- 2021-06-02
Eurozone economic recovery
According to the announcement on April 12, the euro zone’s business investment rate in the fourth quarter of last year was 23.5%, an increase of 1.5% from the previous quarter. The business profit rate of enterprises increased by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. During the same period, the economic growth rates of all major member countries have improved, and the euro zone's GDP has increased by 1.8% year-on-year. Germany, known as the "locomotive", grew its economy by 0.5% in the fourth quarter of last year. France also achieved a growth rate of 0.4%.
In terms of unemployment rate, the Eurozone has also achieved good results recently. The employment situation in the Eurozone continued to improve in February this year, with the unemployment rate dropping to the lowest level since May 2009. Specific data show that the unemployment rate in the euro zone in February 2017 was 9.5%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, and the number of unemployed fell by 140,000. Simultaneously released data show that the EU unemployment rate in February fell by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, reaching a low of 8.0%. This also set the EU's lowest unemployment rate in eight years.
In March of this year, the growth rate of manufacturing in the Eurozone also accelerated significantly, reaching the highest level since 2011, with the Italian manufacturing PMI rising to the highest point in the past six years. The growth rate of private sector economic activity in Germany in March was the fastest in the past six years, while the growth rate of corporate activity in France in March was also higher than expected and hit a six-year high.
Regarding the inflation rate, mainly due to the slowdown in energy price growth, the Eurozone inflation rate unexpectedly fell to 1.5% in March, down 0.5% from the previous month.
Sauter Dawaz, a senior researcher at the Belgian think tank Brygge Institute for Economic Research, also said that not only a series of recent data, but from the economic data of the past two years, the euro zone's economic recovery has taken shape. "If monetary and fiscal policies that are conducive to growth continue to be implemented, this recovery will be sustained and even strengthened."
It's too early to consider exiting the stimulus policy
Analysts said that the European Central Bank's implementation of the ultra-low interest rate and quantitative easing bond purchase program has had a significant effect. The acceleration of economic growth and the obvious relaxation of the credit environment have made the labor market turn for the better. However, as the economic situation improves, the negative effects of this policy are being magnified, and calls within Europe for the central bank to weaken or even end the quantitative easing policy continue to rise.
Weidmann, a member of the European Central Bank Management Committee and the governor of the German Central Bank, made it clear that with the economic recovery of the euro zone, whether it is necessary for the European Central Bank to maintain the stimulus policy is worth discussing. "In view of the predictable prospects for a sustained and strong economic recovery in the Eurozone, coupled with the growth of household consumption, it is time for the European Central Bank to consider how to adjust its monetary policy to gradually normalize it." Weidman said.
However, Euronews commented that “the effect of the European Central Bank’s stimulus policy is gradually showing, and it is still too early to consider withdrawing the stimulus policy.”
Regarding this issue, the European Central Bank emphasized that it is not appropriate to withdraw from the stimulus policy on the issue of promoting economic recovery in the region, but it is feasible to moderately reduce the scale of bond purchases. "Because the risks and uncertainties facing the future economic growth of the Eurozone have not been significantly reduced, in order to avoid unexpected blows to the economic recovery process, supporting the economic activities and growth of enterprises in the region also requires continuous injection of central bank liquidity. Therefore, the European Central Bank will Continue to inject liquidity into the market, and the continued stimulus policy will continue at least until the end of this year." European Central Bank President Draghi told the media a few days ago.
The analysis believes that in view of the uncertainty of the European political situation and the incomplete recovery of the economy, it is not appropriate to expect the European Central Bank to end its quantitative easing policy early.
Development prospects are still full of uncertainties
Although economic data shows that the current economic situation in the euro zone is improving, the European Central Bank also stated that the prospects for economic development are still full of uncertainties, and the risks faced by the future development of the euro zone cannot be ignored.
From the perspective of the EU, the European debt crisis has not yet ended. Negotiations between international creditors, including the European Union, and Greece are still continuing. Structural problems in the Eurozone have not yet been resolved, and the imbalance of internal economic growth continues. The economic growth of the Netherlands, Germany and other member states is stable and sustainable. However, the performance of southern European countries such as Greece and Spain is not stable.
As a common currency, the euro needs to be supported by a common political concept across Europe. However, the UK has officially launched the Brexit procedure at the end of last month. "The negotiation process full of unknowns will directly affect the flow of funds, trade and investment between the two parties and from other parts of the world. Political uncertainty will have an impact on the EU economy." One of the mainstream EU media, "European Dynamics" commented .
Judging from the Dutch general election held in March, populism has been halted, and the result of the general election seems to be beneficial to the stability of Europe. However, in the "election year", the political situation in the euro zone is not clear, and market sentiment remains cautious. The French presidential candidate Le Pen, known as the "European Threat", even once threatened that more and more Europeans are aware of the euro's containment of economic development. If elected, they will lead France to withdraw from the euro zone and use a new currency. "If this becomes a reality, then the future reform hopes of France and the EU will come to an end." Reuters commented.
From the perspective of the outside of the EU, as an important trading partner and main export destination of the EU, after a change in the US trade policy, once imports are drastically reduced, it will directly affect the future exports of the Eurozone.
According to the latest data released by Eurostat, due to the impact of trade protectionism, in January 2017, Eurozone exports have fallen by 0.4% month-on-month, and the trade surplus has fallen from the previous 23.1 billion Euros to 15.7 billion Euros. In addition, the interest rate hike cycle initiated by the Fed has caused international funds to flow out of the euro area, which will undoubtedly have a negative impact on the euro area’s economic recovery.