Depth report

　　

The elections in March this year are becoming a watershed in Russia's political future. Under the appearance that Putin is expected to win, people are engaged in intense activities and speculations about the president's future, possible constitutional reforms, and even Putin's control over daily affairs.

    Political analyst Nikolai Petrov said: “The question is not who the voters choose to lead the country in the next six years, but whether, when and how Putin will hand over power to his successor.”

    Petrov said: "Putin has transformed into a different political image in the past few years." He said: "Putin is now a'leader' (vozhd, in modern Russian mainly used to refer to communist leaders- Translator's Note)." The word vozhd has been rarely used since the Soviet dictator Josef Stalin.

    Petrov believes that Putin's high approval rating is mainly based on his prestige as a military commander, which he obtained through geopolitical power games, including the annexation of Crimea and military operations in Syria.

    But after Putin's re-election, the situation will change significantly. People close to the Kremlin and independent observers believe that this year the Kremlin will begin to fight to ensure Putin's long-term power in the future-under the current rules, his term after re-election will be the last term.

    Alexei Venediktov, editor-in-chief of the Ekho Moskvy radio station, wrote on the messaging service Telegram in November 2017: "I absolutely believe that Vladimir Vladimi Rovich Putin will still not give up power in 2024. That means... it is necessary to change the setting of power and transfer the main power to an institution other than the presidency."

    The Russian Constitution stipulates that the president can be re-elected for up to two consecutive terms. In order to circumvent this restriction, Putin asked Medvedev to run for president in 2008, and he himself switched to the post of prime minister. After that, he returned to the presidency in 2012. This is the "castling" strategy that is widely known in Moscow, but outsiders believe that Putin may not be able to repeat the same trick in 2024.

    Tatyana Stanovaya, head of the analysis department of the Centre for Political Technologies of Russia, said: “In 2008, he knew he would return, but in 2024, he was already a The old man. He knows that if he makes another'royal car translocation', he may encounter resistance during the transitional period."

    An idea under discussion is to transform the State Council, the presidential advisory body introduced during Putin's tenure, into a powerful main governance body similar to the Chinese central government. When Putin becomes the leader of the State Council, he will not be shackled by the term limit.

    "The presidency will continue to exist in the form of a ceremonial head of state, or it will be abolished directly." A person familiar with the discussion about this proposal said, "You can also call it Putin's permanent model."

    However, some observers believe that such radical changes are risky for Putin. "The evolution of his leadership style is similar to that of China under Xi Jinping, but it would be a mistake to try to copy the Chinese system," Petrov said. "They may be studying how to make him retain a certain degree of influence after he officially retires, but This is also risky, because unlike China, Russia has not experienced informal leadership."

    These intense brainstorms are not only to lay the foundation for Putin to retain influence after the end of the next presidential term. Another reason is Putin's governance in recent years, especially in domestic affairs.

    "I strongly oppose the malicious remarks that our president is making himself a vozhd, but in the past two or three years, he has changed his way of working." said a person who has a long-term family relationship with Putin, "the most important thing. Yes, he does focus on our country’s global interests and security, leaving the specific details of domestic affairs to others. Our institutional structure does not reflect this very well."

    People familiar with the reform discussion said that members of Putin's inner circle took advantage of Putin's growing exhaustion of domestic politics to implement their own policies and even seek personal gain.

    "The biggest issues are still decided by Putin, but many other issues are handled by persuasion," Stanovaya said. Igor Sechin, the chief executive of state-owned Rosneft, has long lobbied for the dismantling of the state-owned gas monopoly Gazprom, but Putin rejected the proposal. Putin also opposes measures to raise the pension age that his economic adviser Alexei Kudrin (Alexei Kudrin) has repeatedly promoted. But other economic decisions were made almost without Putin's participation. The governor of the Russian Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, has the full authority to deal with the increasing liquidity problems in the Russian banking industry, which led to the de facto acquisition of the two largest private banks in Russia this year.

    A company controlled by Putin’s childhood friend and judo sparring partner Arkady Rotenberg obtained a license for a controversial road freight toll system, after rising costs for small transportation companies led to continuous protests , Putin did not intervene.

    Another member of Putin's inner circle, Sergei Chemezov, who heads the defense group Rostec, also recently won a victory. One of Chemesov’s disciples, Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov (Denis Manturov) supported the merger of Sukhoi fighter jet manufacturer United Aircraft Corporation (United Aircraft Corporation) into Rostec, two Officials said the decision does not require Kremlin approval.

    Former Russian Minister of Economy Alexei Ulyukaev (Alexei Ulyukaev) has been accused of corruption for trying to oppose Rosneft’s acquisition of a smaller competitor, which also reflects Putin’s loosening of control over domestic affairs . The trapping operation at Rosneft’s headquarters a year ago ended in the arrest of Ulukayev. The operation was helped by Sechin. Sechin’s friendship with Putin began when the two worked in the security department in their early years. .

    As the trial of Ulukayev unfolded, there were many contradictions between the former Minister of Economy’s description of the incident and the testimony provided by Sechin’s earlier testimony. Ulukayev's actions were instructed by Putin, so signs of such open conflicts would never appear.

    Now, as Russia prepares for Putin's final term, Russia's political elites are seeking to protect their interests through constitutional reforms.

    A person with a family relationship with Putin said that some internal struggles should be attributed to constitutional flaws, because they allow conflicting power centers to appear in the presidential team and the prime minister's government. A proposal called for the government to be incorporated into the presidential team, just like the United States.

    Analysts said that no matter what the current plans of Putin's party members are, the debate will still be confusing before Putin decides how to consolidate his power.

    Television reporter Alexander Nevzorov recently compared Putin to a sleeping tiger in a radio discussion: “He can take a nap, make a snoring sound, stretch his huge paws, and open them. One eye on his striped muzzle. He can still watch different political rats dancing in front of him."

    In anticipation of the expected constitutional revision, Vladimir Bortko, a member of the Duma from the Communist Party loyal to the Kremlin, proposed a draft proposal for the convening of a constitutional convention in the parliament. The major changes in the basic structure of the proposed constitution are required. He said that in the laissez-faire 1990s, the basic law formulated by the "liberals" was out of fashion.

    However, critics of the Kremlin warned that even though Putin has ruled Russia's political life for 18 years, it is still difficult for him to decide Russia's future with his own wishes.

    "The Kremlin has eliminated many checks and balances in regional and regional politics, and has greatly reduced the scope of political debate at all levels, which makes it currently lack of channels to accurately understand the situation at the grassroots level," Petrov said. He believes that Putin has too much power, which prevents young politicians who are loyal to the system from building resources and influence, both of which are indispensable to any reliable successor.

    "Ironically, this means that in a few years, when the succession issue really becomes urgent, the only one who is prepared will be Navalny, who has built a support base and built a network of organizations across the country." Petrov Added.

    Navalny himself has made it clear that what he seeks is long-term. At present, he can only watch the Kremlin cynically preparing for the general election.

    "Those guys in Moscow who call themselves presidential candidates, their campaign is mainly to write two articles a week, half a page each. Their helpers in the media will publish these articles. Political analysts and experts then Start discussing their opportunities and hidden signals," Navalny wrote on Telegram. "What a power struggle."