new economy

　　

"Escaped the Great Depression, but fell into a depression", this is the judgment made in 2014 by the Nobel Prize winner in economics and a professor at Columbia University Joseph Stieglitz. Thanks to the joint actions of global policymakers, the world economy has successfully avoided falling into an economic dilemma similar to the "Great Depression" of the 1930s. However, the long-term weakness of the global economic recovery has become the new normal in the post-crisis era.

 　 Ten years have passed since the US subprime mortgage crisis broke out in 2007. Although still facing challenges such as rising trade protectionism and increasing political risks, the global economy has finally ushered in the dawn of a "major sluggishness", and the global economic growth pattern is more balanced and the momentum is stronger.

The global economic recovery may usher in an inflection point

 Whether it is the "major malaise" described by Stieglitz, the "new mediocrity" described by the President of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Lagarde, or the former U.S. Treasury Secretary and Harvard University professor Summers said " "Long stagnation" describes the same economic phenomenon in the post-crisis era, that is, the weak global economic recovery.

 　 Take the United States as an example. Since it emerged from the recession in June 2009, the U.S. economic expansion has entered its ninth year, becoming the third-longest economic expansion cycle in U.S. history. But the recovery is still tepid. During the eight-year expansion period, the US economy grew by only about 18%. In the expansion cycle from 1991 to 2001, the US economy grew by 42.6%.

 　 The same is true for the global economy. According to the chart provided by the World Bank, there have been two major stages in the global economic recovery in the past decade: First, it showed a "V" shape from 2007 to 2010. After bottoming out in 2009, the global economy once achieved a strong rebound; but since 2010, it has been present. Following an "L"-shaped weak trend, the recovery was gradually reduced in 2011 and 2012, and 2016 was the lowest growth rate since 2009.

 　 However, ten years after the subprime mortgage crisis broke out, the global economy has ushered in the dawn of a weak recovery this year. "Spring is here, and the spring of the global economy is also here." This is Lagarde's opening remarks at this year's IMF and World Bank spring meeting. According to the latest IMF data, the global economic growth rate is expected to reach 3.5% and 3.6% this year and next.

 　 The data in the field of international trade and investment are also quite exciting. The World Trade Organization predicts that this year's global trade growth rate will reach 2.4%, much higher than last year's 1.3%, and it is expected that the growth rate will further increase next year. In the field of investment, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development predicts that global foreign direct investment will increase by 5% this year, and it will fall by 2% last year.

Multiple engines boost world economic growth

 "This is the first time that all the growth engines have been launched at the same time." Rajan, the former Governor of the Bank of India and a professor at the University of Chicago, noted that from Asia, Europe to the Americas, the global economic engines are operating at the same time. And for a long time after the subprime mortgage crisis broke out, the global economic recovery relied more on China and the United States. In the IMF's latest economic forecast report, the growth expectations of the Eurozone, Japan, and emerging economies have all been raised.

 　 With the end of general elections in major Eurozone member states such as France and the Netherlands, and the ebb of populism, the political risks faced by the European economy have dropped significantly this year. After exiting the second recession in 2013, the European economy finally began to exert strength this year. According to Eurostat data, the Eurozone and EU economies rose to 2.1% and 2.2% year-on-year in the second quarter of this year.

 　 The Japanese economy, which has been silent for many years, also showed a positive momentum this year. The economy expanded for the fifth consecutive quarter in the first quarter. Analysts predict that Japan’s economic growth rate calculated at an annual rate in the second quarter may rise sharply to more than 2.5%.

 　 In terms of emerging economies, according to the latest forecast of the IMF, the economic growth rate of emerging economies and developing countries will reach 4.6% this year, and will further rise to 4.8% next year. Among them, China's economic growth rate for the next two years is expected to be 6.7% and 6.4%, respectively, which is an increase of 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous forecast.

 　 Both Russia and Brazil are gradually getting out of the quagmire of economic recession. By the first quarter of this year, the Russian economy has grown for three consecutive quarters, while the Brazilian economy has reversed its recession for eight consecutive quarters. India, whose economic growth has slowed down under the influence of the "Abandonment Order", is also expected to regain its rapid growth momentum this year.

 　 Of course, today's global economy is still facing a series of challenges such as the rise of trade protectionism and the unclear policies of the new US government. However, compared with the past ten years, the global economic growth pattern is more balanced and the momentum is stronger.

China becomes the mainstay of the global economy

 　 Ten years back from the outbreak of the first loan crisis, when the United States and Europe fell into financial and debt crises successively, China became the economy that contributed the most to global growth. From 2013 to 2016, China’s average contribution to world economic growth reached more than 30%, exceeding the combined contribution of the United States, the Eurozone and Japan, and ranking first in the world.

 　 China's economy grew by 6.9% in the first half of this year. "We are seeing very strong growth," IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld told Xinhua News Agency reporters. "The growth rate of 6.9% in the second quarter also exceeded expectations."

 　 More importantly, China's ongoing reforms will further enhance economic competitiveness and sustainable growth capabilities. In the 2017 World Competitiveness Rankings released by the Lausanne International School of Management, Switzerland, China's ranking jumped from the 25th in 2016 to the 18th. The agency believes that China's reforms have promoted opening up and increased productivity.

 　 Looking back over the past decade, China has gradually moved to the center of the global economic arena, and China’s increasing influence has become an irreversible trend. A chart produced by the US new media website "Visual Capitalism" using World Bank forecast data shows that between 2017 and 2019, China's contribution to global economic growth will still rank first, reaching 35.2%; while the US's contribution is expected to be 17.9%, only about half of China's.