Expert Perspective

　　

Thanks to the improvement of the external environment, the moderate rebound in commodity prices, and the strong domestic demand, the economies of emerging economies and developing countries continued to pick up in 2017, and the overall economic growth rate has increased. Among them, the major Asian economies have deepened structural reforms and their internal demand has strengthened, resonating with the global economic recovery, and the economic growth rate is cyclically upward; the Latin American economy is expected to end two consecutive years of recession and achieve recovery growth; Russia is After the turning point of the transition from recession to growth, it continued to stabilize and improve and entered a low-speed growth channel; West Asia and North Africa’s economies are in a critical period of reform, but due to geopolitical tensions and moderate increases in crude oil prices, economic growth momentum has weakened; sub-Saharan economic benefits As global commodity prices rebounded, the economic trends of major economies in the region improved, and economic growth stabilized.

      The World Economic Outlook published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October last year predicted that the economic growth rate of emerging markets and developing countries in 2017 was 4.6%, higher than the 4.3% growth rate in 2015 and 2016. Among them, the economic growth rate of emerging markets and developing countries in Asia last year was 6.5%, the CIS was 2.1%, West Asia and North Africa was 2.2%, and the sub-Saharan countries were 2.6%. When analyzing the reasons for the upward adjustment of global economic growth, IMF chief economist Morris Obersfeld acknowledged that emerging markets and developing economies "played a relatively large role."

      Looking forward to 2018, the economies of emerging economies and developing countries will generally improve. The IMF predicts that the economic growth rate of emerging economies and developing countries will further rise to 4.9% in 2018, reaching a five-year peak. Among them, the contribution of emerging economies to global economic growth is expected to reach 77%, an increase of 2% from 2017. The main risks faced by emerging economies and developing countries are that the adjustment of macroeconomic policies in developed countries may lead to capital outflows, currency devaluation pressures, increased global trade and investment protectionism and competitive tax cuts, as well as domestic political instability, extreme weather events, and terrorism. , Geopolitical risks and other non-economic factors, the recovery process cannot be described as smooth sailing.

Asia: Growth rate picks up and leads the world

      The overall situation of the Asian economy improved last year, and the economic growth rate rebounded slightly, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from 2016. The Asian economy is still an important engine for global economic recovery, and its economic growth rate is significantly higher than the global level, leading other economies, and is a major contributor to global economic growth. There are four main reasons for this: First, the warming of external demand provides external impetus for the growth of countries in the region. For example, the exports of many ASEAN countries have recovered, and the more outward the economy is, the sooner the recovery is. Singapore’s recovery is earlier than other ASEAN countries. Myanmar’s clothing exports have driven economic growth. The second is the improvement of domestic demand, which is reflected in the improvement of domestic private sector consumption and investment in varying degrees, as well as the cyclical prosperity of the real estate and construction industries. The improvement of household consumption has become the key to the improvement of the economy. For example, the recovery of private economy in Malaysia and Thailand has become the country. An important driving force for economic recovery. The third is that reform measures have boosted economic growth. For example, China has vigorously promoted supply-side structural reforms, and the "three removals, one reduction and one supplement" have achieved remarkable results and promote high-quality economic growth. The fourth is to attach importance to infrastructure construction. Railway projects in India, Indonesia, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam and other countries have started construction, which has stimulated economic growth. Among the major economies in Asia, India's economy is volatile. The first quarter of 2016 achieved a rapid growth of 9.1%, but the growth rate in the first and second quarters of last year has rapidly fallen to 6.1% and 5.7%. India's economic growth rate has fallen for five consecutive quarters, showing that the negative impact of the "abandonment order" continues to exist and exceeds expectations.

Russia: Out of the recession, stabilizing for the better

      Statistics from the Russian Ministry of Economic Development show that from the fourth quarter of 2016 to the third quarter of last year, Russia’s GDP has grown for four consecutive quarters, with the fastest growth in the automotive, pharmaceutical, chemical, food industry, and electrical equipment production. The quality of economic growth has improved. Russia has emerged from the economic recession for two consecutive years and has achieved positive growth. The growth rate is expected to be 1.8% last year. In terms of specific areas, Russia’s trade scale expanded last year and the effect of import substitution policies appeared. Goods imports and exports grew strongly. In the second quarter, exports increased by 23% year-on-year, and imports increased by 28% year-on-year. At the same time, domestic demand is gradually recovering, and the driving role of consumption is increasing. In the first quarter, final consumption increased by 2.1%, driving GDP by 1.5%, of which household consumption increased by 2.7%, government consumption by 0.4%, and consumer confidence index rebounded. In addition, total capital formation reversed its decline and achieved positive growth.

Latin America: Saying goodbye to shrinking and resuming growth

      Statistics from the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean show that after two consecutive years of recession, the Latin American region's economy is slowly recovering and achieving growth. The external reason is that world economic growth has accelerated, global trade has gradually recovered, and international commodity prices have gradually come out of the trough, which has improved the external demand in Latin America and promoted the growth of exports and investment in the region. It is estimated that last year Latin America’s exports will grow by 8% and imports will grow by 6%. From the perspective of the major economies in the region, the Brazilian economy is expected to grow by 0.5% throughout the year. Exports are the main driving force behind Brazil's economic growth. In the first nine months of last year, Brazil's exports increased by 18.1%. Loose monetary policy and low inflation have also brought positive stimulus to the economy. Mexico's economy maintained a steady growth trend, with a growth rate of 2.3% in 2016 and a growth rate of 2.8% and 1.8% in the first and second quarters of last year.