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On February 11, the United Kingdom and Switzerland signed the "United Kingdom-Switzerland Trade Continuity Agreement" to maintain the reciprocal terms of trade between the two countries after the "Brexit". At present, the annual trade volume between Britain and Switzerland amounts to 32 billion pounds (1 pound is about 8.7 yuan), and Switzerland is the third largest market for Britain outside the European Union. The agreement signed this time is the largest trade agreement since Britain’s “Brexit” referendum. It is of great significance to the British economy, especially to British companies. Preliminary statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics on February 11 show that the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by only 1.4% last year, the slowest growth year since 2012. This shows that the risk of a "no-deal Brexit" has clearly harmed the British economy.

 Some analysts pointed out that the current risk of Britain’s “no-deal Brexit” has increased sharply, which makes it more urgent for the United Kingdom and third-party countries to re-discuss trade agreements. International trade will be affected. As a member of the European Union, the United Kingdom benefits from about 40 existing EU trade agreements, which cover more than 70 countries and regions around the world. As the UK’s “Brexit” counts down, the British government is intensively signing relevant trade agreements with third countries.

 　 Andrew Suntens, a former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, said that the British economy is being dragged down by the risk of a “no-deal Brexit”. The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom shows that, compared with the 1.8% growth rate in 2017, the growth of British gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018 has further slowed down to only 1.4%; the initial value of the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2018 was 0.2%, lower than the 0.6% growth rate in the previous quarter. The data also showed that the British economy shrank by 0.4% month-on-month in December 2018, and the service industry, industrial production and construction all declined.

 　 The British auto industry is an industry sector that is largely affected by the risk of “no-deal Brexit”. Not long ago, Japanese automobile company Nissan announced that it would abandon its plan to produce "Xijun" sports utility vehicles in the UK, causing shock in the industry.

    Gianluca Defiji, President of Nissan Europe, said that the continued uncertainty in the future relationship between the UK and the EU does not help the company to plan for the future. British Secretary of Commerce Greg Clark said the news was "a blow to the industry and the region."

    Last summer, Germany's BMW also postponed its annual "maintenance plan" for its British plant to April this year. BMW said that this arrangement "will enable us to cut off any possible parts supply in the context of a'no-deal Brexit'." The risk is minimized". BMW mainly produces "MINI" models in the UK, with 90% of its parts coming from continental Europe. If tariff barriers emerge after the "Brexit", production costs will greatly increase.

    Prior to this, Liam Fox, the British Secretary of State for International Trade, stated on many occasions that after Brexit, the United Kingdom could immediately sign new trade agreements with relevant countries, but the British government recently admitted for the first time that this goal cannot be achieved. British media reported that once the "no-deal Brexit" becomes a reality, the British government will implement stimulus measures such as internal tax cuts and external tariff cuts to boost the economy.

    However, the "Financial Times" stated that British economists generally believe that "Brexit" will bring a loss of 1.5% to 2.5% of British GDP. The Bank of England Bank of England stated that the probability of a recession in the UK in the first half of 2019 is as high as 25%.

The British government strives to avoid a no-deal Brexit

Less than two months after Britain officially "Brexit" on March 29, it is still unknown whether Britain can "have an agreement to leave the European Union". The British government is still struggling to bridge domestic differences and has an active dialogue with the European Union in an effort to avoid no-deal Brexit.

If Britain leaves the European Union disorderly, industries such as the automobile and finance are expected to be greatly adversely affected. The British business community represented by these industries is increasingly anxious.

There are 186,000 direct employees in the British automobile manufacturing industry, and its annual direct contribution to fiscal revenue is 20.2 billion pounds. According to data released by the British Automobile Manufacturers and Dealers Association recently, due to the uncertainty of "Brexit", in 2018, the investment in the British automobile industry plummeted by 46.5% compared with 2017, to only 588.6 million pounds (1 pound is about 1.3 pounds). U.S. dollars); automobile production fell to 1.52 million, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%, the lowest in 5 years. The chief executive of the association, Mike Horse, stated that the UK must maintain economic and political stability to ensure the future growth of the auto industry and mutually beneficial trade relations.

Fearing the impact of Britain’s departure from the European Union, since the referendum on Britain’s “Brexit” in June 2016, more and more companies in the British business community are considering moving their business overseas. At present, British companies are particularly worried that if the United Kingdom finally "leaves the European Union without a deal," British companies may not be able to withstand all kinds of uncertainties and chaotic situations.

The British "Guardian" quoted survey data from the British Institute of Directors that 29% of British companies decided to move some of their business overseas, believing that this move would help alleviate the negative impact of "Brexit". Among them, most companies have set their sights on European Union member states, intending or have already transferred part of their business in the UK to other EU countries.

The Dutch government confirmed on the 9th that the Dutch government's 2018 investment project attracted 42 companies and their branches to transfer their business from the UK to the Netherlands, involving 1923 jobs. Currently, more than 250 companies are discussing with the Netherlands to transfer their business from the United Kingdom to the Netherlands. Most of these companies are British companies. Some American and Asian companies are also reconsidering the structure of the European branch.