Depth report

　　

The Japanese government is actively beckoning to senior executives in the private sector and providing them with subsidies, hoping to train them to become senior officials of international organizations in order to increase the number of senior Japanese officials working in international organizations. Japan’s move shows that even though U.S. President Donald Trump expressed his “diminished interest” in multilateralism, the United States still has extensive influence in the world’s major international organizations. If Japan wants to increase its international voice, it must be in the existing international multilateral order. Deeply cultivated and strive to seek breakthroughs.

    The background of this move is that Japan, which pays dues to the United Nations only second to the United States, had 820 Japanese serving in the United Nations and related international organizations as of the end of 2016, but only 77 of them held senior positions in related organizations. The Japanese government hopes to strengthen Japan’s right to speak in the international community by increasing the number of senior officials in international organizations.

    But we should see that, more importantly, the Japanese government has realized what "If You Can't Beat Them, Join Them" is.

    Although US President Trump held high the banner of "America First" and even publicly "retired" in many international organizations, it has not changed the status quo that the United States is still the mainstay of most major international organizations. There is no sign of decline in the current United States. The decline of a powerful country is often first due to a severe economic recession, coupled with excessive military expansion, and social and political problems before it will fall. In fact, the United States continues to have extensive and far-reaching influence on international organizations by virtue of its super economic, financial and military strength. Although it has withdrawn from some international organizations, the United States has not given up the personnel rights of some key international organizations. .

    A report issued by a US think tank shows that among the 53 major international organizations in the world, the US is the largest funder of nearly half of the international organizations (24), dominating the main voice and personnel rights of these international organizations, and tied for second. Japan and the United Kingdom are the biggest benefactors of nine international organizations. As the world's second largest economy, China is not the biggest benefactor of any international organization for the time being. To become the largest funder of an international organization and to have the dominance of the international organization, it is not just based on the total GDP, or money, Over Pay, as many people think, but there are many comprehensive factors such as economy, Material, social, resource and political considerations.

    It can be said that even if the United States completely abandons multilateralism, it does not mean that Japan, the United Kingdom, or China can replace the United States in dominating international affairs. One of the most important reasons is that the United States will continue to dominate the world order in the near future, which is more in line with the current interests of all countries.

    If the current international society is compared to the "underworld", then the United States is the leader of this "underworld." Although this leader has always been strict with people and lenient to himself, if the world lacks the United States, it is likely to be as in the movie. As it appears, not only will large countries compete for territory with each other, but also some small and medium-sized countries will also fight each other. For example, the Middle East countries and Israel, India and Pakistan, North Korea and South Korea will not have the checks and balances of the United States, which will trigger regional wars at any time. When it breaks out, the world will fall into chaos, which will only bring more troubles and threats to most countries than it is now.

    Especially for China, if there is no United States, will the countries along the “Belt and Road” be more wary of China and more worried about being controlled by China, which will result in the cooperation between China and the countries along the “Belt and Road” not being as smooth as it is now What? It is worth pondering for every reader.

    Therefore, under the consideration of this Can't Beat Them, Japan chose Join Them, and the results are beautiful. It can be seen from public news media reports that although international organizations are still dominated by the United States and Western European countries, Japan is not inferior. The current Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Secretary General of the International Customs Organization are respectively composed of Japanese officials Yukiya Amano and In addition to the above-mentioned two who have been promoted to the highest officials of important international organizations, the Japanese chef has served as the top officials of important international organizations. The Japanese have also served as important officials such as the International Maritime Organization, the World Health Organization, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, the United Nations Refugee Agency, and the International Energy Agency. The position of the highest official of the organization has contributed greatly to the Japanese government's long-sleeved dance in international affairs and the formulation and revision of international rules.

    Under the new international order, in addition to the emergence of many emerging countries and the emergence of many new markets, which have triggered competition among countries for international market share, the confrontation between countries has shifted from the past politics and military to the current economic, Confrontation in the currency field, more and more countries tend to replace military alliances with regional economic and trade agreements, and more and more countries choose to use financial weapons, commodity prices and currency exchange rates to attack hostile countries in order to consume The economic and political foundation of the other party. More and more countries believe that sanctions against other countries, through economic sanctions, trade embargo and other means, can destroy their regimes more effectively than military strikes.

    In this new era of “geo-economics”, the original World Bank, the World Monetary Fund, and the Group of Twenty (G20) summits and other international organizations have been more difficult to resolve global issues and international conflicts to resolve the many challenges mentioned above. There is no new international order that can be completely replaced, and a terrible vacuum has slowly appeared in the national order.

    The implementation of the new international order on China's "One Belt One Road" will also have an impact that is difficult to estimate for the time being. For example, the “going out” of Chinese companies will inevitably face competition for international market share, especially the competition with Western European, American, and Japanese companies in the markets along the “Belt and Road”. Cooperation may just be pure good wishes. For another example, Western countries can use financial weapons, commodity prices and other means to consume China’s foreign exchange reserves to impact the RMB exchange rate, making countries along the “Belt and Road” unwilling to hold the RMB or even whether China has sufficient strength to continue to promote the “Belt and Road”. "All the way" raises doubts.