Depth report

　　

According to the forecast of the credit insurance company Yuli Aventura, the growth rate of global trade volume in 2017 will reach about 4.3%, and in 2018 it will be only 3.9%. In terms of total trade, it is expected to increase by 7.5% in 2017 and 6.3% in 2018.

    The report pointed out that the strong increase in demand mainly comes from the United States, the Eurozone and emerging Asia. In terms of exports, Europe and Asia have benefited the most from global trade. Of particular concern is China, whose total exports of goods and services will increase by US$166 billion in 2017 and will continue to grow by US$129 billion in 2018.

    Looking forward to 2018, the British "Financial Times"'s slightly late forecast for the next year's trade policy (statement in advance, the forecast is often inaccurate):

Trump shows restraint in trade

    When Trump entered the White House a year ago, he complained about the "catastrophe" in the economic field. But the American president quickly changed his position, and since then he has been praising the US economic recovery and the stock market soaring. At the Davos Forum to be held later this month, he is likely to once again flaunt his contributions in these two areas. What will this mean for trade? (In addition, we want to make it clear that we don’t think Trump will reduce firepower, become less combative, or less controversial on other issues.) More and more people continue to warn him that he is most sure of destroying the economy. Or the stock market’s move is to start a trade war, or to withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement signed with Canada and Mexico. Last week, Canadian officials worried that the United States would withdraw from the agreement soon. The sharp drop clearly reflects this.

    This does not mean that we do not think that Trump will take actions that he would call tough on China or other countries, or make a lot of noise. Our confirmation is that Trump will do this. We just think that any action he will take will be inferior to the action he threatened to take during the campaign. In other words, we do not think that his actions will trigger a full-scale trade war.

China's efforts to gain global leadership will face a backlash

    Xi Jinping’s speech to elites from all walks of life in Davos last year received great attention. Many people said that that moment marked a shift in global leadership and another nail in the coffin of the post-war liberal order. Xi Jinping's "One Belt, One Road" initiative has been hailed as an amazing strategy. However, there are also signs that China may have tried too hard or hastily. The United States and the European Union may introduce new investment restrictions in response to the efforts of China and its mergers and acquisitions of technology and other strategic industry companies this year. This year's "One Belt One Road" initiative may also encounter resistance from some countries along the route.

The UK will discuss in the first half of 2018 what kind of trade relations it hopes to maintain with the EU after Brexit, and then go back in the second half of the year

    Looking at the Brexit negotiations from a place separated by the Atlantic Ocean, I am surprised: 18 months after the vote that shook the global liberal order, there are still many uncertainties surrounding the goals of the United Kingdom itself. Continue to stay in this single market, disconnect from the EU Customs Union, or completely break with them all? It is not clear whether Theresa May's government knows what it is pursuing, or what the British public and business community will accept.

The World Trade Organization's situation is getting worse

    This is an area where we don't think Trump will exercise restraint. The Trump administration’s obstruction of the appointment of new members of the WTO’s Appellate Body has made people worry that the United States has begun to take action to weaken the system. Of course Washington is seeking change, and things will only get worse. Three of the seven seats in the WTO Appellate Body have been vacated. By the end of September this year, it is expected that another seat will be vacated, and only three members will be left to handle the ever-increasing number of cases. Our hunch is that the real crisis will approach in 2019.

TPP will narrowly beat RCEP

    Since Trump let the United States withdraw from the TPP a year ago, the latter’s future has been in doubt. However, after reaching an agreement in Vietnam in November last year, the remaining 11 member states, headed by Japan, have a strong desire to complete the agreement in the first quarter of this year. Officials from TPP member states said that this may mean pushing the agreement aside from Canada, which hindered the conclusion of the agreement on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Da Nang. Therefore, the "cowardly game" is coming. However, the progress of the TPP negotiations in 11 countries is far ahead of the RCEP negotiations, which has long been regarded as a China-led response to the TPP.

It will be difficult for African countries to complete the African continent trade agreement

    The member states of the African Union agreed in 2012 to establish a single market that would include more than 1 billion people, 55 countries, and US$3.4 trillion in economic output. Last year they did not conclude the agreement as originally promised. It is not clear whether the situation will improve this year.

The EU will sign a new trade agreement with Mercosur and Mexico

    For many years, the plan to sign a trade agreement with the Latin American trade zone has been a joke in Brussels. However, the arrival of the new Argentine government and the intention of the European Union to take advantage of the weakness of the US negotiating agenda are changing the considerations surrounding this plan. At the same time, the European Union and Mexico have great incentives to renew their 17-year-old bilateral trade agreement before the Mexican presidential election in mid-year. The two parties announced after their meeting in December that they were "very close to reaching" an agreement.