Expert Perspective

　　

One of the underreported incidents this year was the opening of a new railway freight line. In early January, a freight train loaded with Chinese-made goods departed from Yiwu, Zhejiang, China. After about 18 days and traveling through 7 countries, the train arrived at a freight station at the east end of London nearly 7,500 miles away. Although it is not clear whether this latest modern Silk Road is economically worthwhile, it is not important. Most importantly, this journey declared China's geopolitical intentions.

    In fact, multiple trains were used to complete this trip. Taking into account the different gauges, cargo containers must be changed at different locations, and finally they have to pass through the Channel Tunnel. It is not yet clear how often this train runs, although the operator claims that the freight service provided by this line is much faster than sea freight and much cheaper than air freight. One trip a month seems to be the initial goal. Not long ago, similar routes to Hamburg, Madrid and other continental European cities have been opened. However, the opening of the London line is a remarkable achievement.

    This freight line-along the ancient Silk Road that passed through Central Asia, Russia, Belarus, and Poland into Western Europe-is unlikely to have a decisive impact on the current trade pattern. But what is important is the psychological role-a railway network that shortens the distance between Asia and Europe. There is also the grand plan of Chinese President Xi Jinping. Xi Jinping hopes to eliminate the border between Asia and Europe and bring the wealthy European countries closer to China.

    There is a simple way of expression in foreign policy circles: the 20th century is called the "Atlantic Century." This general view also believes that the 21st century will belong to the Pacific. In the last century, as Europe and the United States formed an alliance across the ocean, global wealth and power were mainly concentrated in the countries along the North Atlantic. But now, prosperity and power have begun to shift east and south. The term "Pacific Century" seems to fit the rise of China.

    But only partially. Yes, in the South China Sea, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is reclaiming the sea to build islands and building military bases to expand its projection capabilities in the Western Pacific; indeed, conflicts between China and the United States are likely to break out in these waters. But these tensions misread Beijing's main ambitions. Beijing's goal is to go west, not east.

    Xi Jinping's "big chess game" is hidden in his "One Belt, One Road" concept-the reconstruction of maritime and land transportation routes in the early era of globalization. Looking to the future, China envisions an era in which the vast land of Eurasia has become an important fulcrum of global power. So, guess who will become the core Eurasian player?

    Until his death this year, Zbigniew Brzezinski, who served as the national security adviser to former US President Jimmy Carter, has been Washington's sharpest strategic thinker. He realized the importance of the "central axis supercontinent" (his own words) early on. As early as 1997, he wrote: "The countries that dominate the Eurasian continent... will be able to control two of the three most advanced and economically developed regions in the world-Western Europe and East Asia... Power on the Eurasian continent. Distribution will be of decisive importance to the United States' global dominance and historical heritage."

    It is easy to see why he is so worried. Eurasia-the historical division of the two continents is based more on tradition and culture rather than geographical boundaries-accounts for more than one-third of the world's land area and approximately 70% of the global population. Most of the world's energy and other natural resources are stored here.

    In some people's eyes, the "Belt and Road" plan points to a bunch of different goals-economic and strategic. Therefore, the construction of a railway through Myanmar can provide China with a passage to the sea, bypassing the strait of Malacca (Strait of Malacca). Building a new port in Pakistan will allow China to directly connect to the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf. A large number of infrastructure projects in Central Asia and Africa are aimed at digesting China’s excess industrial capacity and obtaining raw material sources. The Chinese government hopes to expand its presence in Europe through new investment channels.

    Some companies that go global are successful, others are not—as James Kynge said; China seems to be better at driving trains than building new railways in other countries. The Chinese government cannot expect everything to do what it wants. One day, Moscow will tire of its status as a secondary partner in the "China-Russia Axis." Moreover, in the process of China's rise in Eurasia, India cannot easily give way.

    But for Beijing, the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. The "One Belt, One Road" initiative is China's path to a dominant position in Europe and Asia. Moreover, God is favoring Chinese leaders. In the White House under Donald Trump, the combative isolationism seen as foreign policy provides Beijing with an opportunity to let go. Brzezinski’s concern is that if there is no strategy to promote its own interests through the checks and balances of the alliance, the United States will hand over the Eurasian continent to other countries and eventually become a major country trapped in its own hemisphere. Such geopolitical considerations have not been taken seriously in the White House under Trump. Beijing couldn't believe that it had such good luck. As the United States withdrew, China made its presence felt by the outside world. Suddenly, the term "Eurasian Century" became a bit interesting.