- 2021-03-10
Can Trump aspire to the White House?
In India, the world's largest democracy, many voters are illiterate, so each party has its own logo. The symbol of the Congress party is the palm with the palm facing outwards, the Bharatiya Janata is the lotus flower, and other political parties have their own logos. Those illiterate voters pressed their handprints on the logos of the political parties they supported.
I often wonder which logo best reflects the message Donald Trump wants to convey. The Democrats will use the rainbow as a symbol to express the diversity represented by the Democratic Party. Traditional Republicans will use the American eagle as a symbol to show their patriotism—or perhaps Ronald Reagan's portrait. Trump will use the middle finger as a symbol to express his supporters' views on politics. "Donald" (The Donald, Trump's nickname) is their view of Washington. Any other visual symbols will not work.
The unnamed fire in the central United States has become the standard interpretation of the 2016 election situation: blue-collar voters are extremely indignant and feel betrayed. Trump became their reckless vent. But this explanation may be as wrong as some common views that have been abandoned earlier.
Trump's supporters are not on a whim. Voters who support Trump are expressing their thoughtful contempt to professional politicians. The more Trump offends the emotions of professional politicians (this offense is frequent), the more effective he will be. These voters are saying: "Even Trump is better than you. That's how we despise you."
People often point out that among Trump's supporters, the proportion of voters without a college degree is obviously higher. This is a fact. But Trump's approval rating is so much ahead, so he attracts more college-educated Republican supporters than any other incumbent candidate.
Trump has attracted more nonpartisan and Democratic supporters than all other Republican candidates. His supporters are not necessarily racists. Some of his supporters are clearly racists-Trump also shamelessly catered to this impression. But I rarely meet Trump supporters who publicly declare that they are racist. Most Trump supporters oppose an amnesty for illegal immigrants, but few advocate that non-white legal immigrants should also be excluded.
What most Trump supporters have in common is their aversion to hypocrisy. The candidate they support has abandoned conventional campaign guidelines. He does not collect donations. He boasted that he didn't need donations.
In fact, he readily admitted that he had donated money to various candidates for commercial purposes. These donations bought their kindness. But "Donald" can never be "brought over."
Other candidates send a lot of e-mails, calling you a "friend" or calling you by your name, and promise to have a "talk" with you. Then they start asking you for money. By the standards of the mass mailing era, their approach is clever. But they are also pretending.
In a country of 320 million people, your chances of talking to Hillary Clinton are as slim as your chances of talking to Abraham Lincoln. Presidential candidates habitually deny that they will be influenced by wealthy supporters. Trump just brags about how rich he is.
"It's great. I don't need anyone's money. I use my own money," he said when he announced his election. "I don't need people to lobby or donate money. I don't care. I just have money." Supporters of Lampe said he may be a rogue, but his frankness is refreshing.
Regarding Trump, two other views are valued: 1) He will lose in the general election, and 2) His presidency will be a disaster. It is not wise to bet on the former. Unlike professional Republicans, Trump has cross-party appeal.
That's right, Gallup's survey showed that Trump's net opinion rate is -27, which is worse than any other potential nominee. Hillary's net favorability rate is -4. Trump is the most disliked figure in American politics as a whole. But the voters who support him may also love him most strongly.
In an era of polarization, the ability to get people to vote is more important than chasing swing voters without margins. Trump has a great deal of rebranding. If you consider that voters are still enthusiastic about him, it would be too rash to say that he is unlikely to win the election.
If he wins the nomination, it is not difficult to imagine that he would choose a non-white woman as his running mate—maybe the Republican governor of South Carolina and the descendant of Indian immigrant Nikki Haley (Nikki Haley). If there is another terrorist attack, it will make his argument more substantial.
If former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg runs as an independent candidate, some votes will be divided among elite voters on the east and west coasts, thereby further increasing Trump’s chances of being elected.
What if the unthinkable becomes true? How bad will it be if Donald Trump becomes president? Trump's aspiration to the White House will be a resounding distress signal from the health of American democracy. This is a common view, and I strongly agree with it.
By choosing Trump as president, the United States is raising its middle finger to the world. This will also negate many things that make the United States attractive. But will the government stop? Will special interest groups modify tax laws and control regulatory agencies? Will the political stalemate paralyze Washington?
Maybe it will. But as Trump supporters have pointed out, these situations have already happened. Why not admit it frankly?