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BEIJING, June 19 (Xinhua) -- The World Bank has lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.7% in January to 2.3%, and has also reduced the growth rate expectations for nearly 70% of economies. This has made it another mainstream international institution that is pessimistic about the global economic growth outlook.

Since the beginning of this year, many international institutions have lowered or repeatedly lowered the global economic growth forecast, and they generally attribute the uncertainty of the U.S. trade policy as a major reason. Economists believe that the U.S. government's series of unilateral tariff policies have disrupted the global economic order and brought great uncertainty to the global market, exacerbating global economic risks.

A decline in growth rates has become a common expectation

In its latest "Global Economic Prospects" report released on June 10, the World Bank predicted that the economy of developed countries would grow by 1.2% this year, 0.5 percentage points lower than previously forecast. Among them, the growth rate of the U.S. economy was expected to drop from the previous 2.3% to 1.4%. At the same time, the growth rate of emerging markets and developing economies was expected to be 3.8%, 0.3 percentage points lower than previously forecast.

When commenting on this reduction, the senior vice president and chief economist of the World Bank, Indrajit Ghosh, said, "This will be 'the worst performance in 17 years except for a global economic recession'."

On June 3, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released its latest economic outlook report, predicting that the global economic growth rate for 2025 and 2026 would both be 2.9%, 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points lower than the forecast value in March.

The OECD pointed out in the report that economies such as the United States, Canada, and Mexico have experienced a more significant slowdown. In 2025 and 2026, the U.S. economy is expected to grow by 1.6% and 1.5%, respectively, 0.6 and 0.1 percentage points lower than the forecast value in March.

On May 19, the European Commission released the 2025 Spring Economic Outlook report, predicting that due to the weak global trade outlook and the rising uncertainty of the U.S. trade policy, the actual gross domestic product (GDP) of the EU will grow by 1.1% in 2025 and 0.9% in the Eurozone in 2026; the EU economy will grow by 1.5% in 2025 and 1.4% in the Eurozone in 2026, both of which have been lowered from the previous forecast.

On April 22, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest "World Economic Outlook Report", lowering the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, 0.5 percentage points lower than the forecast value in January. The report shows that the growth rate of developed economies is expected to be 1.4% in 2025 and 3.7% in emerging markets and developing economies, both of which have been lowered by 0.5 percentage points from the forecast value in January.

The IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said recently that the uncertainty of the Trump administration's trade policy has exacerbated the global economic headwinds. The World Bank's "Global Economic Prospects" report pointed out that global economic growth is slowing due to trade barriers and an uncertain global policy environment, and the global economy is once again entering turmoil.

The chief economist of the OECD, Alvaro Santos Pereira, believes that from the data in mid-May, the actual tariff rate imposed by the United States on imported goods has significantly increased compared to a year ago, reaching "the highest level since 1938"; if the previously announced "counter-tariff" is fully implemented, the tariff level of the United States will be "the highest since the 19th century 90s".

An article in the U.S. "Boston Globe" pointed out that the recent reduction of global growth rate expectations by international institutions highlights the cost of the U.S. trade war. The OECD pointed out in its latest economic outlook report that in the past few months, trade barriers and economic and trade policy uncertainties have significantly increased, negatively affecting business and consumer confidence and hindering trade and investment. The IMF's latest report believes that the tariff measures introduced by the United States are themselves a "major negative shock" to the global economy.

A recent poll released by the Harris Poll Center at Harvard University and the American Political Research Institute in the United States shows that the majority of voters believe that the tariff policy is the "biggest failure" of the new administration in the United States. World Bank Deputy Chief Economist Ahhan Kosse said that the uncertainty brought by U.S. tariffs is like "mist on the runway", dragging down the pace of global investment and dimming the economic outlook.

Dialogue helps dispel uncertainty

The IMF analysis suggests that the escalating downside risks dominate the economic outlook. The escalation of trade wars and the increase in trade policy uncertainties may further weaken the short-term and long-term growth prospects, and the weakening of policy buffer capacity will reduce the resilience to future shocks.

Ralph Ossa, the chief economist of the World Trade Organization, said in an interview with the German "Economic Weekly" that the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy has a significant impact on the global economy. It is estimated that global commodity trade volume will decline by 0.2% this year. "Everyone in the trade war is a loser."

The OECD suggests that all countries should work together to address uncertainty. The first step is to avoid further trade divergence and trade barriers. Reducing trade tensions, lowering tariffs and other trade barriers will help restore growth and investment.

The European Commission's 2025 Spring Economic Outlook report states that if the trade tensions between the EU and the United States can be eased, or if the trade growth between the EU and other countries accelerates, it will support economic growth. The EU will further promote reforms to enhance competitiveness, such as deepening the single market, establishing a savings and investment alliance, and promoting administrative simplification measures, thereby enhancing the resilience of the EU economy.

In the opinion of World Bank Deputy Chief Economist Ahhan Kosse, although uncertainty still exists at present, there are indications that dialogue in the trade field is increasing, which may help dispel uncertainty and that supply chains are adapting to the new global trade map.

Source: Xinhua News Agency