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Recently, French Minister of Economy Le Maire said in an interview with local media that the French government will lower its 2018 economic growth forecast from 2% to 1.7%, and France's overall economic growth is once again falling into a state of weakness.

 　 Le Maire said that the French economy is still facing multiple uncertainties. In particular, factors such as rising international oil prices and a series of domestic strikes in the first half of the year have brought negative effects on the steady economic growth, resulting in continued weak economic development.

    In view of this, the French government decided to lower its 2018 economic growth forecast from 2% to 1.7%. However, Le Maire also showed a positive attitude towards future economic development. He pointed out that given that the average growth rate of the French economy in the past 10 years was only 0.8%, the 1.7% growth rate is not too bad, but France still needs to strive for a stronger economic performance.

 In recent years, the French economy as a whole has shown a recovery trend. In 2017, the French economy grew by 2.3%. Although the recovery process is still fragile, it has reversed the previous embarrassment of long-term weak growth and set a new high since 2011. The market atmosphere and expectations continue It is heating up, and many economic agencies predict that the good recovery momentum of the French economy is expected to be consolidated in 2018.

    However, various statistics from the French Statistical Office since the beginning of the year show that the strong economic growth in France in the first half of 2018 was unexpectedly "misfire". The economic growth rate in the first two quarters was only 0.2%, although the growth rate in the third quarter is expected to reach 0.4%. However, it has been difficult to make up for the growth gap left before, resulting in the actual growth rate for the whole year being lower than expected.

 　 The Bank of France also recently announced that it has lowered France’s economic growth forecast for this year and next, and believes that the simultaneous slowdown of domestic and foreign demand will continue the weak economic growth until 2020. At the same time, the French media analyzed its internal reasons and believed that the obvious slowdown in French economic growth in 2018 was caused by the dual effects of internal and external factors.

 　 From a domestic perspective, first, under the trend of temporary rise in overall inflation, the slowdown in household investment and declining consumption have made the endogenous momentum of the French economic development insufficient, and the overall situation is weak. This situation is likely to continue until 2020. Second, the deep-level structural reforms currently being implemented by the French government are continuing to bear pressure from all parties, severely restricting the effectiveness of government reform measures, and directly impacting the domestic economy due to various waves of social protests.

    In this regard, Julian Bourguet, head of the Macroeconomic Department of the French Statistical Office, once said that the French economic growth rate had slowed down significantly in the second quarter, especially under the influence of the transportation system strike, which caused damage to accommodation, catering and wholesale trade. A certain restriction. Le Maire also emphasized: "The various strikes in France this year have caused a negative effect of about 0.1% on economic growth, which is'not to be ignored'." Third, the overall debt situation in France is still severe, which severely restricts economic development. Quality and sustainability, and unbalanced public finances will severely constrain the government's economic reform effects, and it will also make it difficult for the government to achieve a "policy balance" in reducing deficits and stimulating the economy.

    According to the "Echo" report, the huge debt scale and severe deficit reduction tasks are continuing to increase government pressure and force the government to increase its public budget deficit target. In this regard, Le Maire recently announced that France's public debt in 2018 will reach 2.6%, higher than the previously set 2.3% target. He explained that this was "a change caused by the government's absorption of part of the debt of the French national railway company."

    According to data from the French Economic Statistics Agency, although the proportion of France’s fiscal deficit has fallen in 2017, the overall public debt is still rising. In 2017, the total debt accounted for 97% of the GDP, compared with 96.6% in 2016. Some increase, not far from the 100% warning line, the public debt in the third quarter of 2018 alone has reached 2,255.3 billion euros.

 　 From a foreign perspective, the ongoing tensions in the world trade sector have inhibited the vitality of the French export sector. Previously, the European Central Bank’s downward adjustment of the euro zone’s external demand also reflected that the rise of trade protectionism is having a negative impact on France and Europe.

    According to a report previously published by the French Treasury, France’s external demand has been vigorous since 2018, but compared with the development trend of the world’s major trading entities, there is still a huge gap in terms of trade volume and sustainability, especially its The high dependence on imported products has hedged the development dividend of the export sector and delayed the overall trade's driving force for economic development.

    At the same time, energy prices continue to rise, especially the rise in international oil prices, which is increasingly putting greater pressure on France’s current account, directly causing a huge account gap of about 2.2 billion euros, and making France’s dominant manufacturing industry face higher costs, affecting related issues The sector’s export performance and international market competitiveness.

 　 Facing the "weak state" of economic growth, the French economics community has also made suggestions and suggestions, calling on France to promote economic reform measures "internally and externally" to consolidate the pace of economic recovery.

    The heads of the French Employers’ Association and Economic Research Institute suggested in an interview that one is to further reduce housing taxes, reduce medical insurance and unemployment insurance, and continue to stimulate a rebound in consumption, further increase the liquidity of capital, and stimulate the domestic supply and demand environment to rebalance. , To explore the growth potential of internal demand and make it a strong core for stable economic growth. The second is to further reduce the financial burden in the production field and fully stimulate the recovery of productivity. It is necessary to further reduce the tax burden on enterprises and production links, reduce enterprise operation and labor costs, and lay a foundation for related industries to enhance their competitiveness in the international market. The third is to promote the deepening of the reform of the domestic market structure, especially in the integration of service trade and the digital economy, to enhance France's competitiveness in the field of innovative economy, and to expand the new growth point of the French economy.