- 2025-09-19
Data halved, various interpretations: "The US economy is sliding towards the brink of a recessi
[Special Correspondent Wang Pinzhi of Global Times] The preliminary adjusted data released by the US Department of Labor on the 9th shows that in the year ending in March 2025, the growth of employment in the US was far less vigorous than previously reported. The latest US non-farm employment data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that in the past 12 months, the total number of new non-farm jobs in the US has decreased by 911,000 compared to the previously released figures, and the employment numbers in almost all industries have been lowered.
The survey reveals that the average number of new non-farm jobs added in the US each month is only 71,000, a significant decrease of 76,000 compared to the previously released monthly increase of 147,000. The US media stated that the above annual data adjustment has reduced the overall employment rate in the US by approximately 0.6 percentage points, which is the largest decline since 2009, further increasing the pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
In recent days, bad news about the US job market has been coming one after another. Data released by the US Department of Labor last Friday shows that in August this year, the growth of employment in the US slowed significantly, and the unemployment rate reached 4.3%, close to the peak in the past four years; in addition, in the US labor market this year, there was a decrease in job positions, which was the first time in the past four and a half years.
The latest non-farm employment data has exacerbated concerns about the health of the US economy. James Nattray, the chief international economist at ING, said this indicates that the growth momentum in the US labor market is weakening, and the foundation of the labor market is even weaker than previously thought.
Christopher Rupkey, the chief economist at FWDBONDS, a financial market research company, stated that the US economy is sliding towards the brink of a recession. "It's as close as it can get to a recession now," he said. He also stated bluntly: "Clearly, companies are slowing down and refusing to hire new employees."
Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, believes that the relevant data further prove that the US is "fighting against economic slowdown". He said: "The economy is weakening. It's not easy to determine whether it will eventually lead to a recession or just a weakening of the economy."
Reuters analyzed that the current US employment market is plagued with problems. One is the uncertainty of trade policies, which has left many enterprises at a loss. The second is that Trump's policies have intensified immigration control, weakening the labor supply. Additionally, the ongoing artificial intelligence and automation transformation process is also suppressing the demand for labor.
After the data was released, the White House stated that the new report proved that the Bureau of Labor Statistics "has failed". The US economy has suffered a heavy blow under the previous president Biden, and it further urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
International investment bank Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist Mike Wilson made a more explicit statement in a research report this Monday: For many enterprises and consumers, the actual situation of the US economy over the past three years is much worse than the nominal GDP and employment rates and other prominent economic data show.
