- 2019-03-12
Prospects for Sino-Russian Relations under the "One Belt One Road"
Russia has tilted its foreign policy towards Asia, which has mainly brought about two results. First, the relationship between Russia and China has become closer. China is an Asian power and a rising global power. Second, Russia’s foreign policy has increasingly valued Central Asian countries. Central Asia has become the main area of cooperation between the "Eurasian Economic Union" initiated by Russia and the "Silk Road Economic Belt" initiated by China.
Obviously, Russia is increasingly acquiescing in China's continuous intervention in the post-Soviet space, especially in Central Asia. This is unprecedented. Russia has always rejected Western countries' intervention there. At least part of the reason for the change in Russia’s attitude is the flexible skills of China’s diplomacy: Western countries try to interact with post-Soviet countries through unilateral actions, neither soliciting nor soliciting support from Russia, and almost disregarding Russia’s strategic sensitivity, while China is Adopting a cooperative attitude, trying to take Russia's interests into consideration.
China and Russia are actually in the best interests of all parties, including Western countries, because the two countries help maintain fragile world peace. Even if we assume that the main goal of Western policymakers is to curb Russia’s unilateral belligerent tendencies (whether it is an objective existence or just a subjective feeling) and return it to the track of compromise politics, China as a prudent foreign policy The influence of the country, as well as a potential mediation intermediary country, is also extremely conducive to the achievement of this goal.
Imagine three possible scenarios for the development of Sino-Russian relations. The changes in the security situation in Central Asia and the attitudes of Western countries towards China and Russia are two variables that we consider.
Scenario 1: The Eurasian Economic Union and the Silk Road Economic Belt complement each other
In 2015, the main political event in Sino-Russian bilateral relations was the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Russia in May. The two countries signed a declaration on cooperation between the Eurasian Economic Union and the Silk Road Economic Belt, which confirmed the future cooperation plan. If we carefully examine the text of the declaration, we will find that the word "economy" appears twice in the title. Obviously, the cooperation that the two countries are trying to strengthen is mainly cooperation in the economic field.
The Silk Road Economic Belt can make transportation in Central Asia smoother. This strategy is based on a very successful economic development strategy in China: The development experience of China's mountainous provinces proves that by building roads, breaking the isolation of some regions can effectively promote economic development.
However, the Silk Road Economic Belt strategy currently cannot solve the problem of jurisdiction over the infrastructure network after it is completed. Foreign countries are different from Chinese provinces. When China invests funds into roads and other facilities that will eventually be operated by foreign governments, how to protect the income of Chinese investors is indeed a question.
But in fact, the Eurasian Economic Union, which is mainly inspired by the European Union (EU), is fully capable of solving this jurisdictional issue. In fact, the European Union has passed a series of so-called "railway directives", that is, supranational EU laws, which set a legislative precedent for cross-border railway operations. Beginning in 1991, the European Union has gradually liberalized market access for railway operations, allowing companies outside the railway infrastructure to participate. As a result, the number of cross-border railways has increased significantly. Companies such as Eurostar, Thalys, TGV, etc. Operations.
Scenario 2: Security threats in Central Asia may push China and Russia to form a tactical alliance
In September 2015, there was a piece of news that was barely noticed by the Western media: an Islamic coup attempt occurred in Tajikistan, a Central Asian country. Tajikistan is adjacent to Afghanistan, and its residents are ethnically similar to those of northern Afghanistan. The country has a long and painful history of ethnic struggles. This period of history is often ideologically portrayed as a conflict between the secular government and the Islamist opposition.
Vasily Kashin, a well-known Russian military expert, pointed out in a speech at the Tsinghua World Peace Forum in June 2015: "(Central Asia) may break out of a comprehensive security crisis in the medium term." Kashin believes that if such a crisis breaks out, given that the region is adjacent to China and Russia, the two countries' intervention is almost inevitable, and the degree of intervention will depend on the severity of the threat.
China and Russia have already begun to prepare for such an unexpected event. Since 2005, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has allowed military exercises to be held under its framework, and China and Russia have also jointly participated in the exercises. From this perspective, some Russian military experts have long called for the enhancement of the defense potential of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, especially the strengthening of military coordination between China and Russia. The most eye-catching representative is General Anatoly Klimenko of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Scenario 3: Threats to the political stability of China and Russia may accelerate the trend of a new multi-polar world order
The "One Belt, One Road" strategy and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) are by far the most ambitious development initiatives put forward by non-Western countries. Although it is too early to judge whether these two initiatives will succeed, they are clearly successful in terms of soft power. AIIB has more than 50 founding member states, including Russia. China and Russia have signed an important declaration on cooperation around the "Silk Road Economic Belt". The most important thing is that in the countries involved in this plan, political and economic decision makers predict that the plan will succeed. This shows the international confidence in China, which is hard-won, and China has every reason to be proud of it.
It can be said that the main advantage of China's diplomatic strategy is that while China promises to provide development support, it does not challenge the political power of local elites. The Western approach to conditional on economic and political reforms has been criticized and is believed to have caused conflicts in many parts of the world. In this case, China's approach is more attractive. As a non-Western country, China can learn Western development methods on the one hand, and on the other hand retains the right to choose the best international experience based on its own needs.