Depth report

　　

So far this year, a total of five listed banks have triggered the trigger conditions for share price stabilisation measures. Behind this is the stock price downturn of listed banks and the resulting large area "broken net". However, when the valuation of bank stocks was depressed, NBI quietly increased its holdings, with a net purchase of more than 5.6 billion yuan in the past month, ranking first among 31 Shenwan first-level industries.

Industry insiders believe that as the steady credit policy continues to increase, the bank business environment will continue to improve, the pace of credit will accelerate, the current bank plate is worth paying attention to.

Two banks are new to the list

A few days ago, Ruifeng Bank, Qilu Bank respectively announced that the company's stock has been 20 consecutive trading days of closing price below the net asset per share, to trigger the start of the stock price stabilization measures.

Specifically, from April 26 to May 9, the closing price of Ruifeng Bank's stock was lower than the audited net asset per share of 2021 by 8.99 yuan per share for seven consecutive trading days. From May 10 to May 26, the closing price of the company's stock for 13 consecutive trading days was below the audited net asset per share of rmb8.81 / share in 2021, adjusted for ex-option and ex-dividend.

Qilu Bank's latest audited net asset value per share was 5.86 yuan. Since April 26 to May 26, the company's stock has been lower than the company's latest audited net asset value per share for 20 consecutive trading days.

The two banks said in their statement that they would then work out and launch specific plans to stabilize share prices as they have triggered the conditions for the measures.

According to the stock price stabilization plan, the bank and relevant subjects can take one or more measures to stabilize the stock price, including buying back some shares from the public shareholders, controlling shareholders and directors (except independent directors) and senior managers to increase their shares, and stabilizing the stock price by implementing profit distribution or capital reserve fund to increase the share capital; Cutting expenses, limiting executive pay, suspending equity incentive plans and so on. According to past experience, stock price stabilization plans of listed banks mainly include controlling shareholders or the largest shareholder increasing their shares, shareholders holding more than 5% increasing their shares, and Dong Jinggao increasing their shares, etc.

Northbound capital moves to increase holdings

According to incomplete statistics, since this year, there have been zheshang Bank, Chongqing Bank, Xiamen Bank, Ruifeng Bank, Qilu Bank 5 banks triggered the start conditions of stock price stabilization measures, last year, the number of 2.

A number of banks triggered the trigger conditions for stabilising share prices, and the secondary market performance of listed banks is not unrelated. Data showed that as of May 30, the Shenwan Bank index has fallen 5.93% this year. At the same time, the phenomenon of listed banks breaking net is becoming more and more obvious. On May 30, the Shenman Bank index closed at just 0.54 times book value.

Wei Zhengyu, an analyst at Huafu Securities, said that since 2020, the overall valuation level of banks has been low. In the past half year, it is at a historical low level in the past 10 years, in line with the PB valuation of the banking sector in overseas developed markets.

However, the low valuation of the banking sector by northbound funds "favour". In recent period of time, northbound funds to show greater enthusiasm, buying bank stocks. According to Wind data, as of May 27, nBI has net purchased more than 5.6 billion yuan in the banking sector through Landshare since May, ranking first among 31 Shenwan first-level industries.

In terms of individual stocks, compared with May 1, a total of 20 stocks in the banking sector were increased by northbound funds on May 27. Among them, NBI capital increased its holdings of Agricultural Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Bank of Jiangsu by more than 50 million shares.

The pace of credit delivery can be accelerated

Recently, the steady credit policy continued to increase. On May 23, the People's Bank of China and the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission held a meeting to analyze the monetary and credit situation of major financial institutions. On the same day, the People's Bank of China held a teleconference on system-wide monetary and credit situation analysis to make plans for the current and next stage of credit work.

Industry insiders believe that the two meetings focused on credit work, released a strong policy signal to guide the expansion of credit, indicating that "wide credit" has become the key to the current financial support for stable growth, conducive to the improvement of the bank business environment.

Everbright Securities financial industry research team said that under the push of the regulatory authorities, banks will accelerate the pace of credit issuance, new credit data in May may resume year-on-year growth. In the initial stage of the new round of credit expansion, it is expected that large banks and policy banks will play a major role and increase lending to major projects in advance by virtue of capital cost advantages. At the same time, it is expected that short-term loans to the public and bill financing will also be significantly rushed in the short term, thus facilitating the promotion of "wide credit".

Looking forward to the second half of the year, the bank research team of Zheshang Securities said that with the steady growth policy continued to force, it is expected that the growth rate of bank assets in the second half of the year will be stable and rising. Among them, the stock bank pressure before more obvious, is expected to benefit from stable growth force; In the Yangtze River Delta region, some small and medium-sized banks that were more affected by the epidemic are also expected to see their needs repaired.

"The current buying bank shares is equal to buying economic positive options, firmly optimistic about the current banking sector investment opportunities." The banking research team of Zheshang Securities expects that the revenue of listed banks will grow by 5.7% year-on-year in 2022, with the growth rate basically unchanged in the first quarter of 2022. In 2022, the profits of listed banks increased by 9.6% year-on-year, higher than the 6.5% compound growth rate from 2019 to 2021. Starting from the second quarter of 2022, the profit growth rate will show a trend of steady while rising.

In addition to fundamental support, low valuation has also become one of the reasons why insiders are optimistic about bank stocks. Wei Zhengyu said, "The current valuation level of the banking sector is at a historically low level, we are optimistic about the follow-up performance of the banking sector. In the medium and long term, banking industry transformation continues to advance. In the wave of digital economy, banking industry makes efforts to fintech, superimposed retail virtual scene diversification, and there is a large space for future valuation repair."