and Europe?
I am not very sure. Britain’s decision to withdraw from the European Union was a bad decision. It is now in a difficult situation, economically weak, and politically weak. It may take us ten years to recover. The UK is experiencing a "lost decade". In these ten years, we may only be a bystander. Prior to this, the United Kingdom had its own role in the European Union. We used to speak for free trade, for openness, and for liberalism. After leaving the European Union, our influence also disappeared. Britain's power and status have been severely weakened. We need to reposition ourselves, which may take about ten years.
(Xue: As far as Brexit is concerned, you are the most pessimistic person I have encountered in the past three weeks. Maybe this is because you are a keen observer)