new economy

　　

According to an article published in the Economic Times of India, Subhash Chandra Garg, Secretary-General of Economic Affairs of India, said: "By 2025, India will become a $5 trillion economy. We expect the actual growth rate of the Indian economy to be 7% to 8%. And its declared economic growth rate is 9% to 10%."

    Is this possible? It is still possible.

    At the Davos Forum, Indian Prime Minister Modi quoted International Monetary Fund (IMF) data to confirm his own words. According to IMF data, since 2014, India’s GDP has grown steadily at an annual level of 7%. Modi pointed out that compared with 1997, the growth rate has increased by six times. Subhash Chandra Garg, Secretary-General of Economic Affairs of India, said: “By 2025, India is ready to double its economy to US$5 trillion.” Garg said in a panel discussion: “I think we will be It is very feasible to achieve the economic goal of $5 trillion, and it is also a reasonable goal."

    He said: "In the past few years, India’s macroeconomic development has been relatively stable, and exports have also begun to rise. The Indian government has worked hard to control the inflation rate at 4%, with a fluctuation range of 2%. In order to make full use of this stable In the macroeconomic environment, and to achieve the goal of 5 trillion US dollars, the Indian government needs to improve its quotas in global import and export trade. With the growth of global trade, India must show a good side."

    He added: “In addition to focusing on the strong growth of traditional sectors such as the textile industry, India also needs to focus on the development of the service industry in an increasingly competitive global economy.”

    He said: "Considering the current increase in crude oil prices in the market and the suppression of prices by the government's fiscal measures, India's inflation rate of about 4% will not cause damage. The inflation rate set by the Bank of India fluctuates within a range of plus or minus 2 %. Although China’s GDP is growing at a rate of 7% to 8%, the country pays more attention to investment in start-ups, SMEs and infrastructure, and the country can achieve faster economic expansion. At present, India’s economic scale At US$2.5 trillion, it is the sixth largest economy in the world."

    Garg said at the Global CII Industry Association Summit: “If India’s economy focuses on producing goods and developing service industries, and continues to expand demand in the next 7 to 8 years... I think that by 2025, India’s economy will be able to scale Reaching $5 trillion is a reasonable goal."

    According to estimates, India’s GDP growth rate in the current fiscal year is 6.6%, while the country’s GDP growth rate in the 2016-2017 fiscal year is 7.1%. The main reason for the slowdown in India's economic growth is the commodity and service tax implemented by the Indian government and the abolition of large-value banknote circulation reforms, which have hindered the development of the market economy to a certain extent.

    As a result of these measures, the Indian economy has suffered a certain impact. In the first quarter of last year, India's GDP growth rate was 5.7%, the second quarter GDP growth rate was 6.5%, and the third quarter GDP growth rate was 7.2%.

    At a previous meeting in New Delhi, the head of the relevant department of the Indian government said: "From a medium-term perspective, I am pretty sure that India’s GDP growth rate will be much faster. We will reach an economic growth scale of 5 trillion US dollars within 7 years. Goal. In this regard, India’s manufacturing sector will contribute US$1 trillion, the service sector will contribute US$3 trillion, and the remaining contribution will come from the agricultural sector. The promotion of these sectors will increase the value of India’s economic growth in 2025. It reached the goal of 5 trillion U.S. dollars before. After that, India’s economic growth value will reach 10 trillion U.S. dollars in 7 to 10 years. I believe that India will become a huge world’s major economy in the future.”

    Garg said: "In terms of inflation, we have been very successful in approaching this inflation target, and we have not seen any significant risks associated with this."

    In February, the inflation rate of retail commodities fell to a four-month low of 4.44%, and the inflation rate in January was 5.07%. Controlling the increase in the inflation rate can effectively curb price increases. However, analysts believe that India’s core inflation rate has been hovering at 4.5% since the rise in global crude oil prices in January last year posed an upside risk to inflation.

    In addition, the implementation of the country’s budget plan will increase the benchmark price of rainy season crops to 1.5 times the cost, monsoon rains and unfavorable base effects (for most of 2017, India’s consumer price index inflation rate (All lower) will boost the inflation rate of India’s economy in the next few months. The spillover effect of the Indian government's fiscal deficit has declined in 2018, which will bring certain headwinds to the economy. It is expected that in the future, the development trend of the Central Bank of India will be stronger.

    Currently, the Central Bank of India’s goal is to reduce its fiscal deficit to 3% between 2020 and 2021, and it previously claimed to achieve this goal between 2018 and 2019, although the bank’s Minister of Economic Affairs has hinted , This goal will be achieved before the 2020 fiscal year. According to the revised data, India’s fiscal deficit will reach 3.5% of GDP in the 2017-2018 fiscal year, which is higher than the previously forecasted target of 3.2%.