new economy

　　

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted that Myanmar’s economic growth rate will reach 8.6% in 2016, which will lead Asia and the world; the World Bank has predicted that Myanmar’s economic growth rate will reach 6.8% from 2018 to 2019, with an inflation rate. It will drop from 5.5% in 2017-2018 to 4.9%.

The predictions of authoritative organizations once aroused the excitement of Burmese people, as if earth-shaking changes could happen immediately after the country's transformation. The optimism of international institutions has also impressed other countries, as if the development potential of this "virgin land of Asia" in Myanmar will immediately usher in an unprecedented outbreak.

However, in August 2017, a violent terrorist incident occurred in the Rakhine State of Myanmar. The military and police forcefully quelled the chaos and maintained stability, triggering hundreds of thousands of border residents to flee to Bangladesh, most of them "Rohingya" who believe in Islam-they claim to be "Rohingya". It is the "Rohingya nation", and neither the official nor the people in Myanmar recognize it as a ethnic minority in Myanmar, but only call it "Bingri", which means people of Bangladeshi origin.

What followed was that Myanmar was violently criticized by Western public opinion, and the National League for Democracy (NLD) government led by Aung San Suu Kyi was uncharacteristically suppressed by Western countries.

At the same time, Myanmar's domestic criticism of the NLD’s administration and bad news of economic development has gradually become a very lethal atmosphere of public opinion. This is: I am optimistic about the two heavens, and the opinions are divided.

Not so good, but good performance

The incident in Rakhine State has put the Burmese government under tremendous pressure both at home and abroad, and has somewhat affected the socio-political ecology of Burma. The society’s negative comments on the government’s governance are increasing, and the economic "underperformance" or even "the present is not as good as before" seems to dominate the public opinion.

Objectively speaking, Myanmar's economy is not as good as previously predicted by international agencies, but it is not as bad as Myanmar society now thinks. Since the Democratic League came to power on April 1, 2016, its economic policies have not undergone fundamental changes, and the market economy policies that have been implemented for nearly 20 years have been maintained. Relevant economic data shows that in the first fiscal year of the Democratic League (April 2016 to March 2017), Myanmar’s economy has grown by 6.5%, which is equivalent to the average of the five-year term of the previous government led by U Thein Sein. The level of economic growth is roughly the same. In the 2017~2018 fiscal year (April 2017 to March 2018), Myanmar's economic growth rate is generally believed to reach about 7%. The main basis includes that Myanmar will attract more than 6 billion U.S. dollars in foreign investment in this fiscal year, and the total import and export volume will exceed 30 billion U.S. dollars, a record high. In addition, many professional organizations predict that in the next few fiscal years, Myanmar's economy will continue to perform well. The economic change from optimistic to bad news often reflects not all economic changes, and is often mixed with political factors and popular feelings.

In international affairs, the NLD government led by Aung San Suu Kyi adheres to an independent non-aligned foreign policy, attaches importance to good-neighborly relations, attaches importance to friendship with China, and attaches importance to the balance of great powers. This undoubtedly disappoints Western countries and the intensity of support will follow. Weaken.

At the same time, Myanmar's domestic factors cannot be ignored. Ordinary people have high expectations of the NLD’s governance, believing that their lives will be greatly improved after the NLD comes to power, but the reality is that they do not have that much sense of gain, which has led to an increase in complaints from the people. In addition, the opponents of the NLD will not let go of such a political opportunity and criticize the administration of the NLD to fuel the flames. Neutral Myanmar economic experts once commented that the NLD government’s governance is in fact not particularly “excellent” and not particularly “capable”, but it can be said that it has done its best and the Myanmar economy has “performed well”.

Not all dreams

Observing and analyzing the economic development of Myanmar, one should not underestimate its natural endowment and development potential. Myanmar is the second largest country in Southeast Asia, with abundant resources, a relatively small population, and potential for development. In the 1950s, Myanmar's economy once led Southeast Asia. Singapore’s late Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew made an oath in the early days of Singapore’s independence: Singapore will surpass Myanmar within 20 years.

In November 2016, Aung San Suu Kyi, the State Counsellor of Myanmar (equivalent to the Prime Minister of the NLD Cabinet), said during a visit to Singapore, "I want to reverse what Mr. Lee Kuan Yew said. It will take 20 years for Myanmar to surpass Singapore." Someone. I think this is Aung San Suu Kyi's rhetoric, and even regarded it as a "political joke", but in fact, this is not entirely a dream.

Researchers of the Xinhua News Agency’s World Issues Research Center analyzed and compared the trajectory of changes in the nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of the two countries’ dollar nominal GDP based on the IMF, the World Bank, the Singapore Bureau of Statistics and the Myanmar Bureau of Statistics on the economic development of Myanmar and Singapore, and found that Singapore used In 2011, it surpassed Myanmar for the first time in nominal GDP in US dollars in 1972. In the past 10 years, Myanmar’s nominal GDP in US dollars has increased by nearly 20% annually, compared with 8% in Singapore.

Based on this calculation, the following three situations may arise: first, if calculated according to the average annual growth rate of the two countries in the past 10 years, Myanmar’s total nominal GDP in US dollars can surpass Singapore in only 14 years; second, if it is calculated according to Singapore’s The future growth rate is better than the performance of the past 10 years, and Myanmar remains unchanged. In 17 years, Myanmar can still catch up with Singapore; third, if Myanmar’s future economic performance is worse than the past 10 years, and Singapore remains unchanged, In this case, after 23 years of hard work, Myanmar's nominal GDP in US dollars can still exceed that of Singapore.

"One Belt One Road" opportunity cannot be missed

In order for Myanmar to achieve rapid economic development in the future, it needs to work in four areas: First, Myanmar must maintain long-term political and social stability, without major disturbances; second, even if lasting peace cannot be achieved immediately, it must maintain government forces. There is no major war with many ethnic minority armed organizations; third, there is no fundamental change in economic policies (the current market economy policy is a basic policy accepted by all parties and all walks of life, and there is no possibility of fundamental changes. ); Fourth, Myanmar must integrate into the development process of the region and the world, and make good use of the development opportunities of the outside world.

A Myanmar expert pointed out that China is still Myanmar’s largest trading partner country and Myanmar’s largest source of foreign investment. The strengthening of mutually beneficial cooperation between China and Myanmar is conducive to the rapid development of Myanmar’s economy and is fully in line with the fundamental interests of the two peoples. China's "One Belt One Road" initiative is undoubtedly a good opportunity for Myanmar's rapid development.

In November 2015, on the 9th day after the NLD's victory in the general election, Aung San Suu Kyi accepted an exclusive interview with a reporter from "Global" magazine. She expressed her appreciation for the “Belt and Road” initiative, saying that she knew about the Silk Road when she was a child, which is very artistic and romantic. In May 2017, Aung San Suu Kyi was invited to attend the “Belt and Road” International Cooperation Summit Forum in Beijing, expressing the Myanmar government’s active participation in the joint construction of the “Belt and Road” initiative.

Today, Myanmar has entered a new period of suspenseful history. There is no reason for Myanmar's economy to be bad, and its development potential should not be ignored. The prospects are very promising.