Expert Perspective

　　

Hours after Prince Mohammed bin Salman was appointed crown prince, the world saw the young prince kissing the hands and thighs of his former crown prince’s cousin. In the recent history of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, this is the most sudden susceptibility to storage.

    "I will always need your guidance and advice," the 31-year-old prince told his cousin Mohammed bin Nayef (Mohammed bin Nayef) at the palace in Mecca. The latter not only lost his position as the first heir to the throne, but was also revoked from his position as Minister of the Interior. Mohamed bin Naif patted Wang's brother on the shoulder and said that he can rest now.

    This meticulously arranged ceremony is to show the outside world a united royal family as the Saudi royal family undergoes an anti-traditional power transfer that is reshaping the Saudi leadership. Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil producer and an important ally of the United States. This time, Prince Mohammed can directly inherit the throne of King Salman, the octogen father. This time when the prince promotes many ambitious plans to bring Saudi Arabia into the post-oil era, this time It also consolidated his power base.

What will the new Saudi crown prince bring to the Middle East?

    "Although it has been brewing for a while, this easy storage is still the most significant personnel change within the Saudi ruling family in 50 years," Christian Coates Ull of Rice University in Texas Kristian Coates Ulrichsen said, “If it goes well, this move will allow Mohammed bin Salman to rule Saudi Arabia for decades and decisively reshape the kingdom.”

    In this extremely conservative kingdom that has been ruled by the House of Saud since its founding in 1932, the rise of Prince Mohammed is extraordinary.

    Three years ago, Prince Mohammed, who was little known outside the royal circle, was appointed by his father as Minister of Defense in January 2015 and was appointed deputy crown prince three months later. At this time, he emerged in this autocratic monarchy.

    Since then, the millennial prince has emerged as the most powerful figure behind the throne. His goal is to free the Saudi economy from dependence on oil. To this end, he is planning to sell some of the shares of Saudi Aramco (Saudi Aramco), which is expected to become the world’s largest initial public offering (IPO). ). As Riyadh began to pursue an increasingly tough foreign policy, he also led Saudi Arabia to participate in the Yemeni civil war.

    Gregory Gause, a professor at Texas A&M University, said: "This is an act of concentrating power in the hands of a single member of the royal family, an approach unprecedented since the creation of this modern kingdom."

    But this time Yi Chu also marked the transition of generations in the Saudi Kingdom's "Power Corridor". Since King Saud was deposed in 1964, succession to the throne has proceeded in an orderly manner among the sons of the founder of the kingdom, Abdulaziz Ibn Saud. If Prince Mohammed inherits his father’s throne, he will become the first king in the third generation of the Saudi ruling family.

    The royal decree also appointed 33-year-old Abdulaziz bin Saud bin Nayef as Minister of the Interior, a key role in Saudi Arabia, which has long struggled with extremism.

    Analysts say that as Prince Mohammed-regarded as his father's most preferred son-becomes the first successor to absolute power, it will be easier for him to clear internal resistance for his $72 billion reform plan. The plan's vision is: by 2020, 1.2 million private sector jobs will be created; and the role of the government will be reduced.

    He believes that the sale of 5% of Saudi Aramco's shares (the time is set in 2018) is crucial. The sale of shares not only provides funding for its "Vision 2030" plan, but also for a broader set of 200 billion yuan. The US dollar privatization plan sets the tone-in Saudi Arabia, government spending dominates the entire economy.

    But this Yi Chu coincides with one of the most turbulent periods in modern history in the Middle East. The plunge in oil prices has severely hit the Saudi economy, with an unemployment rate exceeding 12%; Riyadh’s two-year military operation against the Houthi rebels in Yemen has cost Saudi Arabia in casualties and billions of dollars, but little progress has been made; Saudi Arabia and Relations between the arch-enemy Iran are also extremely tense.

    In June, Saudi Arabia led an embargo against neighboring Qatar because Qatar was suspected of supporting terrorism. It is widely believed that the promoters of this extremely risky political action are the foreign policy hawk Prince Mohammed, and his closest regional ally, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed of the United Arab Emirates (Mohammed bin Zayed). ). This action has triggered the most serious crisis in the Gulf region in years, and has pitted all important US allies against each other.

    Prince Mohammed still needs to convince many Saudis that tough austerity measures and sensitive social reforms are necessary to ensure stability. A former diplomat in Saudi Arabia said: "He is facing many economic problems, and now he has added domestic security issues, but his answer has not convinced many people.

    "The younger generation needs to cooperate to change the existing system, not confrontation. There is no longer a leader in this team."