- 2018-10-12
American "Judo"-style economic warfare?
The Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China met on July 31 to analyze the current economic situation and economic work. It seems that it is very hesitant about the impact of the current Sino-US trade war on economic growth in the second half of the year, and requires "fiscal policy to play a greater role" and monetary policy to "maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity."
The "deleveraging" policy has also undergone some changes. It seems that although the general direction of the policy remains unchanged, it will slow down. This is good news for the "steady growth" group, but bad news for the "suppressing inefficient investment and excess debt" group.
Over the past five years, China’s macroeconomic policies have oscillated between “stabilizing growth” and “restraining inefficient investment and excess debt.” Although the "new normal" policy to change the growth model was more effective in 2014 and 2015, by 2016, due to the investment impulse brought by the popularity of PPP, its effectiveness has declined, real estate speculation is feverish, and financial transactions are unbalanced. A series of malpractices were exposed. Therefore, the “deleveraging” policy was restarted in 2017, but a year later, the Sino-US trade war was encountered, and the deleveraging would slow down again.
Although there have been many cases of default of urban investment bonds in the first half of the year, it should be expected to improve in the second half of the year. It is accurate that the believers of "just redeeming" can reconfirm their beliefs, but those who hesitate about the problem of excess debt should hate the launch. President Trump of the US trade war.
Japanese experience
Japan has also experienced that its economic policies have been greatly affected due to trade disputes with the United States. It is symbolized by the "Plaza Accord" and comes from the pressure of appreciation of the yen from the United States. In fact, the "Plaza Accord" is only one of the several times Japan has been pressured by the United States to appreciate the yen.
In China, many friends agree that "the United States, threatened by the rise of the Japanese economy, set a trap for Japan" and that "the Japanese economy lost its vitality and fell into the "lost 20 years", and regarded it as the overturning of the previous vehicle. , To learn the lessons of "Never easily liberalize the exchange rate and capital account".
The author has a different feeling. The pressure on the appreciation of the yen imposed by the United States does torture the Japanese economy and Japanese companies, but the exchange rate always has both good and bad sides. The appreciation of the yen is a disaster for the manufacturing industry, but it is a boon for consumers to increase their purchasing power.
In the long run, even the manufacturing industry can benefit. The Japanese manufacturing industry has to invest and build factories overseas due to the impact of the appreciation of the yen several times. As a result, the "internationalization" of the Japanese manufacturing industry has made substantial progress. The trade surplus has shrunk significantly, but as an alternative, the swelling investment income from overseas also supports Japan’s larger surplus in international current payments. Without the appreciation of the yen and the pressure it brings, Toyota will not develop into a global company.
Looking at it this way, there are always good and bad sides to the exchange rate. However, in Japan, the manufacturing industry has always had a strong voice. Every time the appreciation of the yen is regarded as a "national crisis", the government is "must have countermeasures." a lot of pressure. Especially in the second half of the 1980s, the pressure for the appreciation of the yen and the demand for countermeasures were extremely strong. Japan ignored the negative effects and excessively relaxed its finances, causing a bubble, and finally encountered its burst. This was the "lost 20 years". the real reason.
American "Judo"-style economic warfare?
Besides, is it true that the United States has set a trap for Japan? The author has two conflicting feelings.
On the one hand, if Japan does not focus so much on preventing the appreciation of the yen and does not lose the balance that its economic policy should have, Japan can avoid the bubble and its bursting, so it is a responsibility to blame the United States for the subsequent economic depression. The sense of.
But on the other hand, after several experiences, American politicians and speculators all know that "Japan’s Achilles heel (key) is the appreciation of the yen.” Every time the US-US trade friction heats up. At that time, there was an expectation of the appreciation of the yen in the market, and American politicians often incited this statement.
After seeing through "Japan's Achilles' heel is the appreciation of the yen", the United States has adopted tactics similar to the ancient Japanese judo. Judo, as an ideal, is not to use one's own strength to bring down the opponent, but to use the opponent's weight and movements to make him fall. Therefore, the later use of Japan's Achilles tendon to exert pressure by the United States was a "judo-style economic war."
Return to China again. Whenever the economic growth rate drops, China, which mobilizes its finances in a panic and looses its currency, is much like Japan, which viewed the appreciation of the yen as a national crisis and overreacted its policies more than 30 years ago. It seems to be propagating "My Achilles". The heel is like growth decelerating. Seeing this, whether the Trump regime or mainstream Americans who increasingly see China as a threat, they might even think of launching a "judo-style economic war" against China. It is to launch a trade war whenever China's economic policy shifts to deleveraging, stimulating the uneasiness of slowing growth and delaying deleveraging. It has been postponed twice since two years ago. If it is postponed two or three more times, irreparable damage will occur on China's national balance sheet, which can reduce the vitality of China's economy for a long time.