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This is a substantial step taken a year since the Brexit referendum, but it seems to be nothing short of a thing-the results of the general election on June 8 have almost shattered the confidence of Brexit supporters. The British government led by Theresa May was determined to "hard Brexit", but the result of the "suspended parliament" forced them to lower their stance.

    British Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond called on Britain to pay special attention to industrial and commercial interests in Brexit negotiations. He believes that Britain’s approach to Brexit should be a gentle and smooth advancement, rather than a “cliff-jumping” risk.

    "In fact, Brexit is a failed proposition, and it is harmful to the United Kingdom and the European Union," wrote Soros, a financier, in a letter to the British Post. He called on Theresa May to at least allow Britain to stay in the EU single market for the time being.

Confidence in negotiation goes down

    Hammond publicly criticized Teresa May’s earlier claim that “no agreement is better than a bad agreement” and warned that Brexit would be a “very bad result” if the UK did not reach an agreement. “A common sense is, We should reach this place by a rope, not by a cliff," he said.

    But in fact, the leaders of EU member states are now worried that with the current precarious ruling position of the British Conservative government, it is difficult to reach a viable agreement on Brexit negotiations. In other words, the United Kingdom is likely to be unable to obtain any agreement. Brexit.

    The defeat of the populist parties in the general elections in the Netherlands and France and the latest victory of the new French President Macron in the legislative elections have given Brussels confidence in the future of the European Union.

    On June 19, the results of the French legislative elections were announced. Macron’s Kadima Party won 308 seats out of the 577 seats in the National Assembly, and its coalition Democratic Movement Party won 42 seats, obtaining an absolute majority in the parliament with an "incredible" advantage.

    This means that Macron will be able to promote the reforms of the French labor market, taxation and pension system in accordance with his commitments during the general election, improve France’s productivity and investment attractiveness, and lay a good foundation for bolder reforms in the euro zone. basis.

    German Foreign Minister Gabriel (Sigmar Gabriel) said that the UK now has a chance to achieve a "soft Brexit", allowing the UK to enter the single market after officially leaving the EU, but his premise is to require the UK to accept at least the freedom of movement of EU citizens. .

    Some analysts pointed out that, compared with the Brexit issue, the European Union, which has regained its confidence, is more concerned about how to further integrate and consolidate the European Union under the leadership of the French-German engine. Recently, the leaders of France and Germany have jointly outlined a new "road map" for the European Union. In the next two to three years, as France smoothly carries out structural economic reforms, Germany will lead the strengthening of financial unity within the European Union and the establishment of the European Monetary Fund. Organize and allow the EU to play a new role in the field of foreign policy and security and defense.

Britain’s position remains unclear

    The comments of Belgian Foreign Minister Didier Reynders may be representative. In his view, EU leaders are still uncertain about the goals of the British negotiations. While welcoming the final start of Brexit negotiations, he said, "We are waiting for a clear British position."

    For Brussels, there is no doubt that the guarantee of the rights of 3.5 million EU citizens living in the UK is the first priority in the Brexit negotiations. The President of the European Council, Tusk, has repeatedly claimed to provide real guarantees for EU citizens living, working and studying in the UK.

    The EU has listed immigration rights, "divorce fees" and the border of Northern Ireland as the top priorities in Brexit negotiations. The United Kingdom has repeatedly insisted that negotiations on future trade relations must be carried out simultaneously, but under the current circumstances, it has had to accept this position of the EU. .

    The European Commission expects that EU citizens will continue to have the same rights in the UK as before, including recognition of academic and professional qualifications, freedom of work, business, and immigration, and full access to British citizens in terms of access to medical insurance, pensions and other social benefits. Equal treatment.

    The EU is willing to mutually recognize the above treatment with the UK. In relative terms, 1.2 million British citizens currently live in the European Union. The EU also hopes that the above-mentioned rights apply to the “current and future family members” of EU citizens, regardless of their nationality. For the British government, at least this is unacceptable.

    Jonathan Portes, a senior researcher at a British think tank, believes that although immigration rights are relatively easy to negotiate, there are still serious practical obstacles to the EU's claims.

    The UK Home Office introduced strict minimum income requirements for spouse and family visas in 2012. The fact is that EU citizens are more likely to bring their non-EU spouses and other immediate family members into the UK than British citizens. The British government has been unable to correct this seemingly absurd problem. It has repeatedly stated that it will expand the income threshold and conduct English tests on spouses of British non-EU citizens.

    But the plan to limit the number of immigrants has aroused strong dissatisfaction with the business community. Many research reports have warned that the plan to restrict immigration will not only cut off the most important source of labor in the UK, but will also aggravate the current shortage of manpower in some key industries.

    Another important question is whether the UK will pay sky-high "divorce" bills? The EU believes that the UK “owes” between 55 and 75 billion euros, most of which are unpaid budget commitments by the UK, but the UK only agreed to pay a small portion of the cost.

    A transitional agreement is also crucial. The UK will leave the European Union in March 2019, but the future relationship between the two parties, including trade agreements, may require years of negotiation. Before the new trade agreement comes into effect, temporary arrangements are definitely needed to allow the continued flow of goods, services, capital and data. The European Union believes that the United Kingdom must accept the free movement of people, budget contributions and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice during this transition period. Will the UK agree to this condition? In addition, how the UK will maintain the future status of the City of London and whether it can obtain a special agreement for financial services is still undecided.