- 2019-01-25
Europe cannot wait for Trump to step down
The United States showed its attitude. American friends in Europe cheered for it, but it was not enough. If democracy allows for frankness, most of the US partners in Nato will admit that they had hoped that the US midterm elections would deal a heavier blow to US President Donald Trump. The result now is far from satisfactory.
In the less than two years since Trump took office, people have seen too many unusual practices. Not long ago, Europeans were well aware of the "hierarchical system" of threats facing the continent. Trump's "America First" foreign policy and aggressive unilateralism have buried the certainties of the past.
Vladimir Putin's Russia has been at the top of any list of threats. The same is true of the imminent threat of Islamic terrorism and the possibility of impact from the conflict in the Middle East. China's strategic ambitions, the pressure caused by immigration, and the survival challenges brought about by climate change are ranked inconspicuously.
Looking at this issue today, most European leaders will add Trump to the threat list. Adversaries and potential adversaries want to gradually weaken the rules and systems that have ensured European security since 1945. The United States-the ally and designer of the European order-now seems to be happy to see this order completely abandoned. Trump values transactions more than allies, and military power rather than rules. The Western alliance based on values and military power won the Cold War. With Trump in charge of the White House, the United States and Europe no longer share common values.
Trump seems to be closer to Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan than to Angela Merkel of Germany and Emmanuel of France Emmanuel Macron. Trump’s two friends in Europe are the blatantly anti-liberal Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and the Polish Law and Justice Party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski. Jaroslaw Kaczynski), this is not accidental.
European liberals originally hoped that the midterm elections in the United States would be a clear sign of Trump's 2020 re-election failure. Then the next plan may be to "wait for him to step down"-hope that Iran can be persuaded to stick to its nuclear agreement with the international community, hope that the next US president will allow the United States to rejoin the Paris Climate Change Agreement, and hope that Trump The war caused by the provoked trade war can be brought under control.
The problem is that midterm elections rarely provide a reliable reference for subsequent presidential elections. Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama have all suffered midterm election losses, but they have all succeeded in re-election. As far as Trump is concerned, this election mainly reflects the serious differences in American society. The Democrats seized the House of Representatives, but Trump’s frantic nativist election campaign consolidated the Republican Party’s control of the Senate. Europeans should understand that there are not a few people who have similar views to Trump. They think that the United States is best to take care of itself instead of worrying about the views of foreign allies and the troubles they encounter.
The Democratic control of the House of Representatives actually broke Trump's hope of pushing domestic legislation before 2020. There is no doubt that the White House will be under greater pressure to respond to numerous inquiries and investigations on Trump's campaign and financial issues. However, Congress cannot impose too many constraints on Trump's foreign policy. Moreover, if Trump decides to launch more trade wars, some Democrats will also applaud with Republicans.
This is not to say that Trump's foreign policy will become easier. During Trump's first two years in office, his foreign policy mainly included a series of gestures. At some point in the future, people will want to know what (if any) the goals of their foreign policy are. For example, he held a summit with Kim Jong Un of North Korea. Obviously, Kim Jong Un has no intention of abandoning North Korea's nuclear weapons program.
Trump also bet on Iran. His plan is that the United States re-imposes sanctions and will force the Tehran regime to yield. Nothing in the past has shown that this will happen—plus that Europe, China, and Russia all believe it must comply with the nuclear agreement, and Iran is even less likely to succumb.
Impulsive diplomacy prompted Trump to choose Saudi Arabia as his first destination after taking office. After the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul, Trump made another seemingly unwise judgment. As for the trade war, he would be stupid if he underestimated China's determination.
Even so, waiting for the situation to improve is not a strategy for Europe. Whether Trump’s successor—whether he takes office in 2021 or later—will allow the United States to embrace multilateralism again is uncertain.
Europe cannot get rid of its dependence on the United States all at once. To be fair, even Trump is sometimes persuaded that allies are useful-even NATO may act as the front line of US defense.
Europeans should be prepared to face even less powerful promises. To maintain the things that can be maintained in the rules-based global order, Europe needs to make more immediate contributions and strengthen cooperation with like-minded democracies such as Canada, Japan, and Australia.