Depth report

　　

The global trend of strongman leaders is now firmly established, from the East to the West, from democracies to dictatorships. The main figures include China’s Xi Jinping, U.S. Donald Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, while Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Recep Tayyip) Erdogan and Rodrigo Duterte (Rodrigo Duterte) of the Philippines are in the lesser place on this unflattering ranking.

      But is Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on this list? The answer matters. India, with a population of more than 1.3 billion, may soon surpass China to become the world's most populous country. In terms of purchasing power, India is now the world's third largest economy, with an annual economic growth of more than 7%. As James Crabtree wrote in his forthcoming book "The Billionaire Raj": "As democracy shakes in the West, the future of democracy in India has never been as it is now. It was so important."

      Modi's position on the dictatorship-democracy spectrum is ambiguous, which adds to the importance of India. The Prime Minister of India is a serious economic reformer, and he is indeed very popular. His style is not as fierce as Putin or Erdogan; nor as wild as Trump or Duterte. And he has far more checks and balances than Xi Jinping.

    However, the conversation I had in India last week reminded me of similar discussions in the United States, China and Turkey in the past year. Liberals share the same concerns about the threats to press freedom and the independence of the courts. People worry that their country’s leaders are deliberately polarizing society in order to consolidate their political foundations. Such concerns are familiar.

    The comparison between Modi and Trump may best illustrate the problem. Both leaders lead mature democracies, and they both came to power by showing support for the silent majority in the election campaign while opposing corrupt elites and allegedly spoiled minorities. Both have made increasingly extreme political statements on television and social media. Both have been using identity politics to gain support and regard Muslims as an "outside group" they can call to oppose.

    This is like playing with fire in India, because there are about 180 million Muslims living here, which is the largest minority group in any country in the world. Modi’s political party, the Bharatiya Janata, is often described as an “Indian populist”. In the latest Indian elections, among the 282 Bharatiya Janata Party members elected to the parliament, not a single Muslim. It seems that there are new controversies that cause tension between different groups every week.

    In a recent shocking example, an 8-year-old Muslim girl in northern India was gang raped and killed. Some local leaders of the Bharatiya Janata Party participated in demonstrations and rallies to support the murder suspect, the latter being a Hindu. However, Modi's public statement was slow. The case prompted 49 retired senior civil servants to write an open letter to Modi, accusing him of inciting "terrible hatred, fear and vicious atmosphere" in India, and stating that "in India after independence, this is our darkest moment."

    Modi's allies argue that his real agenda is development and economics, not cultural issues. Modi's reputation as an efficient economic reformer when he was the chief minister of Gujarat has inspired many of his supporters in the business world.

    On the national stage, Modi's performance has been mixed. Some measures, such as “de-monetization” in 2016 (the sudden abolition of 86% of the country’s cash to curb the black economy) may do more harm than good. But Modi’s other reforms will improve India’s long-term prospects, such as the introduction of a national goods and services tax. This tax is too complicated. Nonetheless, it helped eliminate trade barriers among Indian states and expanded India’s tax base.

    Strong economic growth, Modi’s personal popularity, and relative social peace have helped improve the prime minister’s reputation, turning him from an almost untouchable image who was once barred from entering the United States for allegedly supporting violence between different groups in Gujarat. A well-respected international figure.

    If Modi wins again in the 2019 general election, it will consolidate his position as one of the world's leading political figures. But this will not allay people's worries about his political plan. As the examples of Putin and Erdogan have shown, the longer strongman leaders are in power, they tend to gradually become more and more authoritarian.

      However, economists predict that the Indian economy will expand even faster this fiscal year. Anubhuti Sahay, head of South Asia Economics at Standard Chartered Bank, said that the new data is very healthy and confirms that the Indian economy is already in a recovery mode. The growth rate this fiscal year is expected to rise to 7.2%, returning to the level of growth before de-monetization.

    For Modi, who is seeking re-election, this data may help his approval rating. With the general election approaching next year, Modi hopes to push the Indian economy forward at full speed. More than 10 million people in the country join the labor market every year, and enough jobs need to be created to meet demand. According to the Indian government, “the rapid growth of agriculture (4.5%), manufacturing (9.1%) and construction (11.5%) has boosted the overall economic growth.”

    However, private investment, which is essential for creating new jobs, has lagged behind, and exports are still weak; due to the heavy debt burden of farmers, the demand in rural areas has not yet fully recovered.

    Shailesh Kumar, head of Asia at the Eurasian Group, said that with the acceleration of economic growth, many voters, especially in rural areas, have not felt any benefit. However, he also added that Modi's policies have helped lower inflation and ensured that "support for him will not be shaken."