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The German "Handelsblatt" website recently published an article saying that US President Trump is "torturing" his own country's economy. Trump's trade policies are creating uncertainty in the United States, and the likelihood of a recession in the United States is increasing.

The uncertainty created by Trump's aggressive austerity measures and tariff policies is making American consumers and businesses more cautious. Market participants noted that "it is only a matter of time before economists downgrade their forecasts for U.S. economic growth," with fears of declining growth and a recession triggered by Trump's policies already dominating discussions on Wall Street.

At present, a number of data points show that the US economic sentiment is changing. First, consumer confidence in the United States is falling in anticipation of tariffs and consequent price increases. According to the Conference Board data, the US consumer confidence index was 98.3 in February this year, significantly lower than 105.3 in January, and the decline is the same as in August 2021. Consumers were more pessimistic about their financial future as well as the labor market.

Second, although the first quarter of the year is not yet over, the Atlanta Fed's forecasts are already causing a stir. According to the Atlanta Fed's latest calculations, the economy will shrink by more than 2% in the first quarter of this year. At the beginning of the year, the Atlanta Fed said it expected the economy to grow by more than 2% in the first quarter of this year. Market participants said it was too early to make reliable estimates, but the change in direction was significant.

In addition, concerns about slowing economic growth in the United States this year are also reflected in crude oil prices. Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell to its lowest level in three years this month, reflecting heightened concerns about slowing economic activity after Mr Trump began imposing tariffs.

Finally, America's capital markets are showing signs of turbulence. Many investors had hoped that Trump would boost stock prices when he took office this year, but that excitement has now waned. Us indices have all given up gains made since the presidential election in early November. Erstwhile stock market stars like Nvidia and Apple have been hit particularly hard. Overall, share price volatility is significantly higher than last year. The US stock market is fragile, and investors have little confidence that share prices will recover quickly.