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Asean manufacturing expansion will be affected by supply chains

  

The global manufacturing purchasing managers' Index (PMI) for Asean countries was 52.8 in April, up from 51.7 in March, according to the latest data report released by S&P Global. It was the seventh consecutive month of gradual improvement above 50, reversing two consecutive months of declines. Seven ASEAN countries -- Singapore, the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia and Myanmar -- all registered pmIs above 50, marking the first time for overall expansion. However, factors such as supply chain problems and inflationary pressures are likely to hamper further expansion in the region's manufacturing sector.

Data show that the manufacturing sector in Asean countries such as Singapore and Malaysia has accelerated its expansion recently, with steady growth in production and new sales in the manufacturing sector, both at historically high levels. While new orders for goods and output rose, employment at manufacturing firms also rose. Manufacturers added workers at the second-fastest pace on record as rising consumer and social demand combined with new orders and backlogs of work.

Maryam Baruch, global economist at S&P, said stronger customer demand supported new orders and increased output, which in turn boosted employment in the sector. After two consecutive months of contraction, employment is expanding at a near-record pace.

Singapore's manufacturing PMI expanded faster than other ASEAN countries for the fifth consecutive month in April, second only to the all-time high recorded in February this year, rising to 58.1 from 55 in March, according to the report. The Philippine manufacturing PMI rose to 54.3 from 53.2 in March, indicating the sector expanded at its fastest pace in more than four years. Indonesia's manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9 from 51.3 in March, marking a slight expansion and the eighth consecutive month of expansion. Thailand's manufacturing PMI edged up to 51.9 from 51.8 in March, marking the fourth consecutive month of expansion. Vietnam's manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 51.7. Malaysia's manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6 from 49.6 in March, indicating a rebound from contraction to expansion. Myanmar's manufacturing PMI expanded at the slowest pace, but returned to expansion for the first time in the past 20 months. Myanmar's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in April from 47.1 in March, after staying below the 50-point mark for 19 consecutive months.

While improved production capacity helped manufacturers in ASEAN countries increase purchasing activity for the seventh consecutive month, lifting input purchases in April, pre-production inventories fell for the second consecutive month, although the decline in April was small, according to S&P economists. Meanwhile, suppliers' on-time delivery deteriorated for the 27th consecutive month, with average delivery times increasing but waiting times moderating. The increased uncertainties facing the world could further undermine current growth

In terms of prices, input costs and output prices of manufacturing in ASEAN countries continued to increase substantially. Although April's rise was down from a record high in March, price pressures on manufacturing companies remained high due to continued global inflation and supply-side challenges from input shortages, rising fuel and raw material prices. Some companies have passed on some of the cost burden to customers by raising prices, the survey showed.

S&p's April survey showed that manufacturers' outlook for the next 12 months remained generally positive, with the business confidence index above the historical average. Still, factors such as ongoing supply-chain challenges and inflationary pressures in many countries, as well as increased global uncertainty, will hinder the expansion of manufacturing in ASEAN countries, according to Maryam Baruch.