- 2021-06-10
IMF announces global economic improvement
"The global economic recovery may not last, because not all countries have experienced an economic recovery. Of particular concern is the'long-term inflation rate below the target', which deepens the downside risks to the medium-term economic growth prospects of advanced economies. There are many in the world. Locally, such as some euro zone countries, the medium-term economic prospects are still disappointing."
On October 24, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that the global economic situation has continued to improve, and it has raised its expectations for global GDP growth in 2017 and 2018.
As for global GDP growth forecasts in 2017 and 2018, the IMF expects global GDP to grow by 3.6% and 3.7% in 2017 and 2018, respectively, compared to the previous expected growth of 3.5% and 3.6%, which is significantly higher than the 3.2% in 2016. Global growth rate (the lowest level since the global financial crisis).
Maurice Obstfeld, IMF economic adviser and director of the research department, said that the global economic recovery continues to accelerate and the recovery is not over yet.
Policymakers in various countries should seize the opportunity of this economic recovery. Encourage countries to use the current favorable environment to increase their growth potential and provide a buffer for the next economic downturn.
Global cyclical economic recovery accelerates
The latest "World Economic Outlook" released by the IMF raised China's 2017 GDP growth forecast to 6.8%, compared with the previous forecast of 6.7%; raised its 2018 forecast to 6.5%, compared with the previous forecast of 6.4%. Raise the 2017 GDP growth forecast for the United States to 2.2%, compared with the previous forecast 2.1%; raise the 2018 forecast to 2.3%, compared with the previous forecast 2.1%.
The IMF stated in the report that because of “the policy uncertainty is great,” the IMF does not expect the US Congress and the President to pass tax reform plans. Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce recently showed that the U.S. economic growth rate in the second quarter was slightly revised up, with GDP growing at a rate of 3.1% month-on-month (market estimate is 3%); this was the fastest since the first quarter of 2015.
Developed regional economies outside the United States, Japan, and the Eurozone have all been adjusted upwards. Raise the Eurozone GDP growth forecast in 2017 to 2.1%, compared with the previous forecast of 1.9%; raise the 2018 forecast to 1.9%, from the previous forecast of 1.7%.
Raise Japan's 2017 and 2018 GDP growth forecasts to 1.5% and 0.7%, respectively, compared with previous expectations of 1.3% and 0.6%.
"World Economic Outlook" stated: "The current situation is significantly different from the beginning of last year, when world economic growth was stagnant and financial markets were turbulent. We are now seeing the cyclicality of Europe, China, Japan, the United States, and emerging Asian economies. The economic recovery is accelerating."
But Obersfield said the global recovery may not be sustainable. Even with the current increase in interest rates, global economic growth is still increasing, but not all countries have participated in the growth. At the same time, inflation is below the target and wage growth is slow, so the medium-term forecast is not particularly optimistic.
He said that central banks in developed countries should maintain loose monetary policies until inflation shows signs of stabilization. However, inflation in some countries remains at a mystery low.
All major economies are growing
This year's global economy has shown several trend characteristics: First, the world economy as a whole is recovering, and emerging economies and developing countries are the main forces driving the strong recovery of the global economy; second, the shrinking of the US balance sheet is an important symbol, and the global loose currency The policy is brewing to withdraw gradually and enter the track of "reducing debt, raising interest rates, and deleveraging"; third, the era of skyrocketing and plummeting global commodity prices may have basically ended. In the future, oil, natural gas, energy, etc. may be in a long period of time. Equilibrium fluctuations in the region; fourth, the conversion of global new and old kinetic energy is accelerating; fifth, the Chinese factor is becoming increasingly important in world economic growth.
This year, the world’s major economies will achieve positive growth. The Wall Street Journal described this as an "extremely rare phenomenon in the past 50 years." This year's economic growth is "a very important factor is the large amount of monetary support from central banks", and factors such as technological innovation and technological development cannot be ignored.
From the perspective of the external environment, the economic situation in 2018 is still complicated, but there are more and more positive factors: the global economy has opened a new round of recovery and growth cycle; the US economy and foreign policy thinking has become increasingly clear; Uncertainty after the end of the German election has dropped significantly; the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike caused the dollar to appreciate sharply, and the large-scale return of capital to the United States has not occurred; the "Belt and Road" initiative has received widespread response from the international community; multiple geopolitical conflicts have emerged as normal Trends and so on.
In 2018, there are many uncertainties and instabilities in the global economy, and economic worries are mainly reflected in: the trend of anti-globalization continues to develop and play a role; major countries in the world may begin to withdraw from quantitative easing monetary policies, and capital tightening will cause considerable financial risks. ; The economies of some countries may experience greater fluctuations, and these fluctuations will also have a greater impact on the world economy.
From the perspective of large economies, Japan and India are the most worthy of attention.” Japan’s negative factors include consumption tax increases, long-term negative interest rates, and aging society. In India, it is worth noting that banknotes, gold forfeiture, and state-owned banks. Privatization, etc. In addition, local wars and conflicts, another round of national elections in 2018, and natural disasters and infectious diseases have also added uncertainty and instability to economic growth.