Depth report

　　

Battery manufacturers go deep into Southeast Asia localization plant can not be separated from the vehicle factory drive.

In July, three domestic lithium manufacturers announced plans to build factories in Southeast Asia. In the era of the comprehensive "sea" of the lithium battery industry, Southeast Asia has become a new "sea landing point" for various manufacturers. The industry believes that following the pace of new energy vehicle companies to build localized factories in Southeast Asia, not only brings new growth opportunities for lithium battery manufacturers, but also avoids potential trade barrier risks by dispersing battery shipments, and improves the global layout of the lithium battery industry chain.

Demand for electrification in Southeast Asia brings growth opportunities

Recently, domestic lithium battery manufacturers began to intensively explore the new energy market in Southeast Asia. In July, Zhuhai Guanyu and Xinwang Da respectively planned to build consumer battery factories in Malaysia and Vietnam, and Yiwei Lithium Energy announced plans to build new energy storage and consumer battery manufacturing projects in Malaysia.

Battery manufacturers go deep into Southeast Asia localization plant can not be separated from the vehicle factory drive. At present, car companies such as Ian, BYD, Great Wall and Nezha have announced the localization of new energy vehicles in Southeast Asia.

Industry insiders pointed out that battery manufacturers follow the pace of this round of "going to sea" of Oems, which is expected to improve the electric industry chain supporting the Southeast Asian market.

From the perspective of market opportunities, the electrification market in Southeast Asia is still in its initial stage, and the current two-wheeler and small passenger car markets are developing rapidly, which brings growth opportunities for lithium battery manufacturers. According to the Paris Agreement targets, Southeast Asian countries must deploy about 21GW of renewable energy per year by 2030. Market research agency Mordor Intelligence Consulting Company analysis believes that the ASEAN electric vehicle market is expected to exceed 2.6 billion US dollars in 2027, and by 2035, the sales of electric vehicles in ASEAN will exceed fuel vehicles. An industry insider told reporters: "Southeast Asia's electric industry chain is in the early stage of development, and companies entering the market as early as possible can help enhance their local voice."

Entering Southeast Asia may be a "way" to target the global market

Compared with the European and American market, the "traditional investment hot land" of the lithium battery industry chain, the difficulty for manufacturers to build factories in Southeast Asia is relatively small. True lithium research founder and chief analyst Mo Ke told reporters that the political and cultural atmosphere in Southeast Asia is relatively more similar to the domestic, and due to the geographical distance, when the Southeast Asian lithium industry chain industrial support is not perfect, it is convenient to obtain raw materials and equipment from China.

In addition, ASEAN countries have introduced relevant policies in recent years to support the development of the electric vehicle industry. In terms of resources, Indonesia's nickel mineral resources account for about 22% of the global nickel reserves, and the rich upstream resources will provide cost advantages for manufacturers investing in projects there.

However, Moke pointed out that considering the high market share and consumption level in Europe and the United States, lithium battery manufacturers may be intensive in Southeast Asia to build factories as a "springboard" in Southeast Asia, and the ultimate "sea" goal is the broader global market.

"At present, the trade policy of Europe and the United States on the export of electric vehicles and lithium batteries is not optimistic, if the batteries produced by Southeast Asian factories are exported to Europe and the United States, the conditions will not be so harsh." Liu Jincheng, chairman of Yi Wei Lithium Energy, also said at the first lithium battery conference this year that the delivery of its Malaysian plant can effectively avoid the potential risk of tariffs.

The reporter learned that the new round of US 301 tariff policy against China applies to products from China or products of Chinese origin. If lithium manufacturers choose to build production bases in Southeast Asia, not only the cost is lower, but the products they produce can also enjoy low tariff treatment.

However, it is not easy to set up a factory in Southeast Asia.

On May 16 this year, the US Department of Commerce announced the launch of anti-dumping and countervailing investigations into crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. "Therefore, whether Southeast Asia can become another high ground for the lithium battery industry is still uncertain, and manufacturers need to pay close attention to market and policy changes." "Merkle said.

Investment to go out to maintain a cautious attitude

Dongxing Securities research report believes that China's power battery enterprises, with the development of a mature and complete industrial chain and the continuous improvement of product competitiveness under the high-speed iteration of technology, actively expand overseas markets and continue to seize the share of Japanese and Korean enterprises.

It is worth noting that in the past, the ASEAN market was mainly occupied by Japanese and Korean manufacturers. Recently, the marketing methods of some Chinese car companies in the Southeast Asian market have caused some controversy.

In terms of battery companies "going to sea", Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Ningde Times, suggested in the two sessions proposal that enterprises should compete orderly when going out, learn the painful lessons of Chinese motorcycle exports to Southeast Asia market, and avoid the vicious price war of "a crowd and a crowd" again.

A few days ago, Wang Yu, chairman of Fu can technology, said in an interview with the media that the more hot the "sea" investment, the more cautious. Wang Yu said, "Before opening up the market, we need to ensure that the technology passes, and we need to research the market clearly." Blind expansion can lead to problems, and many companies that have expanded production on a large scale are facing difficulties.

"Some countries do not have mature battery factories, so the global market opportunity is very large." But because battery technology is developing very fast, car companies should not blindly expand production capacity." Wang Yu said.